NCAAB · 3 hours ago

Jay Bilas Predicts 11 First & Second Round NCAA Tournament Upsets

Joe Cervenka

Host · Writer

Which Jay Bilas Upset Will You Put in Your 2026 Bracket?
Cast Your Vote: Cinderella or Chalk?
- From St. John's aggressive pressure to Texas playing as a "sneaky" #11 seed, the 2026 NCAA Tournament is primed for chaos.
- Will the Kansas Jayhawks bounce back from their Big 12 struggles, or is Rick Pitino destined for another Sweet 16 run?
- Cast your vote: Which of these 11 upsets do you feel is a "lock" for the first weekend?
- Drop a comment with your Final Four predictions and let us know if you're riding with Jay Bilas this year!
Jay Bilas Predicts 11 First & Second Round NCAA Tournament Upsets
Identifying Early Value in the 2026 March Madness Bracket
- ESPN analyst Jay Bilas has officially released his full 2026 tournament bracket, pinpointing several high-major mismatches.
- This year’s field features a volatile mix of blue-blood programs like Kansas and UConn facing aggressive "underseeded" challengers.
- Bilas is calling for 11 specific upsets across the first and second rounds to help fans navigate their Tournament Challenge entries.
- Each prediction highlights a specific tactical advantage or injury status that could lead to an early exit for higher-seeded teams.
First Round East Region: No. 7 TCU Over No. 8 Ohio State
“This is an underrated team, one that beat Florida early in the season. The 8-9 matchup is a coin flip, but I am taking TCU.” — Jay Bilas

A Battle of Big 12 vs. Big Ten Depth
- Ohio State features Bruce Thornton, who currently stands as the program's all-time leading scorer and primary offensive engine.
- TCU counters with David Punch, who recently recorded a season-high 26 points during the Big 12 quarterfinals against Oklahoma State.
March Madness Odds
- TCU Horned Frogs: +1.5 (-110) | ML +105
- Ohio State Buckeyes: -1.5 (-110) | ML -125
First Round East Region: No. 11 South Florida Over No. 6 Louisville
“This is a great upset pick: Mikel Brown Jr. has been out because of a sore back, and South Florida is tough. It's worth rolling the dice on this one.” — Jay Bilas

Injuries Impact the Cardinals' Guard Rotation
- Louisville enters the tournament with health concerns surrounding star player Mikel Brown Jr., who has been sidelined with a back injury.
- South Florida utilizes a high-volume three-point shooting strategy that creates defensive stress on the perimeter for the Cardinals.
March Madness Odds
- South Florida Bulls: +4.5 (-110) | ML +165
- Louisville Cardinals: -4.5 (-110) | ML -200
First Round East Region: No. 10 UCF Over No. 7 UCLA
“With UCLA banged up, the Knights are worth a flier.” — Jay Bilas

The Knights Bring Big 12 Physicality to the East
- UCF relies on a versatile rotation including Themus Fulks, Jordan Burks, and defensive anchor Jamichael Stillwell.
- UCLA features elite point guard play from Donovan Dent, but the Bruins are currently hampered by multiple injuries across their roster.
March Madness Odds
- UCF Knights: +5.5 (-110) | ML +185
- UCLA Bruins: -5.5 (-110) | ML -230
First Round South Region: No. 9 Iowa Over No. 8 Clemson
“Take Iowa. Neither beats Florida, anyway.” — Jay Bilas

Elite Shotmaking Defines the Hawkeyes’ Offense
- Iowa is led by Bennett Stirtz, a premier shotmaker averaging 20.2 points and 5.1 assists per game this season.
- Clemson brings a veteran, well-coached squad into the South Region, but they face a statistical disadvantage against the Hawkeyes' offensive efficiency.
March Madness Odds
- Iowa Hawkeyes: -2.0 (-110) | ML -130
- Clemson Tigers: +2.0 (-110) | ML +110
First Round West Region: No. 9 Utah State Over No. 8 Villanova
“There is no such thing as an upset in the 8-9 game, but Utah State winning would feel like one... take Utah State.” — Jay Bilas

Aggies Boast the Mountain West Player of the Year
- Utah State features Mason Falslev, the reigning Mountain West Player of the Year, alongside elite perimeter threat MJ Collins Jr.
- Villanova enters the West Region as a slight favorite, but the Wildcats have struggled with offensive consistency throughout the late-season stretch.
March Madness Odds
- Utah State Aggies: -1.5 (-110) | ML -120
- Villanova Wildcats: +1.5 (-110) | ML +100
First Round West Region: No. 11 Texas Over No. 6 BYU
“BYU isn't the same team it was earlier in the year, and I think its seed reflects what it was earlier in the year rather than late.” — Jay Bilas

Longhorns Leverage Size and Coaching Experience
- Texas utilizes the defensive coaching of Sean Miller and the scoring versatility of Dailyn Swain to disrupt high-tempo offenses.
- BYU features the nation's leading scorer in AJ Dybantsa, but the Cougars have faced scoring droughts beyond their primary stars.
March Madness Odds
- Texas Longhorns: +2.5 (-110) | ML +115
- BYU Cougars: -2.5 (-110) | ML -140
First Round West Region: No. 10 Missouri Over No. 7 Miami
“I like Missouri in this one. This is a coin flip, so take the upset pick.” — Jay Bilas

Mitchell Leads the Tigers Into the West
- Missouri is paced by Mark Mitchell, who has averaged 18.3 points per game to lead the Tigers' offense this season.
- Miami recorded an 18-win improvement year-over-year, but the Hurricanes face a difficult matchup against Missouri's aggressive pressure.
March Madness Odds
- Missouri Tigers: +2.5 (-110) | ML +125
- Miami Hurricanes: -2.5 (-110) | ML -150
Second Round East Region: No. 5 St. John’s Over No. 4 Kansas
“Though Kansas can beat anyone, the Jayhawks can also lose to just about anyone. And St. John's isn't just anyone.” — Jay Bilas

Pitino Targets a Sweet 16 Return
- St. John's is widely considered an "underseeded" team in the East Region due to their late-season surge under head coach Rick Pitino.
- Kansas relies on Flory Bidunga for rim protection, but the Jayhawks recorded a season-low 47 points in their recent Big 12 tournament loss.
March Madness Odds
- St. John’s to Make Sweet 16: +100
- Kansas to Make Sweet 16: +105
Second Round South Region: No. 5 Vanderbilt Over No. 4 Nebraska
“This is a great matchup. Nebraska can beat almost anyone, but Vanderbilt's guards will be the difference.” — Jay Bilas

Commodore Backcourt Brings Elite Defensive Pressure
- Vanderbilt features the guard duo of Tyler Tanner and Duke Miles, with Miles recently securing a pivotal steal in the SEC final.
- Nebraska is looking to secure its first NCAA tournament win in program history, though they face a challenge against the Commodores' speed.
March Madness Odds
- Vanderbilt to Make Sweet 16: -115
- Nebraska to Make Sweet 16: +110
Second Round West Region: No. 11 Texas Over No. 3 Gonzaga
“Gonzaga is the better team, but consider taking a flier here. Texas is a sneaky 11-seed.” — Jay Bilas

Zags Face Depth Issues in the Frontcourt
- Gonzaga is currently playing without key contributor Braden Huff, who averaged 17.8 points and 5.6 rebounds per game.
- Texas provides a "sneaky" matchup advantage due to their interior size and the scoring ability of Dailyn Swain.
March Madness Odds
- Texas to Make Sweet 16: +550
- Gonzaga to Make Sweet 16: -210
Second Round Midwest Region: No. 6 Tennessee Over No. 3 Virginia
“Virginia can protect the paint and the 3-point line, but Tennessee is physical and pounds the offensive glass.” — Jay Bilas

Vols Lean on Interior Physicality
- Tennessee welcomes back Nate Ament, who averages 17.5 points and 6.6 rebounds, to a rotation already bolstered by Ja'Kobi Gillespie.
- Virginia remains a top-50 defensive team nationally, but the Cavaliers face a difficult physical test against the Volunteers' rebounding.
March Madness Odds
- Tennessee to Make Sweet 16: +145
- Virginia to Make Sweet 16: -130
Which Jay Bilas Upset Will You Put in Your 2026 Bracket?
Cast Your Vote: Cinderella or Chalk?
- From St. John's aggressive pressure to Texas playing as a "sneaky" #11 seed, the 2026 NCAA Tournament is primed for chaos.
- Will the Kansas Jayhawks bounce back from their Big 12 struggles, or is Rick Pitino destined for another Sweet 16 run?
- Cast your vote: Which of these 11 upsets do you feel is a "lock" for the first weekend?
- Drop a comment with your Final Four predictions and let us know if you're riding with Jay Bilas this year!
Jay Bilas Predicts 11 First & Second Round NCAA Tournament Upsets
Identifying Early Value in the 2026 March Madness Bracket
- ESPN analyst Jay Bilas has officially released his full 2026 tournament bracket, pinpointing several high-major mismatches.
- This year’s field features a volatile mix of blue-blood programs like Kansas and UConn facing aggressive "underseeded" challengers.
- Bilas is calling for 11 specific upsets across the first and second rounds to help fans navigate their Tournament Challenge entries.
- Each prediction highlights a specific tactical advantage or injury status that could lead to an early exit for higher-seeded teams.

Jay Bilas Predicts 11 First & Second Round NCAA Tournament Upsets

Cast Your Vote: Cinderella or Chalk?

Identifying Early Value in the 2026 March Madness Bracket

A Battle of Big 12 vs. Big Ten Depth

March Madness Odds

Injuries Impact the Cardinals' Guard Rotation

March Madness Odds

The Knights Bring Big 12 Physicality to the East

March Madness Odds

Elite Shotmaking Defines the Hawkeyes’ Offense

March Madness Odds

Aggies Boast the Mountain West Player of the Year

March Madness Odds

Longhorns Leverage Size and Coaching Experience

March Madness Odds

Mitchell Leads the Tigers Into the West

March Madness Odds

Pitino Targets a Sweet 16 Return

March Madness Odds

Commodore Backcourt Brings Elite Defensive Pressure

March Madness Odds

Zags Face Depth Issues in the Frontcourt

March Madness Odds

Vols Lean on Interior Physicality

March Madness Odds

Cast Your Vote: Cinderella or Chalk?

Identifying Early Value in the 2026 March Madness Bracket

BETTING NEWS

FUTURES

EDITOR'S PICKS

For the Best of SportsGrid, Grab the App

BETTING NEWS

FUTURES