Olympics · 9 hours ago

2026 Milan-Cortina Olympics: Predicting the Men’s Hockey Knockout Round

Grant White

Host · Writer

Gold Medal Game - (#1) Canada vs (#2) USA
This is the dream matchup everyone has been waiting for since the 4 Nations Face-Off. Team USA and Canada reignite their heated rivalry, matching last year's intensity. Despite the Americans' best efforts, it's not enough to match Canada's depth and superiority. This win is more convincing than last year's overtime victory, vaulting Canada back to the top of the hockey world.

Predicted Result: Canada wins gold. The USA wins silver.
#1 Seed - Canada
Gold Medal Odds: -135

First-Round Matchup: Bye

As expected, Canada rolled through the group stage with relative ease. In doing so, the Canadians' gold medal odds have surged even higher, staking themselves to a -135 price at the outset of the knockout round. Canada's precision scoring can't be matched. It will take a mighty defensive effort to knock the powerhouse off its stride.
#2 Seed - USA
Gold Medal Odds: +200

First-Round Matchup: Bye

Team USA is coasting into the knockout round on the strength of three straight preliminary round wins. While it wasn't always convincing, the Americans covered the puck line in all three contests and secured the second seed. Their truest test won't come until the semis, but the Americans can't afford to take their quarterfinal opponent for granted.
#3 Seed - Slovakia
Gold Medal Odds: +3500

First-Round Matchup: Bye

Undoubtedly, Slovakia was the biggest surprise of the preliminary round. A game-winning goal in the waning moments versus Sweden cast the Slovaks to the top of Group B and assured them a spot in the quarterfinals. This team has a methodical approach on both ends of the ice and is positioned to be the 2026 Cinderella.
#4 Seed - Finland
Gold Medal Odds: +1100

First-Round Matchup: Bye

The defending gold medal champions clung to the fourth seed and a first-round bye in the knockout round. Finland's tournament-opening loss to Slovakia cost them top spot in Group B, but the Finns responded positively with two convincing wins to close out group play. They need to carry that momentum into what's sure to be a defensive slugfest in the quarterfinals.
Knockout Round - (#5) Switzerland vs (#12) Italy
SUI vs ITA Betting Odds & Team Comparison

Market Switzerland (SUI) Italy (ITA)

Moneyline -1800 +920

Puck Line (Spread) -1.5 (-480) +1.5 (+350)

Total (Over/Under 6.5) Over: -150 Under: +124

Switzerland finished the group stage with the sixth-most points, but were bumped to the fifth-seed by virtue of their higher finish in Group A's standings. That consolation prize is a first-round matchup versus host Italy. Switzerland is clearly the superior team, but don't expect the Italians to go down without a fight. The betting line implies that this will be a high-scoring affair, but don't be surprised if the Swiss decide to slow things down in Milan.

Predicted Result: Switzerland advances.
Knockout Round - (#6) Germany vs (#11) France
GER vs FRA Betting Odds & Team Comparison

Market Germany (GER) France (FRA)

Moneyline -820 +550

Puck Line (Spread) -1.5 (-300) +1.5 (+235)

Total (Over/Under 7.5) Over: +134 Under: -165

The Germans suffered two losses in group play, but were still awarded the sixth-seed by virtue of the tiebreaker. With that, they were granted a virtual free pass, battling it out with France in the first knockout round. Germany is chalky favorites, but can't take anything for granted. Expect this game to be closer than the betting line implies, and don't be surprised if overtime is needed to determine a winner.

Predicted Result: Germany advances.
Knockout Round - (#7) Sweden vs (#10) Latvia
SWE vs LAT Betting Odds & Team Comparison

Market Sweden (SWE) Latvia (LAT)

Moneyline -1050 +660

Puck Line (Spread) -1.5 (-310) +1.5 (+240)

Total (Over/Under 6.5) Over: -110 Under: -110

Sweden's record in the group stage wasn't as unremarkable as their seeding implies. Still, they'll have their hands full trying to escape a first-round matchup versus Latvia. The Latvians are more than capable of stunning their Scandinavian counterparts, and that's exactly what we're predicting on Tuesday.

Predicted Result: Latvia advances.
Knockout Round - (#8) Czechia vs (#9) Denmark
CZE vs DEN Betting Odds & Team Comparison

Market Czechia (CZE) Denmark (DEN)

Moneyline -320 +250

Puck Line (Spread) -1.5 (-115) +1.5 (-102)

Total (Over/Under 6.5) Over: -110 Under: -110

Czechia vs Denmark rounds out the last of the first-round matchups. Czechia's lone win came against France in the group stage, while Denmark's lone victory came against Latvia. Curiously, the Danes looked more ferocious in the attacking zone, and they have a big advantage with Frederik Andersen between the pipes. This won't be the most dramatic upset of the opening round, but we like Denmark's chances of stunning the Czechs.

Predicted Result: Denmark advances.
Quarterfinals (#1) Canada vs (#9) Denmark
As the top seed, Canada is afforded the least obstructed path to the medal rounds. They will face the winner of Czechia vs. Denmark, which we predict will be an unexpected encounter with the Danes. Regardless of the matchup, we predict the Canadians' gold-medal march will continue to the semifinals.

Predicted Result: Canada advances.
Quarterfinals - (#2) USA vs (#10) Latvia
The Americans will be hoping that they don't have to go through Sweden to get to the semifinals. Thankfully, our projections have the Latvians rife with upset potential. Still, Latvia won't be able to pull off back-to-back upset wins. Team USA is virtually guaranteed a spot in the semis if this matchup comes to fruition.

Predicted Result: USA advances.
Quarterfinals - (#3) Slovakia vs (#6) Germany
This is kind of a nightmare matchup for Slovakia. Germany has a pair of elite scorers up front and can also play with a defensive edge to limit the Slovaks' offense. After being on the receiving end of some puck luck in the round robin, we expect Slovakia's tournament to come to an unexpected end in the quarterfinals.

Predicted Result: Germany advances.
Quarterfinals (#4) Finland vs (#5) Switzerland
Finland has shown that it can skate with the best of them, and will need to be at its finest to get past an upstart Swiss team. Seemingly out of nowhere, Switzerland is a force on the international hockey stage. However, Finland possesses a much deeper roster. This will be appointment viewing, as it would likely be the most entertaining quarterfinal matchup.

Predicted Result: Finland advances.
Semifinals - (#1) Canada vs (#6) Germany
It's worth noting that teams get re-seeded in the semifinals. That means the top-ranked Canadians will get the lowest remaining seed. If things play out as we expect, Canada will face Germany in the final four. Canada's superiority will be evident in every facet of the game. While Germany will put its best foot forward, it will still result in a one-sided loss.

Predicted Result: Canada advances.
Semifinals - (#2) USA vs (#4) Finland
Yet to face a real challenge, Team USA will be on the defensive early versus Finland. The defending gold medal champs have more than enough firepower and defensive integrity to hang with the Americans. In the end, we predict Team USA's skill will shine through, and they narrowly escape a battle-tested Finnish side.

Predicted Result: USA advances.
Bronze Medal Game - (#4) Finland vs (#6) Germany
The Finns may have to relinquish their Olympic crown, but they won't go home empty-handed. The Germans will be out-gunned from start to finish (ahem), losing traction with each passing minute. Finland's convincing win keeps it front and center as one of the pre-eminent hockey powerhouses in the world.

Predicted Result: Finland wins bronze.
Gold Medal Game - (#1) Canada vs (#2) USA
This is the dream matchup everyone has been waiting for since the 4 Nations Face-Off. Team USA and Canada reignite their heated rivalry, matching last year's intensity. Despite the Americans' best efforts, it's not enough to match Canada's depth and superiority. This win is more convincing than last year's overtime victory, vaulting Canada back to the top of the hockey world.

Predicted Result: Canada wins gold. The USA wins silver.
#1 Seed - Canada
Gold Medal Odds: -135

First-Round Matchup: Bye

As expected, Canada rolled through the group stage with relative ease. In doing so, the Canadians' gold medal odds have surged even higher, staking themselves to a -135 price at the outset of the knockout round. Canada's precision scoring can't be matched. It will take a mighty defensive effort to knock the powerhouse off its stride.

2026 Milan-Cortina Olympics: Predicting the Men’s Hockey Knockout Round

SUI vs ITA Betting Odds & Team Comparison

GER vs FRA Betting Odds & Team Comparison

SWE vs LAT Betting Odds & Team Comparison

CZE vs DEN Betting Odds & Team Comparison

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Market	Switzerland (SUI)	Italy (ITA)
Moneyline	-1800	+920
Puck Line (Spread)	-1.5 (-480)	+1.5 (+350)
Total (Over/Under 6.5)	Over: -150	Under: +124

Market	Germany (GER)	France (FRA)
Moneyline	-820	+550
Puck Line (Spread)	-1.5 (-300)	+1.5 (+235)
Total (Over/Under 7.5)	Over: +134	Under: -165

Market	Sweden (SWE)	Latvia (LAT)
Moneyline	-1050	+660
Puck Line (Spread)	-1.5 (-310)	+1.5 (+240)
Total (Over/Under 6.5)	Over: -110	Under: -110

Market	Czechia (CZE)	Denmark (DEN)
Moneyline	-320	+250
Puck Line (Spread)	-1.5 (-115)	+1.5 (-102)
Total (Over/Under 6.5)	Over: -110	Under: -110