Daily NBA Prediction Markets Wrapped: Kalshi Market Movers

Detroit’s top-of-the-table pricing keeps getting firmer, while Oklahoma City’s “best record" contract just took a real hit. That split is the cleanest story on the board right now. It also lines up with how traders are treating the one-seed markets versus the league-best record market.

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Top Kalshi NBA Movers That Mattered

• Oklahoma City Thunder best regular-season record dropped from 63c to 48c (-23.81%). The market is backing off the “best record" path fast.

• New York Knicks Eastern Conference title slid from 19c to 16c (-15.79%). That’s a meaningful repricing in a liquid futures bucket with 14,202 contracts traded in the last twenty-four hours.

• Jaylen Brown Eastern Conference Finals Most Valuable Player cratered from 12c to 2c (-83.33%). It’s a massive move, but it came on zero 24-hour volume, so it reads more like a thin print than a consensus shift.

• Anthony Edwards Western Conference Finals Most Valuable Player fell from 7c to 3c (-57.14%). That’s a sharp narrative reset in a niche market.

• Victor Wembanyama Most Valuable Player jumped from 3c to 5c (+66.67%) with 19,786 contracts traded in the last twenty-four hours. That’s real participation for a longshot lane.

• Jalen Duren Most Improved Player ripped from 6c to 20c (+233.33%) on 4,386 contracts traded in the last twenty-four hours. That’s one of the loudest single-name moves on the awards board.

• Ryan Rollins Most Improved Player climbed from 2c to 5c (+150.0%) with 11,545 contracts traded in the last twenty-four hours. The price is still low, but the flow is not.

• Stephen Curry three-pointers made per game leader dropped from 45c to 30c (-33.33%) while still doing 708 contracts in the last twenty-four hours. That’s a notable fade in a stat-leader market.

• Detroit Pistons Eastern Conference one seed moved from 80c to 86c (+7.5%). It’s already priced like a favorite, and traders still pushed it higher.

Kalshi NBA Volume And Order Book Highlights

• Cade Cunningham Most Valuable Player led the day’s action with 43,636 contracts traded in the last twenty-four hours. Price is still modest at 14c last.

• Miami Heat Eastern Conference title saw 25,764 contracts traded in the last twenty-four hours, despite sitting at 2c last. That’s heavy churn at the bottom.

• New York Knicks Eastern Conference title also popped on volume at 14,202 contracts traded in the last twenty-four hours, even as the price fell.

• Oklahoma City Thunder Western Conference title remains one of the deepest markets on the board with 287,750 open interest and 1,769 contracts traded in the last twenty-four hours.

• Detroit best regular-season record shows real uncertainty. It has a 15-cent yes spread (31c bid, 46c ask), even with 1,633 contracts traded in the last twenty-four hours.

• Anthony Edwards Clutch Player of the Year is trading with a 6-cent yes spread (49c bid, 55c ask) and closed at 60c. That’s a wide gap for a top-of-board price.

Kalshi NBA Notable Markets Worth Watching

• Detroit Pistons Eastern Conference one seed is priced at 86c last with a tight 84c bid and 86c ask. The market is treating it like near-lock territory.

• Oklahoma City Thunder Western Conference one seed is 75c last, but it closed lower on the day at 76c (-1.3%). That’s a small drift, but it’s the kind that can snowball.

• Oklahoma City Thunder Western Conference title sits at 50c last with a tight 50c bid and 51c ask. It’s one of the cleanest, most efficient order books.

• Nikola Jokic Most Valuable Player is steady but active at 25c last with 5,478 contracts traded in the last twenty-four hours. That’s still a major lane in the MVP market.

• Victor Wembanyama Defensive Player of the Year is holding the top slot at 72c last and also posted 1,880 contracts traded in the last twenty-four hours. The market is not blinking.

Kalshi NBA Market Edge

• The market is more confident in Detroit’s one-seed path (86c) than Detroit’s best record path, which is still messy on the spread.

• Oklahoma City took a material hit in “best record" pricing (-23.81%) without the West title market collapsing. That divergence is the key watch.

• The loudest awards action is in MVP and Most Improved Player, led by Cade Cunningham MVP volume and the Jalen Duren price spike.

• Thin markets can still print wild moves. Jaylen Brown Eastern Conference Finals Most Valuable Player is the warning label with zero 24-hour volume.

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