College Basketball Best Bets: Expert Picks for Tonight, Feb. 14

We’ve got a marquee Big 12 showdown as Texas Tech battles Arizona, followed by a West Coast Conference clash featuring Gonzaga and Santa Clara to round out the night! Check it out as we prepare you for a thrilling slate of college basketball with expert betting insights, matchup analysis, & top picks.

Year to Date Record: 6-4 | Units: +2.18 (Minus-money plays are to win one unit, plus-money plays are one unit)

Dave Connelly is SportsGrid’s lead college basketball analyst with over five years of experience covering hoops, including his industry-leading transfer portal rankings and NCAA bracket predictions (seen on Bracket Matrix). An authority in Mid-Major Basketball, Connelly’s expertise extends well beyond the Power 5.

SportsGrid Expert Pick: Arizona -9.5 (-104)

Where to Watch #16 Texas Tech vs. #1 Arizona

SportsGrid Matchup Page: TTU vs. ARIZ
Arena: McKale Memorial Center
Location: Tucson, AZ
Where to Watch: ESPN
Date: Saturday, February 14th
Time: 6:30 p.m. ET

#16 Texas Tech vs. #1 Arizona Betting Odds & Market Value

Betting Market	Texas Tech	Arizona
Moneyline	+375	-500
Spread	+9.5 (-118)	-9.5 (-104)
Total (O/U 156.5)	Over -110	Under -110

#16 Texas Tech vs. #1 Arizona Win Probability & Prediction Market Trends

Market Metric (Kalshi)	Texas Tech	Arizona
Direct Win Probability	20%	80%
Cover Spread Arizona -9.5	Yes: 49¢	No: 53¢
Total 155.5 Points	Yes: 52¢	No: 50¢

Real-time market data via Kalshi Prediction Exchange

It’s a hefty spread to lay against another talented, ranked team, but some signs are pointing towards the Wildcats running away with this one. Texas Tech mightily struggles to get to the free-throw line as a team, ranking second-to-last in the Big 12 in free-throw rate, only ahead of Kansas State. Arizona ranks second in the league in free-throw rate on defense, meaning they prove to be disciplined when it comes to committing shooting fouls and allowing opponents to get into the bonus.

The Red Raiders have played seven teams inside the top 50 in free-throw rate allowed this season, and are 3-4 in those contests. This number has slightly come down from KenPom’s projection of an 11-point victory for the Wildcats, and we are happy to swoop in and buy low on perhaps the best team in the country. Lay the hefty spread and expect the free-throw discrepancy to play a major factor in the final score in Tucson.

SportsGrid Expert Pick: Santa Clara ML (+172)

Where to Watch #12 Gonzaga vs. Santa Clara

SportsGrid Matchup Page: GONZ vs. SCU
Arena: Leavey Center
Location: Santa Clara, CA
Where to Watch: ESPN
Date: Saturday, February 14th
Time: 10:30 p.m. ET

#12 Gonzaga vs. Santa Clara Betting Odds & Market Value

Betting Market	Gonzaga	Santa Clara
Moneyline	-210	+172
Spread	-4.5 (-110)	+4.5 (-110)
Total (O/U 158.5)	Over -110	Under -110

#12 Gonzaga vs. Santa Clara Win Probability & Prediction Market Trends

Market Metric (Kalshi)	Gonzaga	Santa Clara
Direct Win Probability	65%	35%
Cover Spread Gonzaga -3.5	Yes: 57¢	No: 47¢
Total 160.5 Points	Yes: 47¢	No: 56¢

Real-time market data via Kalshi Prediction Exchange

This is perhaps the biggest game that has ever been played inside the Leavey Center since its renovation at the turn of the millennium 26 years ago. The Broncos are a legitimate at-large hopeful entering the final weeks of the regular season, and a win over Gonzaga on Saturday night would do wonders for their resumé and put them on the right side of the bubble. Their only loss since Christmas came in a 12-point defeat at Gonzaga on January 8th, a game that was tied at halftime before the Zags pulled away.

On the flip side, this is going to be the most hostile environment the Bulldogs will play in all season. The concern arises when you look more closely at their 24-2 season. Gonzaga’s best true road win this season came back in November against an Arizona State team that sits 4-8 in the Big 12 and 69th on KenPom. They have not been tested on the road this season, and with much more to play for, we are willing to back Santa Clara to show up in their home gym.