World Series Game 3 Odds: Tampa Bay vs. Milwaukee Preview

Segment Spotlight: Quick Hits From Game Time Decisions

World Series Game 3 Outlook: Tampa Bay Faces Milwaukee’s Dominant Bullpen

Game 3 of the World Series is drawing some over money. The total moved from 7.5 back down to 7, with the over carrying extra juice. Tampa Bay and Freddie Peralta are around -115 to -120, with the price moving by about five cents in either direction.

For Milwaukee backers, this could be the best price available. Robert Gasser is starting rather than Mizarrowski or Logan Anderson, but the starting pitcher has not mattered much for the Brewers. Their starters have generally worked five innings before the same group of relievers takes over.

The Brewers have 11 pitchers on the roster, but their bullpen usage has remained concentrated. There is also uncertainty about whether Woodruff will pitch in the series.

A Tampa Bay win would make the series more competitive. If Milwaukee wins and takes a 3-0 lead, it would likely be a heavy favorite again in Game 4, even on the road.

There is reason to believe Game 3 could produce nine or 10 runs through home runs or manufactured offense. Peralta struggled with the Mets before pitching well for Tampa Bay, but he often works only about five innings. Gasser may not make it through four.

In a regular-season game in Saint Petersburg in July, a total of 7 with this pitching matchup would make the over appealing. The postseason changes that calculation, especially because Milwaukee’s bullpen continues to prevent runs.

Tampa Bay may need to hold a lead into the sixth or seventh inning. Uribe has been the only slightly shaky Milwaukee reliever, and even he has still pitched well. McGill did not pitch in Game 2, so he should be rested for Game 3.

Rasmussen’s performance with an extra day of rest was surprising, although he remains a strong pitcher. He may pitch once more in the series. His absence from Game 1 suggested the team knew something about his condition and chose to move in another direction.

After a Cy Young-type season, Rasmussen may be nearing the end of the line for this year. Uribe, Ashby and McGill have also carried enormous workloads. Relievers must sit for several innings before warming up quickly and entering the highest-leverage part of a game, yet Milwaukee’s bullpen continues to perform at a high level.

Tampa Bay must find a way to beat those relievers. Otherwise, it will be difficult to extend the series to six or seven games and create a chance to win it.