Men’s Olympic Quarterfinal Preview: USA vs Sweden Best Bets

There’s no turning back now. Team USA has entered the knockout round and has been granted a free pass to the quarterfinals. After Sweden dismantled Latvia on Tuesday, that sets up a heated clash with the Scandinavian superpower on Wednesday. 

This winner-take-all showdown is sure to be one of the more entertaining quarterfinal matchups. We’re breaking down the action with our favorite betting plays!

Grant White is a Senior NHL Analyst specializing in data-driven betting strategies. With a focus on advanced analytics, Grant blends years of hockey expertise with a rigorous model-based approach to identify high-value edges. 

Check out what bets we’re targeting on tonight’s slate!

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Best Bet: USA -1.5 -108

Where to Watch (#7) Sweden vs (#2) USA

• Arena: Milano Santagiulia IHO Arena
• Location: Milan
• Where to Watch: ESPN+
• Date: February 18, 2026
• Time: 3:10 p.m. ET

SWE vs USA Betting Odds & Team Comparison

SWE vs USA Win Probability & Prediction Market Trends

Source: Kalshi Prediction Exchange

It’s been a remarkable display of power thus far. Team USA has made short work of all of its opponents, a trend that should continue against a disappointing Sweden team. The Americans have deployed a relentless attack, a characteristic we’re betting continues in the quarterfinals.

Through three games, no one has had an answer for Team USA’s offensive attack. They’ve recorded no fewer than 37 shots in any one of their contests, outshooting their opponents by a combined 122-67 margin. More importantly, the Americans have made the most of their scoring opportunities. They put up at least five goals in each one of those contests, with 13 of their 16 goals coming at even-strength. Expect that onslaught to continue against a porous Swedish defense. 

While the Swedes entered the tournament with the third-shortest odds to claim gold, they haven’t lived up to that billing. They were handed a one-sided defeat at the hands of the Finns, narrowly escaping the Slovaks, and gave up two goals on 22 shots to last-place Italy. Even in the knockout round versus Latvia, the Swedes gave up 21 shots and looked in disarray in their own end at times.

The States have played a puck possession game, which will keep Sweden on the defensive throughout this quarterfinal matchup. Given the Americans’ penchant for scoring, we don’t expect Sweden to have much success in limiting Team USA’s top scorers. Naturally, that points us toward a puck line play on Team USA, to maximize return.

Note: All odds are subject to change after article publication. Get the most up-to-date odds here.

Best Bet: Tage Thompson Any Time Goal Scorer +260

We’ve seen Auston Matthews shed his former reputation and lead the Americans in scoring this tournament. As good as he’s been, we’re predicting a monumental effort from Tage Thompson versus Sweden. 

Thompson has been one of Team USA’s pre-eminent trigger men. So far, he’s recorded two goals on seven shots, recording three attempts on target in two of the three contests. He found the back of the net in the tournament opener versus Latvia, adding another tally in the round robin finale versus Germany. He’s continuously deployed in the attacking zone and should have plenty of opportunities against Sweden’s second and third-pairing defensemen. 

Team USA’s roster is too deep to stop everyone. While teams have focused on limiting Matthews or the Tkachuk line, Tage Thompson has quietly solidified his position as a top contributor from a tertiary role. We expect that deployment to continue against Sweden, with the former 47-goal scorer earning ample opportunity against Sweden’s last line defenders.

At +260, there is immense value in backing Thompson to keep his scoring streak going in the quarters. 

Men’s Olympic Quarterfinal Preview: USA vs Sweden Best Bets

• USA -1.5 -108
• Tage Thompson Any Time Goal Scorer +260

We’re heading into this quarterfinal matchup with two plays. First, we’re taking Team USA to cover the puck line against a defensively irresponsible Swedish team. Second, we like Tage Thompson to continue his Olympic magic and tickle the twine in Milan. 

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