College Basketball Best Bets: Expert Picks for Tonight, Feb. 25

We’ve got a marquee Big East showdown as St. John’s takes on UConn, followed by a West Coast Conference clash between Santa Clara and Saint Mary’s to round out the night! Check it out as we prepare you for a thrilling slate of college basketball with expert betting insights, matchup analysis, & top picks.

Year to Date Record: 12-14 | Units: -2.71 (Minus-money plays are to win one unit, plus-money plays are one unit)

Dave Connelly is SportsGrid’s lead college basketball analyst with over five years of experience covering hoops, including his industry-leading transfer portal rankings and NCAA bracket predictions (seen on Bracket Matrix). An authority in Mid-Major Basketball, Connelly’s expertise extends well beyond the Power 5.

SportsGrid Expert Pick: Under 146.5 (-105)

Where to Watch St. John’s vs. UConn

SportsGrid Matchup Page: SJU vs. CONN
Arena: PeoplesBank Arena
Location: Hartford, CT
Where to Watch: Peacock
Date: Wednesday, February 25th
Time: 7:00 p.m. ET

St. John’s vs. UConn Betting Odds & Market Value

Betting Market	St. John’s	UConn
Moneyline	+215	-265
Spread	+5.5 (-104)	-5.5 (-118)
Total (O/U 146.5)	Over -115	Under -105

St. John’s vs. UConn Win Probability & Prediction Market Trends

Market Metric (Kalshi)	St. John’s	UConn
Direct Win Probability	33%	67%
Cover Spread UConn -5.5	Yes: 52¢	No: 50¢
Total 147.5 Points	Yes: 50¢	No: 52¢

Real-time market data via Kalshi Prediction Exchange

The Big East regular-season crown will be on the line in Hartford tonight as St. John’s visits UConn in the matchup of the night in college basketball. The combination of narrative and tempo could make this a scrappy, low-scoring affair. Both teams will be emptying the clip on both sides of the ball in this one, which can often make these marquee matchups a bit scrappier than usual as teams fight for every possession rather than going through the motions. You also often see the home side dictate the pace in conference play, and UConn is one of the slower teams in the country. This game barely cleared this total in just 69 possessions when they met in Madison Square Garden, and it’ll require some legitimate scoring efficiency to clear it again at a similar pace. Add in that both squads are top-15 teams per KenPom’s defensive efficiency metric, and we’ll back this game to stay under the total.

SportsGrid Expert Pick: Saint Mary’s -5.5 (-110)

Where to Watch Santa Clara vs. Saint Mary’s

SportsGrid Matchup Page: SCU vs. SMC
Arena: University Credit Union Pavilion
Location: Moraga, CA
Where to Watch: CBS Sports Network
Date: Wednesday, February 25th
Time: 11:00 p.m. ET

Santa Clara vs. Saint Mary’s Betting Odds & Market Value

Betting Market	Santa Clara	Saint Mary’s
Moneyline	+210	-260
Spread	+5.5 (-110)	-5.5 (-110)
Total (O/U 151.5)	Over -115	Under -105

Santa Clara vs. Saint Mary’s Win Probability & Prediction Market Trends

Market Metric (Kalshi)	Santa Clara	Saint Mary’s
Direct Win Probability	33%	4567
Cover Spread Saint Mary’s -5.5	Yes: 49¢	No: 52¢
Total 151.5 Points	Yes: 51¢	No: 52¢

Real-time market data via Kalshi Prediction Exchange

Free throws will decide this monumental WCC clash on Wednesday. Santa Clara is one of the worst teams in the country at getting to the charity stripe, ranking sixth-to-last nationally in the percentage of points coming from the line. On the other side, Saint Mary’s is incredibly disciplined on defense when it comes to fouling. The Gaels are top 50 nationally in free throws allowed, a discrepancy that will make it difficult for the Broncos to get any easy points. On the road inside one of the toughest environments in the conference, the whistle may slightly favor Saint Mary’s as well. They have also been a powerhouse in their own building this year, sitting at 15-0 at home. Lay the points with the Gaels and expect them to get their revenge on Wednesday night.

Stay ahead of the game and elevate your sports betting experience with SportsGrid.