Boston Celtics Eastern Conference Championship: Why 22 Cents Is the Buy of the Season
Tyler Mason
Host · Writer
The Boston Celtics are sitting at 22 cents on Kalshi’s Eastern Conference Championship market, a 22% implied probability. That number is wrong. Not slightly wrong. Significantly wrong. The market has repriced Boston based on a temporary injury to Jayson Tatum, and in doing so, it’s completely ignored what this team actually is: the most complete roster in the Eastern Conference, currently battle-testing itself without its best player, and about to get him back.
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Tatum Is Coming Back — And He’s Coming Back Into Form
Jayson Tatum is out right now with an Achilles injury and is expected back around March 4. That’s the reason this market has been hammered down from where it should be. But here’s the thing: Tatum returning in early March means Boston enters the playoffs with its full complement of healthy players and weeks of game reps together. That’s an advantage, not a liability. Teams that coast into the playoffs healthy and comfortable often underperform in the first round. The Celtics will be sharp, motivated, and locked in.
And when Tatum returns, he’s walking back into a lineup that hasn’t missed a beat. Jaylen Brown has been spectacular, averaging 29.2 points per game while shouldering the offensive load. Payton Pritchard has emerged as one of the best bench scorers in the East. The system hasn’t cracked, it’s evolved.
Boston Is Already Playing Like a Championship Team Without Him
This isn’t a team in survival mode. The Celtics are 8-2 in their last ten games without Tatum in the lineup. They’re second in defensive rating and third in net rating league-wide. They dismantled the Lakers 111-89 and handled Golden State on the road 121-110. They went into New York and won by 22.
Boston’s net rating of 7.2 is nearly identical to Detroit’s 7.9, despite a five-game gap in the standings. The Celtics aren’t a pretender. The record just hasn’t fully caught up to the quality of play yet.
Their Competition Has Real Flaws
Detroit is at 42-14 and looks like the class of the East on paper. But their 75% win percentage is historically unsustainable, and their net rating barely separates them from Boston. The Celtics have gone 2-1 against Detroit in the season series. In a playoff series, that familiarity matters enormously.
Cleveland added James Harden at the deadline, which looks good on paper but has disrupted their offensive rhythm and chemistry. New York is 37-21 but inconsistent; Boston just handed them an embarrassing home loss. The East has a clear leader in Detroit, but no team in that conference scares you more than Boston in a seven-game series.
The Deadline Addition Rounds Out the Roster
Boston added Nikola Vučević at the trade deadline, addressing the one real hole they had: interior size and rebounding. In his first three games as a Celtic, he’s averaging 13 points, 9.3 rebounds, and shooting 47% from the field. That’s exactly the profile you want coming off your bench in a playoff series where every possession matters.
The supporting cast, Brown, Pritchard, Vučević, is deeper than anything Cleveland, Detroit, or New York can put on the floor past their top two.
Why 22 Cents Is Highway Robbery
The market has priced Boston like an injury-rattled middle seed. The underlying numbers say they’re a legitimate favorite. When Tatum returns in early March, this team will have Brown in full rhythm, Vučević integrated, and a full month of adversity that sharpens you for the playoffs in a way that regular-season comfort never does.
Detroit’s record will regress. Cleveland’s chemistry questions won’t go away. New York can’t consistently close. Boston gets healthy right on time.
The SportsGrid Betting Edge
Back the Celtics at 22 cents. This is a team that just beat the Lakers by 22 points, went into Golden State and won, and is holding a top-three net rating in the entire league, without their best player. Tatum’s return is the catalyst the market is ignoring. The Celtics are built to win in May and June, and 22 cents is the most mispriced number on the board right now.
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Our NBA prediction report is produced by the SportsGrid NBA editorial team, which is a collaborative unit of basketball experts, data scientists, and market specialists dedicated to covering the NBA. By combining proprietary data with real-time analysis, the team breaks down the movers and shakers on Kalshi.
Data from Blitz. Stats as of February 24. This article has been published by Senior Editor Tyler Mason.
