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NCAAB · 5 hours ago

College Basketball Best Bets: Expert Picks for Tonight, Feb. 12

David Connelly

Host · Writer

It’s a mid-major Thursday in the world of college basketball, with 57 games on deck and none of them coming from power conference programs. That means we’ve got two mid-major deep dive picks for you ahead of the slate of action. Check it out as we prepare you for an exciting night of college basketball with expert betting insights, matchup analysis, & top picks.

YTD Record: 4-2 | +2.02 units

SportsGrid Expert Pick: New Haven ML (+122)

Where to Watch Central Connecticut vs. New Haven

  • SportsGrid Matchup Page: CCSU vs. NHC
  • Arena: The Hazell Center
  • Location: New Haven, CT
  • Where to Watch: ESPN+
  • Date: Thursday, February 12th
  • Time: 7:00 p.m. ET

Central Connecticut vs. New Haven Betting Odds & Market Value

Betting Market CCSU New Haven
Moneyline -150 +122
Spread -2.5 (-110) +2.5 (-110)
Total (O/U 128.5) Over -106 Under -118

Central Connecticut vs. New Haven Win Probability & Prediction Market Trends

Market Metric (Kalshi) CCSU New Haven
Direct Win Probability 56% 44%

Real-time market data via Kalshi Prediction Exchange

We’ve got an ugly pooch on our hands in this one. New Haven has been one of the worst teams in the country in their debut season at the Division I level, but there is a bit of a silver lining in this matchup. The Chargers have sneakily been a dependable team at home this season with a 6-4 record inside the Hazell Center. They have been playing some decent basketball lately as well, giving Northeast favorites LIU a run with a narrow five-point loss on the road last Thursday.

At 5-6 in league play, it seems like New Haven may be finding its footing at the Division I level over the past month or so, and they will want to give an in-state opponent all they can handle as they continue to make a push for an NEC Tournament spot in the final month of the season. Back the Chargers to get the upset in their home gym here.

SportsGrid Expert Pick: North Texas ML (+120)

Where to Watch Memphis vs. North Texas

  • SportsGrid Matchup Page: MEM vs. UNT
  • Arena: The Super Pit
  • Location: Denton, TX
  • Where to Watch: ESPN
  • Date: Thursday, February 12th
  • Time: 9:00 p.m. ET

Memphis vs. North Texas Betting Odds & Market Value

Betting Market Memphis North Texas
Moneyline -144 +120
Spread -2.5 (-104) +2.5 (-118)
Total (O/U 137.5) Over -110 Under -110

Memphis vs. North Texas Win Probability & Prediction Market Trends

Market Metric (Kalshi) Memphis North Texas
Direct Win Probability 56% 44%
Cover Spread Memphis -1.5 Yes: 54¢ No: 48¢
Total 138.5 Points Yes: 47¢ No: 55¢

Real-time market data via Kalshi Prediction Exchange

It has been a rough season for Memphis, and it’s time to start wondering about Penny Hardaway’s job security at this point. The Tigers are putting up some of their worst performances on the road, with a rough 2-8 record away from home on the season. They now have to face a North Texas program that has constantly prided itself on toughness, defense, and defending the Super Pit.

The Mean Green will look to build on one of their best performances of the season from this past Saturday when they steamrolled UTSA in their own building in an 81-58 victory. Daniyal Robinson’s group will look to muddy this one up as much as possible, and we have often questioned the toughness of Hardaway’s Memphis teams when it comes to matchups like this one. Back North Texas to find a way to get it done at home on Thursday night.

Dave Connelly is SportsGrid’s lead college basketball analyst with over five years of experience covering hoops, including his industry-leading transfer portal rankings and NCAA bracket predictions (seen on Bracket Matrix). An authority in Mid-Major Basketball, Connelly’s expertise extends well beyond the Power 5.