March Madness 2026 Best Bets: First Four Picks for Tonight, Mar. 18

We’ve got a pair of First Four matchups as Prairie View A&M takes on Lehigh, followed by Miami Ohio battling SMU to round out the night! Check it out as we prepare you for an exciting start to March Madness with expert betting insights, matchup analysis, & top picks.

First Four Best Bets Today: Expert Picks for March 18

Year to Date Record: 30-23 | Units: +5.49 units (Minus-money plays are to win one unit, plus-money plays are one unit)

Dave Connelly is SportsGrid’s lead college basketball analyst with over five years of experience covering hoops, including his industry-leading transfer portal rankings and NCAA bracket predictions (seen on Bracket Matrix). An authority in Mid-Major Basketball, Connelly’s expertise extends well beyond the Power 5.

SportsGrid Expert Pick: Prairie View A&M (+136)

Where to Watch Prairie View A&M vs. Lehigh

• SportsGrid Matchup Page: PV vs. LEH
• Location: Dayton, OH
• Where to Watch: truTV
• Date: March 18, 2026
• Time: 6:40 p.m. ET

Prairie View A&M vs. Lehigh Betting Odds & Market Value

Prairie View A&M vs. Lehigh Win Probability & Prediction Market Trends

Real-time market data via Kalshi Prediction Exchange

As someone who backed Prairie View A&M to win their conference tournament, I have been all-in on this squad for the past few weeks. Despite entering the SWAC Tournament as an #8 seed, some recent predictive metrics showed that they were playing some of the best basketball in the conference over the past month. It clearly came to fruition after earning the league’s automatic bid in Atlanta, and we don’t see them stopping here.

Dontae Horne and Cory Wells are an elite scoring duo, and are now joined by the return of Tai’Reon Joseph to round out a big three for Prairie View. While his playing time has been limited since his return at the start of the SWAC Tournament, he was able to contribute an important ten points in nine minutes off the bench in their championship game victory over Southern.

Another key personnel change from head coach Byron Smith that has sprung this recent run is the decision to start center Corey Dunning just over a month ago. It has completely changed their rotation and playstyle, leading to a 9-2 record since the move.

There is a lot to like about this Prairie View team, and we believe the number is simply too juicy for the talent and swagger that they are currently playing with.

For more College Basketball picks, check out SportsGrid’s predictive model. Our SportsGrid predictive model doesn’t stop at the spread. See which player props have a 5-star rating tonight. Unlock your betting edge!

SportsGrid Edge: Miami (OH) +7.5 (-120)

Where to Watch Miami (OH) vs. SMU

• SportsGrid Matchup Page: M-OH vs. SMU
• Venue: University of Dayton Arena
• Location: Dayton, OH
• Where to Watch: truTV
• Date: March 18, 2026
• Time: 9:15 p.m. ET

Miami (OH) vs. SMU Betting Odds & Market Value

There is a lot to like about the number of points you can get on Miami (Ohio) in this matchup. KenPom projects a seven-point margin of victory for SMU in this one, but there are two key variables at play on Wednesday night.

The first comes with the likely absence or limitation of big man B.J. Edwards for the Mustangs. His potential absence certainly affects the outcome of this game, and even if he plays, he will likely not be at 100 percent. That gives the undersized RedHawks here a bit of an advantage, who lack athleticism in the backcourt, something Edwards provides for SMU.

Another factor favoring Miami (Ohio) is the proximity of the First Four to the school’s campus. Dayton sits just 43 miles away from the RedHawks campus in Oxford, meaning their home faithful will be out in full effect for this one. It may provide some home-court advantage for them, something that is not factored into the KenPom projected margin since the game is technically listed as a neutral-site game.

Take the points and back Miami Ohio to keep things close based on the Edwards injury and a favorable crowd.

College Basketball Best Bets: March 18

• Prairie View A&M ML (+136)
• Miami (OH) +7.5 (-120)

The NCAA Tournament is finally underway, and there are plenty of betting opportunities throughout March. Best of luck!