College Basketball Best Bets: Expert Picks for Tonight, Feb. 13
David Connelly
Host · Writer
We’ve got an intriguing MAAC showdown as Iona takes on Canisius, followed by a marquee Big Ten battle between Michigan State and Wisconsin to round out the night! Check it out as we prepare you for a thrilling slate of college basketball with expert betting insights, matchup analysis, & top picks.
Year to Date Record: 5-3 | Units: +2.22
Dave Connelly is SportsGrid’s lead college basketball analyst with over five years of experience covering hoops, including his industry-leading transfer portal rankings and NCAA bracket predictions (seen on Bracket Matrix). An authority in Mid-Major Basketball, Connelly’s expertise extends well beyond the Power 5.
SportsGrid Expert Pick: Iona Team Total Over 71.5 (-104)
Where to Watch Iona vs. Canisius
- SportsGrid Matchup Page: IONA vs. CAN
- Arena: Koessler Athletic Center
- Location: Buffalo, NY
- Where to Watch: ESPN+
- Date: Friday, February 13th
- Time: 7:00 p.m. ET
Iona vs. Canisius Betting Odds & Market Value
| Betting Market | Iona | Canisius |
| Moneyline | -255 | +205 |
| Spread | -5.5 (-105) | +5.5 (-115) |
| Total (O/U 148.5) | Over -115 | Under -105 |
Iona vs. Canisius Win Probability & Prediction Market Trends
| Market Metric (Kalshi) | Iona | Canisius |
| Direct Win Probability | 68% | 32% |
| Cover Spread Iona -5.5 | Yes: 50¢ | No: 52¢ |
| Total 136.5 Points | Yes: 52¢ | No: 49¢ |
Real-time market data via Kalshi Prediction Exchange
After three consecutive losses to knock them below .500 in conference play, this is a crucial bounce-back spot for Iona as they embark on the MAAC’s Buffalo swing. They tip things off with Canisius on Friday night, a matchup that favors their scoring ability. Iona ranks 26th nationally in percentage of team points coming from beyond the arc, while Canisius’s defense allowed 45.7 percent of opponents’ field goals to come from deep, one of the highest rates in the nation.
It sets up for the visiting Gaels to get plenty of open looks, something they should capitalize on with the second-best three-point percentage among MAAC teams this season. Ignore the other side of the ball and focus solely on this mismatch by backing Iona on their team total in this one.
SportsGrid Expert Pick: Wisconsin Team Total Over 72.5 (-114)
Where to Watch Michigan State vs. Wisconsin
- SportsGrid Matchup Page: MSU vs. WIS
- Arena: Kohl Center
- Location: Madison, WI
- Where to Watch: FOX
- Date: Friday, February 13th
- Time: 8:00 p.m. ET
Michigan State vs. Wisconsin Betting Odds & Market Value
| Betting Market | Michigan State | Wisconsin |
| Moneyline | -142 | +118 |
| Spread | -1.5 (-122) | +1.5 (+100) |
| Total (O/U 146.5) | Over -115 | Under -105 |
Michigan State vs. Wisconsin Win Probability & Prediction Market Trends
| Market Metric (Kalshi) | Michigan State | Wisconsin |
| Direct Win Probability | 58% | 42% |
| Cover Spread Michigan State -1.5 | Yes: 56¢ | No: 46¢ |
| Total 148.5 Points | Yes: 49¢ | No: 53¢ |
Real-time market data via Kalshi Prediction Exchange
We are following a similar approach here as we did with Iona. The matchup here heavily favors Wisconsin’s three-point shooting as they shoot the triple at the 14th-highest rate in the country, while Michigan State allows it at the 23rd-highest rate overall. It’s the ultimate green light for the Badgers, who have had similar matchups against Purdue and Nebraska, where results haven’t gone as well. Despite shooting a combined 57 three-pointers in those two matchups, Wisconsin only made 11 of them, leading to a combined 19.3 percent from beyond the arc.
Expect some regression back to the mean here from a talented shooting team in a spot where they should get plenty of good looks in their home gym.
