Why the Packers Are a Super Bowl Value Bet at 30-1

Segment Spotlight: Quick Hits From Pushing The Odds with Matt Perrault

Why the Green Bay Packers Offer Value at 30-to-1

The Green Bay Packers are 30-to-1 to win the Super Bowl, and I made my first Super Bowl bet on them at that price. The wager is driven by both Green Bay’s improving roster and the current state of the NFC.

Getting Josh Jacobs and the running game back is huge. Green Bay now has two running backs instead of one. On defense, Micah Parsons will return and add a dynamic pass rusher. Coming back from an ACL injury, he will likely need about a month to reach game shape, but the Packers’ defense has already figured things out. Adding a game-wrecking talent to that pass rush could make a major difference.

When I look at Green Bay’s potential playoff path, the Packers should not be 30-to-1. There is also an irresistible storyline: The first Super Bowl played on Valentine’s Day could feature a quarterback named Love. Jordan Love playing in the Super Bowl on Valentine’s Day almost writes itself.

I do not need the Packers to win the Super Bowl or even reach it for this wager to offer an opportunity. They just need to reach the NFC Championship Game. It is the same type of bet I made with the Brewers and the White Sox, including a profitable 25-to-1 wager on the White Sox.

The Packers also benefit from a weak division. I do not buy the Bears. The Patriots are only three-point underdogs on Thursday at Chicago despite sending an extremely banged-up roster into a difficult environment. That line shows what bookmakers think about Caleb versus Drake May.

I am not buying the Lions, either, although the Lions-Packers game has a total of 52.5 that looks like an over. I also do not buy the Vikings at 5-0.

The NFC East is not convincing. The Giants, Eagles, Cowboys and Commanders all have significant problems. In the West, I am not interested in Seattle without Kirk or Kubiak. Sam Darnold is back to being Sam Darnold, and the team needs a running game it does not have. Charbonnet will return, but he is not good enough to save Seattle’s season.

The Cardinals are 2-4, while the Rams are also 2-4 and look like the biggest dumpster fire in football. Miles Garrett returning will not solve their problems, and Devante Adams could be out for 10 weeks. Puka also gets hurt frequently.

This wager is less about loving the Packers and more about evaluating which team can emerge from the NFC. The 49ers and Vikings are the two best teams, and I would put Green Bay behind them. Even so, 30-to-1 is too high for the Packers.

Green Bay has won three consecutive games. If that streak reaches four, five, six or seven games, the current odds will disappear. This is primarily a numbers play based on the conference landscape.

There are obvious risks. If Jordan Love gets hurt, the bet is dead. The same could be true if the Packers suffer several injuries or lose players such as Watson or Golden. From a value perspective, however, 30-to-1 does not reflect the current state of the NFC or Green Bay’s possible path through the postseason and into the Super Bowl.

The Packers at 30-to-1 offer value, and bettors can shop around to see whether better odds are available. With Milwaukee in the World Series, perhaps Green Bay can reach the Super Bowl and everything will come up Wisconsin this year.