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SOCCER · 9 hours ago

Bayer Leverkusen vs. Olympiacos Prediction, Odds & Market Analysis | UCL 2026

Joe Cervenka

Host · Writer

Bayer Leverkusen returns home with a comfortable cushion after a professional 2-0 victory in the first leg, but do not expect Kasper Hjulmand to let his squad take their foot off the gas. While Leverkusen has one foot in the next round, Olympiacos proved just last month they can shut out the German giants in a 2-0 win of their own, making this return leg a fascinating tactical battle. The “sharp money" is watching to see if the Greeks can find an early crack in the Leverkusen armor or if the hosts will simply provide a clinical performance to put this tie to bed.

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Where to Watch Bayer Leverkusen vs. Olympiacos

  • Arena: BayArena
  • Location: Leverkusen, Germany

  • Where to Watch: Paramount+

  • Date: Tuesday, February 24th

  • Time: 3:00 p.m. ET

Bayer Leverkusen vs. Olympiacos Game Odds

Market Selection Odds
Moneyline Bayer Leverkusen (B04) -125
Moneyline Olympiacos (OLY) +320
Moneyline Draw +300
Total Goals Over 2.5 (o2.5) -155
Total Goals Under 2.5 (u2.5) +125
Spread B04 -0.5 -140
Spread OLY +0.5 EVEN

Kalshi Prediction Market Odds

Selection Probability
Bayer Leverkusen to Win 55%
Tie 24%
Olympiacos to Win 23%
Leverkusen wins by over 1.5 goals 31%
Over 2.5 goals scored 59%
Market Volume $120,099

Match Breakdown: Clinical Execution vs. Needed Miracles

  • The Defensive Anchor: Alejandro Grimaldo has been a dual-threat force for Leverkusen, leading the team with four goals and two assists in nine matches. His ability to track back prevents the defensive lapses that often plague aggressive high-line teams.

  • Goal-Scoring Depth: Leverkusen’s attack is balanced, with Patrik Schick providing four goals of his own. They face an Olympiacos defense that has conceded 16 goals in the competition, suggesting vulnerabilities to exploit.

  • The Olympiacos Wildcard: Ayoub El Kaabi and Gelson Martins remain the primary threats for the visitors, having combined for five goals in European play. If Olympiacos is going to pull off a miracle, these two need to be perfect in the final third.

  • Historical Context: These sides have a high-scoring history; while Leverkusen won the first leg 2-0, Olympiacos handed them a 6-2 defeat back in two thousand two. Recent form favors Leverkusen, but the Greeks have proven they can find the back of the net against this opposition.

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The Prediction Market: Betting the Fallout

  • The “Smart Money" Move: Market participants are banking on a high-scoring affair at the BayArena, with the Kalshi market showing a 59% probability for Over 2.5 goals scored.

  • Leverkusen Confidence: Despite the two-goal cushion, the prediction market remains bullish on a home victory, giving Bayer Leverkusen a 55% chance to win the match outright.

  • Spread Volatility: While Leverkusen are heavy favorites to advance, the market is more measured on a blowout, with only a 31% probability that the hosts win by over 1.5 goals.

  • Olympiacos Upset Potential: The probability of an Olympiacos victory is 23%, suggesting that, while the Greeks are underdogs, traders are not completely ruling out a performance similar to their win last month.

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