Brewers' World Series Odds Look Inflated vs. Tampa Bay

Segment Spotlight: Quick Hits From Game Time Decisions

Milwaukee’s World Series Price Draws Debate After LA Sweep

Milwaukee entered as a -176 favorite, a larger number than expected despite having home-field advantage and the best record in baseball. A price closer to -150 or -155 appeared more reasonable, particularly because Tampa Bay had its division locked up with a couple of weeks remaining while Milwaukee was still battling the Dodgers for the best record.

The inflated price may be a reaction to Milwaukee’s performance against LA. The Brewers did not simply dethrone the Dodgers; they swept them. Had Milwaukee won that series in five, six, or seven games, the spread likely would have looked much different. Oddsmakers also have to protect themselves after such a decisive result.

Milwaukee’s home record is another factor. The Brewers rarely lose in their own park and have repeatedly found ways to come back, even when trailing 2-1 late. With home-field advantage, they deserve to be favored and are the pick to win the World Series, but a price around -140 or -150 would have made more sense.

Vanel’s moved Milwaukee as high as -182, making the price even steeper. That number appears to be inviting bettors to take Tampa Bay, raising the question of whether the oddsmakers know something.