NCAAB · 2 hours ago

Ranking the 20 Most Likely Final Four Teams Based on ESPN’s Projections

John Canady

Host · Writer

20) St. John's Red Storm
St. John's NCAA Tournament Resume

Strength of Record: 16

Record: 28-6 | Quality Wins: 5-5

Strength of Schedule: 14
ESPN Projections

Final Four: 4.4%

Elite 8: 9.5%

Sweet 16: 38.7%

National Title Winner: 0.5%

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1) Duke Blue Devils
Duke's NCAA Tournament Resume

Strength of Record: 3

Record: 32-2 | Quality Wins: 15-2

Strength of Schedule: 13
ESPN Projections

Final Four: 57.1%

Elite 8: 74.8%

Sweet 16: 91.7%

National Title Winner: 24.4%

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2) Michigan Wolverines
Michigan’s NCAA Tournament Resume

Strength of Record: 2

Record: 31-3 | Quality Wins: 17-3

Strength of Schedule: 2
ESPN Projections

Final Four: 46.1%

Elite 8: 68.5%

Sweet 16: 89.8%

National Title Winner: 15.3%
3) Arizona Wildcats
Arizona's NCAA Tournament Resume

Strength of Record: 1

Record: 32-2 | Quality Wins: 16-2

Strength of Schedule: 24
ESPN Projections

Final Four: 44.8%

Elite 8: 69.3%

Sweet 16: 89.0%

National Title Winner: 14.0%
4) Houston Cougars
Houston's NCAA Tournament Resume

Strength of Record: 6

Record: 28-6 | Quality Wins: 12-6

Strength of Schedule: 27
ESPN Projections

Final Four: 33.3%

Elite 8: 54.1%

Sweet 16: 86.4%

National Title Winner: 9.4%
5) Florida Gators
Florida's NCAA Tournament Resume

Strength of Record: 5

Record: 26-7 | Quality Wins: 13-7

Strength of Schedule: 5
ESPN Projections

Final Four: 31.4%

Elite 8: 60.2%

Sweet 16: 85.7%

National Title Winner: 7.7%
6) Iowa State Cyclones
Iowa State's NCAA Tournament Resume

Strength of Record: 14

Record: 27-7 | Quality Wins: 9-7

Strength of Schedule: 49
ESPN Projections

Final Four: 26.5%

Elite 8: 54.5%

Sweet 16: 81.7%

National Title Winner: 6.0%
7) Purdue Boilermakers
Purdue's NCAA Tournament Resume

Strength of Record: 7

Record: 27-8 | Quality Wins: 12-8

Strength of Schedule: 4
ESPN Projections

Final Four: 22.0%

Elite 8: 46.7%

Sweet 16: 84.9%

National Title Winner: 4.3%
8) Illinois Fighting Illini
Illinois' NCAA Tournament Resume

Strength of Record: 17

Record: 24-8 | Quality Wins: 9-8

Strength of Schedule: 17
ESPN Projections

Final Four: 20.7%

Elite 8: 38.5%

Sweet 16: 83.6%

National Title Winner: 4.2%
9) Gonzaga Bulldogs
Gonzaga's NCAA Tournament Resume

Strength of Record: 11

Record: 30-3 | Quality Wins: 8-2

Strength of Schedule: 89
ESPN Projections

Final Four: 19.3%

Elite 8: 41.2%

Sweet 16: 76.2%

National Title Winner: 3.7%
10) UConn Huskies
UConn's NCAA Tournament Resume

Strength of Record: 4

Record: 29-5 | Quality Wins: 8-3

Strength of Schedule: 22
ESPN Projections

Final Four: 14.8%

Elite 8: 42.6%

Sweet 16: 78.2%

National Title Winner: 3.7%
11) Michigan State Spartans
Michigan State’s NCAA Tournament Resume

Strength of Record: 13

Record: 25-7 | Quality Wins: 11-6

Strength of Schedule: 15
ESPN Projections

Final Four: 9.8%

Elite 8: 31.2%

Sweet 16: 61.9%

National Title Winner: 1.3%
12) Alabama Crimson Tide
Alabama's NCAA Tournament Resume

Strength of Record: 15

Record: 23-9 | Quality Wins: 11-8

Strength of Schedule: 1
ESPN Projections

Final Four: 8.1%

Elite 8: 19.2%

Sweet 16: 64.4%

National Title Winner: 0.9%
13) Arkansas Razorbacks
Arkansas' NCAA Tournament Resume

Strength of Record: 8

Record: 26-8 | Quality Wins: 12-8

Strength of Schedule: 8
ESPN Projections

Final Four: 7.0%

Elite 8: 18.7%

Sweet 16: 65.9%

National Title Winner: 0.6%
14) Tennessee Volunteers
Tennessee's NCAA Tournament Resume

Strength of Record: 22

Record: 22-11 | Quality Wins: 10-10

Strength of Schedule: 11
ESPN Projections

Final Four: 6.5%

Elite 8: 16.8%

Sweet 16: 38.6%

National Title Winner: 0.9%
15) Nebraska Cornhuskers
Nebraska's NCAA Tournament Resume

Strength of Record: 10

Record: 26-6 | Quality Wins: 8-6

Strength of Schedule: 51
ESPN Projections

Final Four: 6.2%

Elite 8: 19.7%

Sweet 16: 58.9%

National Title Winner: 0.6%
16) Virginia Cavaliers
Virginia's NCAA Tournament Resume

Strength of Record: 9

Record: 29-5 | Quality Wins: 9-3

Strength of Schedule: 58
ESPN Projections

Final Four: 6.1%

Elite 8: 19.6%

Sweet 16: 55.5%

National Title Winner: 0.5%
17) Louisville Cardinals
Louisville's NCAA Tournament Resume

Strength of Record: 26

Record: 23-10 | Quality Wins: 8-9

Strength of Schedule: 41
ESPN Projections

Final Four: 6.0%

Elite 8: 18.1%

Sweet 16: 34.4%

National Title Winner: 0.5%
18) Kansas Jayhawks
Kansas' NCAA Tournament Resume

Strength of Record: 18

Record: 23-10 | Quality Wins: 11-8

Strength of Schedule: 3
ESPN Projections

Final Four: 5.1%

Elite 8: 12.4%

Sweet 16: 58.3%

National Title Winner: 0.5%
19) Vanderbilt Commodores
Vanderbilt's NCAA Tournament Resume

Strength of Record: 12

Record: 26-8 | Quality Wins: 11-8

Strength of Schedule: 7
ESPN Projections

Final Four: 5.0%

Elite 8: 13.9%

Sweet 16: 36.9%

National Title Winner: 0.6%
20) St. John's Red Storm
St. John's NCAA Tournament Resume

Strength of Record: 16

Record: 28-6 | Quality Wins: 5-5

Strength of Schedule: 14
ESPN Projections

Final Four: 4.4%

Elite 8: 9.5%

Sweet 16: 38.7%

National Title Winner: 0.5%

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1) Duke Blue Devils
Duke's NCAA Tournament Resume

Strength of Record: 3

Record: 32-2 | Quality Wins: 15-2

Strength of Schedule: 13
ESPN Projections

Final Four: 57.1%

Elite 8: 74.8%

Sweet 16: 91.7%

National Title Winner: 24.4%

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St. John's NCAA Tournament Resume

ESPN Projections

Duke's NCAA Tournament Resume

ESPN Projections

Michigan’s NCAA Tournament Resume

ESPN Projections

Arizona's NCAA Tournament Resume

ESPN Projections

Houston's NCAA Tournament Resume

ESPN Projections

Florida's NCAA Tournament Resume

ESPN Projections

Iowa State's NCAA Tournament Resume

ESPN Projections

Purdue's NCAA Tournament Resume

ESPN Projections

Illinois' NCAA Tournament Resume

ESPN Projections

Gonzaga's NCAA Tournament Resume

ESPN Projections

UConn's NCAA Tournament Resume

ESPN Projections

Michigan State’s NCAA Tournament Resume

ESPN Projections

Alabama's NCAA Tournament Resume

ESPN Projections

Arkansas' NCAA Tournament Resume

ESPN Projections

Tennessee's NCAA Tournament Resume

ESPN Projections

Nebraska's NCAA Tournament Resume

ESPN Projections

Virginia's NCAA Tournament Resume

ESPN Projections

Louisville's NCAA Tournament Resume

ESPN Projections

Kansas' NCAA Tournament Resume

ESPN Projections

Vanderbilt's NCAA Tournament Resume

ESPN Projections

St. John's NCAA Tournament Resume

ESPN Projections

Duke's NCAA Tournament Resume

ESPN Projections

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