Newcastle United vs. FK Qarabag Prediction, Odds & Market Analysis | UCL 2026

Newcastle United returns to Tyneside with a nearly insurmountable advantage after a dominant 6-1 victory in Azerbaijan during the first leg. While the aggregate score suggests this tie is settled, the “sharp money" is focused on whether the Magpies will maintain their ruthless scoring form at St James’ Park or if Eddie Howe will rotate his squad significantly. Regardless of the lineup, the atmosphere in the North East remains electric as Newcastle looks to officially punch its ticket to the next round with another clinical performance.

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Where to Watch Newcastle United vs. FK Qarabag

• Stadium: St James’ Park

• Location: Newcastle-upon-Tyne, England

• Where to Watch: Paramount+

• Date: Tuesday, February 24th

• Time: 3:00 p.m. ET

Newcastle United vs. FK Qarabag Game Odds

Kalshi Prediction Market Odds

Match Breakdown: St James’ Park Dominance vs. Qarabag’s Pride

• The Clinical Star: Anthony Gordon has been the standout performer for the Magpies, leading the team with 10 goals and two assists in nine matches this campaign. His pace and finishing were on full display in the first leg, and he remains a constant threat to a Qarabag defense that has struggled throughout the competition.

• Potent Offense: Newcastle has been one of the most prolific teams in European play, scoring 23 goals while conceding only eight. They face an FK Qarabag side that has conceded 27 goals, suggesting that the vulnerabilities exposed in the first leg are unlikely to be resolved overnight.

• Secondary Options: Harvey Barnes provides significant support with five goals and two assists, while Malick Thiaw and Dan Burn anchor the defense. The collective depth of the Newcastle squad makes them heavy favorites even if rotation occurs.

• Aggregate Gap: The first-leg result of 6-1 on February 18 leaves FK Qarabag with a mountain to climb. To force extra time, the visitors would need to win by five goals at one of the most difficult venues in English football.

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The Prediction Market: Betting the Fallout

• The “Smart Money" Move: Market participants are banking on another high-scoring affair on Tyneside, with the Kalshi market showing a 57% probability for Over 3.5 goals scored.

• Home Win Certainty: The prediction market reflects extreme confidence in the hosts, giving Newcastle United an 87% chance of winning the match outright.

• Spread Analysis: Traders are split on the margin of victory, with a 48% probability that Newcastle wins by over 2.5 goals. Given the 6-1 scoreline in the first leg, this suggests the market expects Newcastle might take their foot off the gas slightly.

• Qarabag’s Longshot Odds: The probability for a Qarabag victory sits at just 6%, emphasizing the disparity in quality and the difficulty of the task at St James’ Park.

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