Real Madrid vs. Benfica: Updated Odds & Prediction Market Trends

Real Madrid returns to the Santiago Bernabéu tonight, February 25, 2026, holding a narrow 1-0 aggregate lead after a hard-fought professional victory against Benfica in Lisbon. While the 15-time European champions are traditionally dominant on their own turf, they must navigate this decider without their primary attacking engine.

The “sharp money" is monitoring a major shift in the lineup, as Kylian Mbappé has been officially ruled OUT due to a persistent left knee injury that forced him to withdraw from training on Tuesday. With the French superstar sidelined, the burden of finding a clinical edge falls to Vinícius Júnior and a depleted forward line tasked with closing out the series against a Benfica side arriving under the guidance of Jose Mourinho, even though he won’t be on the touchline. The visitors will look to exploit these key absences to stage a historic upset, while Madrid aims to professionally secure their place in the Round of 16.

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Where to Watch Real Madrid vs. Benfica

• Arena: Santiago Bernabéu

• Location: Madrid, Spain

• Where to Watch: Paramount+

• Date: Wednesday, February 25th

• Time: 3:00 p.m. ET

Real Madrid vs. Benfica Game Odds

Real Madrid vs. Benfica Kalshi Prediction Market Odds

Match Breakdown: Depleted Firepower vs. Tactical Resilience

• The Global Superstar Sidelined: Kylian Mbappé will miss today’s clash due to a recurring left knee issue. It is a massive blow for Los Blancos, as Mbappé leads the team with 13 goals in eight matches during this European campaign.

• Playmaking Burden: With Rodrygo suspended and Mbappé out, the creative engine must lean on Vinícius Jr. and Arda Güler. Vinícius, who scored the lone goal in the first leg, enters in fine form with five goals in his last four appearances.

• Benfica’s Clinical Opportunity: Vangelis Pavlidis remains the primary threat for the visitors, recording two goals and two assists so far. Without the need to account for Mbappé’s speed, the Benfica backline may play more aggressively to overturn the 1-0 deficit.

• Aggregate Pressure: Real Madrid needs only a draw to advance, but a single Benfica goal would level the aggregate and potentially force extra time, as there are no away-goals advantages.

Spain is our pick to win the World Cup in 2026. Find out why here.

The Prediction Market: Betting the Fallout

• The “Smart Money" Move: Prediction markets currently price a Real Madrid victory at 59%, a slight dip following the confirmation that Mbappé, Bellingham, and Rodrygo are all unavailable.

• Measured Goal Expectations: Traders are leaning toward a more conservative scoreline, with a 41% probability for Over 3.5 goals. The market anticipates Madrid may prioritize defensive control to protect their slender lead.

• Spread Analysis: There is only a 33% probability that Madrid covers the -1.5 spread. This suggests a tight, professional outcome is more likely than a blowout victory.

• Upset Potential: The probability for a Benfica victory in the capital has ticked up to 21%, while the chance of a draw—which would see Madrid through—sits at 22%.

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