UFC Fight Night: Adesanya vs. Pyfer | UFC Picks Today, Best Bets
Tyler Mason
Host · Writer
A middleweight fight headlines UFC Fight Night 271 as former champion and No. 4-ranked Israel “The Last Stylebender" Adesanya taking on No. 14-ranked Joe “Bodybagz" Pyfer.
- Arena: Climate Pledge Arena
- Location: Seattle, Washington, United States
- Where to Watch: Paramount+
- Date: March 28, 2026
- Time: 8:00 p.m. ET
UFC Fight Night: Michael Chiesa vs. Niko Price
Unranked welterweights Michael Chiesa and Niko Price will face off. Chiesa is 3-3 over his last six, having won three straight after dropping the previous three. Price is 2-7 (1) over his previous ten bouts and has lost his last three in a row.
Chiesa is one inch taller, but Price has a half-inch reach advantage. Price has more knockout power, dropping opponents 0.44 times per 15 minutes. He lands 3.1 more significant strikes per minute, but also absorbs 3.88 more. Chiesa will have a significant grappling edge, finishing 2.07 more takedowns per 15 minutes, but only 0.35 more submissions.
Chiesa is a massive -750 favorite, and it’s not unwarranted. I don’t think any MMA fight should feature such lopsided odds, but I don’t see how Price wins this. To make this more enticing, we’ll look for Chiesa to find a submission.
💰 Best Bet: Michael Chiesa by Submission (-115)
UFC Fight Night: Alexa Grasso vs. Maycee Barber
No.3-ranked women’s flyweight Alexa Grasso will take on No. 5-ranked Maycee Barber. Grasso o-2-1 over her last three, but two were for the UFC Women’s Flyweight Championship, and she had a five-fight win streak before that. Barber is riding a seven-fight win streak, beating Karine Silva her last time out.
Both women are five-foot-five-inches, but Grasso has a one-inch reach advantage. Neither has much power, and land just over four significant strikes per minute. However, Grasso absorbs 0.97 more per minute. Barber finishes 1.17 more takedowns per 15 minutes, but Grasso averages 0.52 more submissions.
This fight looks like a toss-up, so I’m going to lean on the experience and take the plus odds of Grasso.
💰 Best Bet: Alexa Grasso to win (+146)
UFC Fight Night: Israel Adesanya vs. Joe Pyfer
- Odds to Win: Adesanya -150 | Pyfer +122
- How Will Fight End: KO/TKO +115 | Submission +500 | Decision +110
- Will the fight go the Distance? Yes +116 | No -148
Former champion Israel Adesanya takes on rising middleweight Joe Pyfer. Adesanya is 1-4 over his last five and is on a three-fight losing skid. Pyfer is riding a three-fight win streak, beating Abusupiyan Magomedov by submission last time out.
Adesanya is two inches taller and has a five-inch reach advantage. Pyfer has more one-punch power, dropping opponents 1.23 times per 15 minutes. Adesanya lands 0.55 more significant strikes per minute, and the two absorb a similar amount. Pyfer will have the grappling edge, landing 1.23 takedowns and 1.02 submissions per 15 minutes.
Adesanya is seven years older at 36 and has noticeably slowed down. He is an accurate and cerebral striker, but his lack of power could cause issues against someone with Pyfer’s stopping power. Adesanya could be gassed, but he could have enough left to get the decision. However, I think Pyfer could come out aggressively and land a big shot.
💰 Best Bet: Joe Pyfer by KO/TKO (+300)
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