UFC Fight Night: Evloev vs. Murphy | UFC Picks Today, Best Bets
Tyler Mason
Host · Writer
A UFC Featherweight title fight headlines UFC Fight Night 270 as No. 1-ranked Movsar Evloev takes on No. 3-ranked Lerone Murphy.
- Arena: The O2 Arena
- Location: London, England
- Where to Watch: Paramount+
- Date: March 21, 2026
- Time: 4:00 p.m. ET
UFC Fight Night: Michael Page vs. Sam Patterson
No. 13- ranked welterweight Michael “Venom" Page takes on Sam “The Future" Patterson. Page is riding a two-fight win streak and has won four of his previous five. Patterson has won four in a row and has only two losses on his record.
Both men are six-foot-three, but Page has a one-inch reach advantage. Despite Page’s highlight reel of knockouts, Patterson statistically has more one-shot power, dropping opponents 0.46 more times per 15 minutes. Patterson lands 1.5 more significant strikes per minute, but also absorbs 2.25 more. Patterson also has the grappling advantage, finishing with 1.39 takedowns per 15 minutes, while Page’s takedown defense rate is 16 percent.
Page is almost 39, but he hasn’t shown the slowdown you might expect at his age. He’s also improved his takedown defense despite the statistics. The age gap and grappling edge make it tempting to take Patterson. However, I have to go with the old dog to pull off another win.
💰 Best Bet: Page to win (-178)
UFC Fight Night: Luke Riley vs. Michael Aswell
Unranked featherweights Luke Riley and Michael Aswell will duke it out. Riley is undefeated at 12-0, winning by knockout in his UFC debut. Aswell is 11-3, going 1-1 in his first two UFC fights.
Riley is one inch taller, but both men have a 69-inch reach. Riley has significant knockdown power, dropping opponents 2.73 times per 15 minutes. However, Aswell lands a staggering 9.56 significant strikes per minute. He also absorbs 7.79 significant strikes over the same period. Neither fight has any takedown statistics, so this one is shaping up to be a slugfest.
It looks like Aswell will be the more aggressive of the two, but Riley packs some serious power. It could come down to whether Aswell can overwhelm Riley or if the Brit can land a big shot.
💰 Best Bet: Luke Riley by KO/TKO (+250)
UFC Fight Night: Movsar Evloev vs. Lerone Murphy
- Odds to Win: Evloev -500 | Murphy +340
- How Will Fight End: KO/TKO +500 | Submission +700 | Decision -360
- Will the fight go the Distance? Yes -370 | No +260
Someone’s 0 has got to go. Movsar Evloev and Lerone Murphy put their undefeated records on the line. Evloev is 19-0, winning nine straight in the UFC with his last being over former bantamweight champion Aljamain Sterling. Murphy is 8-0-1, winning nine straight with his last being a knockout of Aaron Pico.
Murphy is two inches taller, and he has a one-inch reach advantage. Murphy has the power advantage, dropping opponents 0.33 times per 15 minutes to Evloev’s 0.00. Murphy also lands 0.49 more significant strikes per minute, while they absorb a similar amount. However, Evloev should have a significant grappling edge, finishing with 3.26 more takedowns per 15 minutes, while Murphy’s takedown defense is 54 percent. Murphy is slightly more of a submission threat, but it’s insignificant.
Evloev is a pretty big favorite, and Murphy is approaching 35 in a lighter division. Evloev has won every UFC fight by decision, so I think that’s a safe way to bolster our odds.
💰 Best Bet: Movsar Evloev by Points (-115)
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