Tampa Bay-Milwaukee Total: Is the Over the Best Bet?

Segment Spotlight: Quick Hits From Game Time Decisions

Pitching Uncertainty Raises Questions About Tonight’s Low Total

With the total sitting around six or 6.5, Tampa Bay’s uncertain pitching situation could make the number too low. Misiorowski has been impressive, but his recent strikeout numbers have declined and he has allowed some runs.

Misiorowski generated seven strikeouts on 41 swings in his last game, a 17% rate and his lowest in any start of 2026. He has struck out 14 of 55 batters in the postseason, or 25%, after posting a 37% rate during the regular season that led Major League Baseball.

Something may be affecting him, whether it is fatigue, nerves or another factor. However, he is pitching on full rest and understands that this is the biggest start of his career. A strong outing is still expected, even though he and Drew Rasmussen are entering uncharted territory this deep into the season.

Predicting how many innings either starter will work remains difficult. Managers have been quick to make changes, sometimes preparing to go to the bullpen as early as the third inning. Milwaukee appears to have better and less-used options available, while Tampa Bay’s path is less clear if Rasmussen exits after four innings.

Rasmussen struggled on short rest in his previous appearance, but Tampa Bay has little choice but to use him. Nick Martinez threw a couple of innings yesterday after starting Game 1, making it difficult to imagine him pitching again tonight. He could also be needed if the series reaches a seventh game.

Tampa Bay’s remaining options are limited. Baker pitched two innings yesterday and could appear again if needed, although another two-inning outing seems unlikely. Wells cannot be used, while Boozer has already pitched on consecutive days. Seymour has also been used heavily and is unlikely to provide more than an inning.

Steven Matz was an interesting early choice out of the bullpen in a previous game and performed reasonably well. Clevinger had not pitched since the middle of September before appearing earlier in the series. With the staff so limited, traditional righty-righty matchup decisions may become less important than simply using whoever is available.

Milwaukee also has decisions to make. Pat Murphy must determine whether Drohan’s performance yesterday means giving him another opportunity or shelving him in favor of an option such as Woodruff. Those bullpen choices could ultimately determine whether the low total proves justified.