NFL · 8 hours ago

Yahoo Sports Ranks the 5 Most Likely NFL Teams to Regress Ahead of 2026 Season

John Canady

Host · Writer

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5) Carolina Panthers
Reason for Regression: Overachievement

The Panthers became one of the NFL’s feel-good stories late last season, but there’s a real argument that Carolina overachieved just getting into the postseason. So many of the Panthers’ wins came in one-possession games, and the underlying numbers painted the picture of a team still searching for consistency on both sides of the ball. If Bryce Young takes another leap, Carolina could stay competitive, but a tougher schedule makes repeating that playoff run far from guaranteed.

“On top of not being a very good team last season, the Panthers now get the third toughest schedule in the NFL.” — Frank Schwab
1) Chicago Bears
Reason for Regression: Turnover differential

The Bears finally broke through last season, but sustaining that kind of jump is a completely different challenge. A massive turnover margin covered up plenty of inconsistencies, and now the pressure shifts squarely onto Caleb Williams to elevate the offense enough to offset what’s likely coming defensively and situationally. Chicago absolutely has the talent to stay competitive in the NFC, but matching 11 wins against a much tougher schedule feels like a tall order.

“There are other metrics that say the Bears won’t repeat as an 11-win team. Williams’ improvement could even that out, but he might have to improve a lot to overcome some impending regression.” — Frank Schwab
2) New England Patriots
Reason for Regression: Strength of schedule

The Patriots were one of the NFL’s biggest surprises a season ago, but nearly everything broke their way during that 14-win campaign. Between elite injury luck, a soft schedule, and a knack for surviving close games, New England consistently found itself on the right side of razor-thin margins. That doesn’t take away from what Drake Maye accomplished, but history says repeating those conditions is incredibly difficult.

“The Patriots were the luckiest team in the NFL last season when it came to adjusted games lost due to injury. That was a massive advantage and very hard to repeat.” — Frank Schwab
3) Denver Broncos
Reason for Regression: Record in close games

Denver earned its respect last season behind a championship-level defense and the steady hand of Sean Payton, but winning close games at that rate is rarely sustainable year over year. The Broncos consistently executed late, yet an 11-2 mark in one-score games usually swings back toward the middle. Even great teams struggle to live on the edge every week in the NFL.

“Having a fantastic defense and a great head coach in Sean Payton gives Denver an edge in close games, but a record that lopsided in close contests is not repeatable.” — Frank Schwab
4) Jacksonville Jaguars
Reason for Regression: Plexiglass principle

Jacksonville’s turnaround was one of the best stories in football last season, but maintaining that momentum without major roster upgrades could become an issue. The Jaguars benefited from strong turnover luck and didn’t aggressively reload this offseason, which puts even more pressure on their existing core to replicate a 13-win standard. That’s difficult for any franchise, especially after such a dramatic leap the year before.

“It’s hard to see a roster that had more losses than gains in the offseason being better in 2026.” — Frank Schwab
5) Carolina Panthers
Reason for Regression: Overachievement

The Panthers became one of the NFL’s feel-good stories late last season, but there’s a real argument that Carolina overachieved just getting into the postseason. So many of the Panthers’ wins came in one-possession games, and the underlying numbers painted the picture of a team still searching for consistency on both sides of the ball. If Bryce Young takes another leap, Carolina could stay competitive, but a tougher schedule makes repeating that playoff run far from guaranteed.

“On top of not being a very good team last season, the Panthers now get the third toughest schedule in the NFL.” — Frank Schwab
1) Chicago Bears
Reason for Regression: Turnover differential

The Bears finally broke through last season, but sustaining that kind of jump is a completely different challenge. A massive turnover margin covered up plenty of inconsistencies, and now the pressure shifts squarely onto Caleb Williams to elevate the offense enough to offset what’s likely coming defensively and situationally. Chicago absolutely has the talent to stay competitive in the NFC, but matching 11 wins against a much tougher schedule feels like a tall order.

“There are other metrics that say the Bears won’t repeat as an 11-win team. Williams’ improvement could even that out, but he might have to improve a lot to overcome some impending regression.” — Frank Schwab

undefined Game Odds

May 26 6:10 PM

SpreadMoneyTotal

WSH

+1.5

+116

O 7.5

CLE

-1.5

-134

U 7.5

May 26 6:35 PM

SpreadMoneyTotal

TB

-1.5

-112

O 8.5

BAL

+1.5

-104

U 8.5

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