College Basketball Best Bets: Expert Picks for Tonight, Feb. 11
David Connelly
Host · Writer
We’ve got an intriguing Southern Conference showdown between Wofford and Samford, followed by a Big Ten battle as Penn State takes on Washington to round out the night! Check it out as we prepare you for an exciting slate of college basketball with expert betting insights, matchup analysis, & top picks.
SportsGrid Expert Pick: Over 150.5 (-108)
Where to Watch Wofford vs. Samford
- SportsGrid Matchup Page: WOFF vs. SAM
- Arena: Pete Hanna Center
- Location: Birmingham, AL
- Where to Watch: ESPN+
- Date: Wednesday, February 11th
- Time: 7:00 p.m. ET
Wofford vs. Samford Betting Odds & Market Value
| Betting Market | Wofford | Samford |
| Moneyline | +184 | -230 |
| Spread | +5.5 (-118) | -5.5 (-104) |
| Total (O/U 150.5) | Over -108 | Under -116 |
Wofford vs. Samford Win Probability & Prediction Market Trends
| Market Metric (Kalshi) | Wofford | Samford |
| Direct Win Probability | 36% | 64% |
| Cover Spread Samford -4.5 | Yes: 50¢ | No: 51¢ |
| Total Over 148.5 Points | Yes: 56¢ | No: 48¢ |
Real-time market data via Kalshi Prediction Exchange
A key aspect of this matchup that works in favor of the over across all four units is turnovers. Both Wofford and Samford rank inside the top 25 nationally in turnover percentage, teams that do incredibly well to avoid any empty possessions or ones that are cut short by boneheaded mistakes. It often results in more shot attempts by both teams, which in turn leads to more baskets.
On the flip side, both defenses struggle to generate turnovers. The Bulldogs sit at 296th nationally, while the Terriers are even worse at 351st. Turnovers will be at an all-time premium in this matchup on Wednesday night, so use that to your advantage and back the over as both offenses should be getting plenty of shots up in this SoCon showdown.
SportsGrid Expert Pick: Washington Team Total Over 83.5 (-114)
Where to Watch Penn State vs. Washington
- SportsGrid Matchup Page: PSU vs. WASH
- Arena: Alaska Airlines Arena
- Location: Seattle, WA
- Where to Watch: Big Ten Network
- Date: Wednesday, February 11th
- Time: 10:30 p.m. ET
Penn State vs. Washington Betting Odds & Market Value
| Betting Market | Penn State | Washington |
| Moneyline | +660 | +1060 |
| Spread | +12.5 (-110) | -12.5 (-110) |
| Total (O/U 153.5) | Over -115 | Under -105 |
Penn State vs. Washington Win Probability & Prediction Market Trends
| Market Metric (Kalshi) | Penn State | Washington |
| Direct Win Probability | 13% | 87% |
| Cover Spread Washington -12.5 | Yes: 50¢ | No: 52¢ |
| Total 155.5 Points | Yes: 47¢ | No: 55¢ |
Real-time market data via Kalshi Prediction Exchange
This Penn State defense is one of the worst power-conference units ever to play the sport. It is remarkable how poorly they contest most shots taken against them, which has led to a third-worst effective field goal percentage of 58.4 against. Teams have eclipsed this team total on them in five of their previous seven contests, including a recent 110-point thrashing that came from Michigan in Ann Arbor.
Combine the lengthy travel that the Big Ten now entails with teams like Washington out on the west coast, and this feels like a great spot to back the Huskies to find some scoring in their home gym against a struggling defense.
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