College Basketball Best Bets: Expert Picks for Tonight, Feb. 17
David Connelly
Host · Writer
We’ve got an intriguing MACTion matchup as undefeated Miami takes the court tonight, followed by a Big Ten battle between Michigan State and UCLA, making tonight’s postgame press conference a must-watch! Check it out as we prepare you for a thrilling slate of college basketball with expert betting insights, matchup analysis, & top picks.
Year to Date Record: 6-8 | Units: -2.33 (Minus-money plays are to win one unit, plus-money plays are one unit)
Dave Connelly is SportsGrid’s lead college basketball analyst with over five years of experience covering hoops, including his industry-leading transfer portal rankings and NCAA bracket predictions (seen on Bracket Matrix). An authority in Mid-Major Basketball, Connelly’s expertise extends well beyond the Power 5.
SportsGrid Expert Pick: UMass ML (+140)
Where to Watch #22 Miami (OH) vs. Massachusetts
- SportsGrid Matchup Page: M-OH vs. MASS
- Arena: Mullins Center
- Location: Amherst, MA
- Where to Watch: ESPN+
- Date: Tuesday, February 17th
- Time: 7:00 p.m. ET
#22 Miami (OH) vs. Massachusetts Betting Odds & Market Value
| Betting Market | Miami (OH) | UMass |
| Moneyline | -170 | +140 |
| Spread | -2.5 (-120) | +2.5 (-102) |
| Total (O/U 161.5) | Over -115 | Under -105 |
#22 Miami Ohio vs. Massachusetts Win Probability & Prediction Market Trends
| Market Metric (Kalshi) | Miami (OH) | UMass |
| Direct Win Probability | 61% | 39% |
| Cover Spread Miami (OH) -2.5 | Yes: 54¢ | No: 48¢ |
| Total 160.5 Points | Yes: 54¢ | No: 48¢ |
Real-time market data via Kalshi Prediction Exchange
We are calling the ultimate shot ahead of Tuesday night’s slate. Miami (OH) will suffer its first loss of the season on the road at UMass. The Minutemen gave the RedHawks one of their biggest scares of the season just three weeks back, falling by just two points in a game that hung in the balance for the majority of the contest.
They seemed to keep things close on the glass, force some key turnovers, and find success from beyond the arc in that first matchup. If they can tick those boxes once again, now inside their home gym, then the upset could be on here. It’s not the juiciest underdog moneyline you will find on the board tonight, but it would be a fun shot to call against the lone remaining undefeated team in the country.
SportsGrid Expert Pick: Michigan State -8.5 (-120)
Where to Watch UCLA vs. #15 Michigan State
- SportsGrid Matchup Page: UCLA vs. MSU
- Arena: Breslin Center
- Location: East Lansing, MI
- Where to Watch: Peacock
- Date: Tuesday, February 17th
- Time: 8:30 p.m. ET
UCLA vs. #15 Michigan State Betting Odds & Market Value
| Betting Market | UCLA | Michigan State |
| Moneyline | +118 | -142 |
| Spread | +2.5 (-112) | -2.5 (-108) |
| Total (O/U 134.5) | Over -115 | Under -105 |
UCLA vs. #15 Michigan State Win Probability & Prediction Market Trends
| Market Metric (Kalshi) | UCLA | Michigan State |
| Direct Win Probability | 21% | 79% |
| Cover Spread Michigan State -8.5 | Yes: 52¢ | No: 50¢ |
| Total 139.5 Points | Yes: 52¢ | No: 49¢ |
Real-time market data via Kalshi Prediction Exchange
This is one of those weird quirks in the Big Ten scheduling that must come when you have teams from the West Coast now in the league. UCLA is fresh off a 30-point spanking in Ann Arbor from Michigan, and now has to head to East Lansing just 72 hours later to face a talented Michigan State squad. UCLA head coach Mick Cronin has often shared his dismay about the traveling that has come with joining the Big Ten, and it’s rearing its head in a big way for this road trip.
This is their third trip out east of the season, and they are just 1-4 in those contests, losing three of them by double-digits. Expect Tom Izzo to have his Spartans ready for this one with an extra day of rest after a tough road loss to Wisconsin.
