College Basketball Best Bets: Expert Picks for Tonight, Feb. 20

We’ve got an intriguing MAAC showdown as Siena takes on Merrimack, followed by a marquee Big Ten rivalry clash between Indiana and Purdue to round out the night! Check it out as we prepare you for a thrilling slate of college basketball with expert betting insights, matchup analysis, & top picks.

Year to Date Record: 10-10 | Units: -0.35 (Minus-money plays are to win one unit, plus-money plays are one unit)

Dave Connelly is SportsGrid’s lead college basketball analyst with over five years of experience covering hoops, including his industry-leading transfer portal rankings and NCAA bracket predictions (seen on Bracket Matrix). An authority in Mid-Major Basketball, Connelly’s expertise extends well beyond the Power 5.

SportsGrid Expert Pick: Siena Team Total Under 64.5 (-116)

Where to Watch Siena vs. Merrimack

• SportsGrid Matchup Page: SIE vs. MRMK
• Arena: Lawler Arena
• Location: North Andover, MA
• Where to Watch: ESPNU
• Date: Friday, February 20th
• Time: 8:00 p.m. ET

Siena vs. Merrimack Betting Odds & Market Value

Siena vs. Merrimack Win Probability & Prediction Market Trends

Real-time market data via Kalshi Prediction Exchange

After a bit of a logjam atop the MAAC at the start of conference play, Merrimack has done incredibly well over the past month to separate itself at the top of the league. The Warriors currently sit 14-2 and alone in first place in the league standings, entering this competition on the back of wins against fellow contenders Marist and Quinnipiac. They now face another massive home matchup against Siena, which sits at 11-5 in conference play.

Merrimack has one thing in mind on defense against every opponent: Do not allow them to shoot threes. They rank fourth-least nationally in percentage of points allowed from three-pointers, displaying their clear defensive identity of constantly running opponents off the three-point line. As for Siena, they avoid triples at all costs, ranking 347th nationally in points scored from beyond the arc. It makes sense why the Saints made just four three-pointers when these two faced back in early January, where they mustered just 59 points. The Merrimack defense has been an absolute wagon recently, holding opponents to just 50.7 points per game in their past three contests. Expect another dominant performance in a favorable matchup at home in front of a sold-out gym on Friday night.

SportsGrid Expert Pick: Purdue -11.5 (-108)

Where to Watch Indiana vs. Purdue

• SportsGrid Matchup Page: IND vs. PUR
• Arena: Mackey Arena
• Location: West Lafayette, IN
• Where to Watch: FOX
• Date: Friday, February 20th
• Time: 8:00 p.m. ET

Indiana vs. Purdue Betting Odds & Market Value

Indiana vs. Purdue Win Probability & Prediction Market Trends

Real-time market data via Kalshi Prediction Exchange

We’re going with a bit of a narrative play here for Purdue, which we don’t often do. The Boilermakers have been one of the most reliable home teams in the sport over the past few years, which is what made Tuesday night’s double-digit loss inside Mackey Arena to Michigan so shocking for most college basketball fans. The game felt like it said more about Michigan than Purdue, and we believe that this squad will be fired up to rectify that performance in front of their fans in this spot.

Indiana has struggled mightily away from home this season, with its best road performance coming in a double-overtime victory over a struggling UCLA team. They are just 3-6 in road games this season. Lay the hefty spread with Purdue and expect them to make a statement after Tuesday’s defeat.