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NBA · 10 hours ago

Ranking the Top 12 NBA Championship Title Contenders Right Now

Sportsgrid Staff

Host · Writer

Just Missed The Cut
Miami Heat (29-27)

The Miami Heat have a solid two-way base with a plus-2.3 net rating and a 2.6 Simple Rating System, and their last ten defense is strong at 107.9. The record is lagging the pythagorean expectation - 32-24 expected vs. 29-27 actual - but the seeding hole is real at eighth in the East.

Philadelphia 76ers (30-24)

The Philadelphia 76ers have the lead scorer you want in Tyrese Maxey at 28.9 points per game with 6.8 assists and 59.8% true shooting. The team profile is too neutral for a true title case right now - plus-0.3 net rating, 0.1 Simple Rating System, and a 27-27 pythagorean record.

Charlotte Hornets (26-29)

The Charlotte Hornets are playing like a contender lately at 9-1 in the last ten, and the offense is real at 117.6 for the season. The problem is the standings and path - ninth in the East with a 26-29 record, even if the pythagorean record says 31-24.

Data from Blitz. Stats as of February 16.
NBA Title Teams Ranked
The top of the board is getting clearer. The Oklahoma City Thunder have the best profile in basketball, but the real story is how many teams are living in the same tier right behind them.

This is not a power ranking. It is a title filter. Net rating and Simple Rating System matter most, and pythagorean record is the lie detector. The Simple Rating System is a margin-of-victory measure adjusted for strength of schedule. Pythagorean record is an expected win-loss mark based on points scored and allowed—it estimates how many games a team should have won given their point differential, so it flags teams whose actual record is inflated or deflated by close-game luck.

When the actual record is way better than the pythagorean record, you're usually looking at a team living on thin margins, and those are the teams to fade in betting markets.

Attack the Paint with SportsGrid's Free NBA Picks and Player Props Markets.
1. Oklahoma City Thunder (42-14)
The Oklahoma City Thunder owns the best résumé in the league with a plus-11.6 net rating and 11.2 Simple Rating System. Shai Gilgeous Alexander is driving it at 31.8 points per game on 55.4% shooting and 67.0% true shooting, with 6.4 assists per game. Chet Holmgren gives them a real playoff anchor with 17.4 points, 8.7 rebounds, and 1.9 blocks per game on 65.1% true shooting. The pythagorean check is even louder: 45-11 expected vs. 42-14 actual. The only nit is recent form: they are 5-5 in the last ten, with the defense up to 112.4 over that span.
2. Detroit Pistons (40-13)
The Detroit Pistons are built like a one seed, with an 8.0 net rating and a 6.9 Simple Rating System, and they are 8-2 in their last 10. Cade Cunningham is playing like a playoff engine at 25.3 points and 9.6 assists per game, even with a modest 56.8% true shooting. Duncan Robinson is the spacing lever at 12.3 points per game and 40.1% from three, and Ausar Thompson adds two-way juice with 6.0 rebounds and 1.9 steals per game. Their pythagorean record is basically identical - 39-14 expected vs. 40-13 actual - which makes the profile feel real. The question is ceiling offense in tight series, because the defense is good, not dominant, at 109.2.
3. San Antonio Spurs (38-16)
The San Antonio Spurs look like a second-round problem for anyone with a 6.1 Simple Rating System and a steady plus-5.9 net rating. They are also 8-2 in the last ten, with a 109.0 defensive rating in that stretch. The focus is on the future: rising star Stephon Castle is one of the most exciting young prospects in the league, Victor Wembanyama is becoming one of the premier faces of the league, and Dylan Harper is steadily improving. The pythagorean record is a small warning label - 36-18 expected vs. 38-16 actual.
4. Boston Celtics (35-19)
The Boston Celtics still grade out like a contender because their offense is elite at 120.7, and their overall profile sits at a plus-7.2 net rating with a 6.0 Simple Rating System. They are overperforming without their star, and Jayson Tatum is looking likely to return in the near future. Jaylen Brown is the headliner at 29.3 points per game, and he is holding efficiency at 57.1% true shooting. Derrick White and Payton Pritchard both sit at 17.2 points per game, but White's efficiency is a concern at 52.2% true shooting. The pythagorean record says they have played better than the standings - 38-16 expected vs. 35-19 actual. That gap matters if they are chasing seeding in the East.
5. New York Knicks (35-20)
The New York Knicks are peaking at the right time with an 8-2 last ten and a 104.4 defensive rating over that stretch. On the season, they are still strong, with a plus-6.2 net rating and a 5.5 Simple Rating System, which is the backbone of a real run. Jalen Brunson is the playoff shot-maker at 27.0 points and 6.1 assists per game on 58.7% true shooting. Karl Anthony Towns adds size and scoring with 19.8 points and 11.9 rebounds per game, while Mikal Bridges is the clean fit wing at 60.4% true shooting. The pythagorean record likes them a bit more than the standings - 37-18 expected vs. 35-20 actual.
6. Cleveland Cavaliers (34-21)
The Cleveland Cavaliers have the hottest short-term profile in the league at 9-1 in the last ten, with a blistering 124.9 offensive rating in that run. Donovan Mitchell is the driver at 29.0 points per game on 61.9% true shooting, and his last ten scoring is even higher at 29.5. Evan Mobley provides playoff-level defense and secondary creation, averaging 17.9 points, 8.8 rebounds, and 2.0 blocks per game. Jaylon Tyson is a real swing piece if the shooting holds - 47.5% from three and 63.1% true shooting. Their pythagorean record matches the actual 34-21, so this is not smoke. James Harden raises their championship ceiling with his immense experience.
7. Houston Rockets (33-20)
The Houston Rockets have a contender's base with a plus-5.2 net rating and a 4.8 Simple Rating System, even if the last ten have been flat at 6-4 with basically even efficiency. Kevin Durant is still the cleanest playoff scorer on this list outside the very top tier, putting up 25.8 points per game on 62.7% true shooting and 40.3% from three. Alperen Sengun is filling the stat sheet at 20.7 / 9.4 / 6.3 splits. Amen Thompson brings the all-court impact at 17.6 points, 7.6 rebounds, and 5.4 assists per game, but the shooting is a real playoff pressure point at 20.5% from three. Jabari Smith rounds out the top sample with 15.2 points and 7.1 rebounds per game. The pythagorean record is bullish - 35-18 expected vs. 33-20 actual.
8. Minnesota Timberwolves (34-22)
The Minnesota Timberwolves are trending up with a 7-3 last ten and a plus-8.3 average point differential in that span. Season-long, they sit at plus-4.9 net rating and 4.2 Simple Rating System, which is real contender territory if the matchup breaks right. Anthony Edwards is as good as any primary scoring option in the league at 29.3 points per game. Julius Randle is the offensive hub at 22.3 points and 5.4 assists per game on 59.9% true shooting. Jaden McDaniels is the swing efficiency piece at 15.0 points per game on 62.3% true shooting and 45.4% from three. Donte DiVincenzo gives them volume shooting at 38.3% from three, but his 41.2% field goal mark hints at volatility. The pythagorean record says they have left wins on the table - 36-20 expected vs. 34-22 actual.
9. Denver Nuggets (35-20)
The Denver Nuggets have the scariest offense in the field at 122.2 offensive rating, but the defense is the tax at 118.1, keeping them at plus-4.1 net rating. Nikola Jokic is the reason this team could win it all. Jamal Murray is playing at a title-guard level with 25.7 points and 7.6 assists per game, plus 42.5% from three and 61.5% true shooting. Peyton Watson has popped as a secondary scorer at 14.9 points per game, and his last ten scoring is up to 19.4. Tim Hardaway Jr. is another spacing piece at 40.9% from three and 63.3% true shooting. The pythagorean record is basically identical - 34-21 expected vs. 35-20 actual - so the defense is the real concern, not luck.
10. Toronto Raptors (32-23)
The Toronto Raptors are the toughest sell in the top twelve, because the margin profile is thin at plus-1.5 net rating and 1.3 Simple Rating System. Still, they have real top-end talent in Brandon Ingram at 21.8 points per game and Scottie Barnes at 19.3 points, 8.4 rebounds, and 5.6 assists per game. Immanuel Quickley provides them with guard production at 17.0 points and 6.1 assists per game, shooting 38.0% from three. The pythagorean record is a warning - 30-25 expected vs. 32-23 actual - and the plus-two luck factor backs that up. They can win a series, but four rounds demand a higher defensive ceiling than 113.2.
11. Phoenix Suns (32-23)
The Phoenix Suns are hanging in the mix, but the profile is more play-in dangerous than title dominant right now. They sit at plus-1.8 net rating and 2.1 Simple Rating System, and the last ten have been a wash at 5-5 with a 117.2 defensive rating. Dillon Brooks is carrying a big scoring load at 21.2 points per game, but his efficiency is shaky at 54.9% true shooting. Collin Gillespie has been efficient for a guard at 59.4% true shooting with 13.3 points and 4.7 assists per game, and Royce ONeale is hitting 40.5% from three. The pythagorean record is close - 31-24 expected vs. 32-23 actual - so this is mostly about whether the defense can stabilize.
12. Los Angeles Lakers (33-21)
The Los Angeles Lakers are the ultimate "star can steal a series" team because Luka Doncic is putting up 32.8 points, 7.8 rebounds, and 8.6 assists per game on 61.4% true shooting. The team profile is the red flag: 0.0 net rating, -0.2 Simple Rating System, and a pythagorean record of 27-27. That is a massive gap from 33-21 actual, backed by a plus-six luck factor. Even at 41, LeBron James—alongside Luka Doncic and Austin Reaves—gives the Lakers a trio that can match any in the league in a single series, and that star power keeps them in the title mix. Rui Hachimura has been efficient at 62.0% true shooting and 44.7% from three, but the scoring volume is modest at 12.1 points per game. Jake LaRavia is another rotation-level piece at 9.5 points per game. If they are going to win four rounds, the defense has to be something other than 117.5.
Just Missed The Cut
Miami Heat (29-27)

The Miami Heat have a solid two-way base with a plus-2.3 net rating and a 2.6 Simple Rating System, and their last ten defense is strong at 107.9. The record is lagging the pythagorean expectation - 32-24 expected vs. 29-27 actual - but the seeding hole is real at eighth in the East.

Philadelphia 76ers (30-24)

The Philadelphia 76ers have the lead scorer you want in Tyrese Maxey at 28.9 points per game with 6.8 assists and 59.8% true shooting. The team profile is too neutral for a true title case right now - plus-0.3 net rating, 0.1 Simple Rating System, and a 27-27 pythagorean record.

Charlotte Hornets (26-29)

The Charlotte Hornets are playing like a contender lately at 9-1 in the last ten, and the offense is real at 117.6 for the season. The problem is the standings and path - ninth in the East with a 26-29 record, even if the pythagorean record says 31-24.

Data from Blitz. Stats as of February 16.
NBA Title Teams Ranked
The top of the board is getting clearer. The Oklahoma City Thunder have the best profile in basketball, but the real story is how many teams are living in the same tier right behind them.

This is not a power ranking. It is a title filter. Net rating and Simple Rating System matter most, and pythagorean record is the lie detector. The Simple Rating System is a margin-of-victory measure adjusted for strength of schedule. Pythagorean record is an expected win-loss mark based on points scored and allowed—it estimates how many games a team should have won given their point differential, so it flags teams whose actual record is inflated or deflated by close-game luck.

When the actual record is way better than the pythagorean record, you're usually looking at a team living on thin margins, and those are the teams to fade in betting markets.

Attack the Paint with SportsGrid's Free NBA Picks and Player Props Markets.

Feb 18 6:00 PM

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+733

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Feb 18 6:00 PM

SpreadMoneyTotal

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