Best NBA Bets Sunday, February 22: Trends, Predictions & Picks for Tonight
Grant White
Host · Writer
Nine games today, and the slate has a theme: the market is begging you to decide how much missing star power matters. The Oklahoma City Thunder are without Shai Gilgeous-Alexander (abdominal) and Jalen Williams (hamstring). The Golden State Warriors are without Stephen Curry (patellofemoral). The Milwaukee Bucks are without Giannis Antetokounmpo (calf). That’s how you get spreads that look clean, then play dirty.
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Best Bet: Oklahoma City Thunder -4.5 (3 units)
Where to Watch the Oklahoma City Thunder vs. Cleveland Cavaliers Tonight
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- Arena: Paycom Center
- Location: Oklahoma City, OK
- Where to Watch: NBA League Pass
- Date: February 22, 2026
- Time: 1:00 PM ET
NBA Betting Odds Today: Thunder vs. Cavaliers Moneyline, Spread & Kalshi Probabilities
| Team | Spread | Moneyline | Implied Prob. | Kalshi Chance |
| Cleveland Cavaliers | 4.5 (-112) | +152 | 39.7% | 38% |
| Oklahoma City Thunder | -4.5 (-109) | -183 | 64.7% | 62% |
Odds as of February 22, 2026, at 11:41 AM ET
Yeah, I’m laying it with a short-handed Oklahoma City team. That’s the whole point. The Thunder are still No. 1 in points allowed (107.6) and No. 1 in defensive rating (107.7). That’s the identity. That travels inside your own building too.
Now look at what Cleveland is walking into stylistically. The Cavaliers are elite offensively at 119.8 points per game (3rd) and a 118.6 offensive rating (5th), but Oklahoma City is built to take away guard creation. The Thunder are No. 1 against point guards in assists allowed (3.7) and No. 2 in points allowed to point guards (11.4). That matters when you’re staring at a Cleveland roster led by Donovan Mitchell (28.8 points per game) and James Harden (25.4 points per game, 8.1 assists per game).
And I’m not ignoring the market signal. Kalshi has Oklahoma City at 62% to win, and the moneyline implies 64.7%. That’s tight. I’m fine living in that range because the Thunder defense is the best unit on the floor, and Cleveland’s defense is just middle of the pack at 115.3 points allowed (16th). No excuses. I’m taking the home favorite.
Expert Pick: New York Knicks -10.5 (2 units)
Where to Watch the Chicago Bulls vs. New York Knicks Tonight
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- Arena: United Center
- Location: Chicago, IL
- Where to Watch: NBA League Pass
- Date: February 22, 2026
- Time: 8:00 PM ET
NBA Betting Odds Today: Bulls vs. Knicks Moneyline, Spread & Kalshi Probabilities
| Team | Spread | Moneyline | Implied Prob. | Kalshi Chance |
| New York Knicks | -10.5 (-108) | -467 | 82.4% | 81% |
| Chicago Bulls | 10.5 (-113) | +358 | 21.8% | 20% |
Odds as of February 22, 2026, at 11:41 AM ET
Chicago at home has been a money shredder. The Bulls are 1-9 in their last ten at home and an unbelievable 0-8 against the spread in that span. That’s not variance. That’s the market consistently overrating them in this building.
New York is the opposite profile. The Knicks are 7-3 in their last ten on the road and 6-3 against the spread in that stretch. They also bring the exact style that buries teams like this. New York is 4th in turnovers (13.5) and 4th in made threes (14.8). Chicago’s defense is bleeding at 120.5 points allowed (26th) with a 118.2 defensive rating (25th).
Both teams are on a back-to-back. Fine. I’ll still side with the team that defends and doesn’t beat itself. New York is 6th in points allowed (112.0). Chicago is 28th in assists allowed (28.5). That’s how you let good offenses get comfortable. I’m laying the big number again.
The SportsGrid Betting Edge
- Best Bet (3 units): Oklahoma City Thunder -4.5
- Expert Pick (2 units): New York Knicks -10.5
Two bets. Two clear stories. I’m backing the best defense in the league at home, and I’m fading Chicago’s home court like it’s radioactive. Ride with me or fade me, but don’t sit in the middle and complain when the window cashes without you.
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