Spain 2026 World Cup Win Probability

The market for Spain remains stable, with the squad priced as a primary tier-one contender. We are seeing a gap in their implied probability on Kalshi (19%) compared to Polymarket (16%). It's enough of a difference to have them priced as the clear favorite on Kalshi, whereas Polymarket shows a much tighter race with England and France. This 3% spread represents a decent-sized arbitrage opportunity for those tracking diverging platform sentiments: a $100 position on Spain currently yields a $498 payout on Polymarket, compared to just $525 on Kalshi.

Key Squad Availability & Impact

• Pedri (Midfield) | Status: Sidelined (Hamstring)
  • Latest: Confirmed January 22, 2026, following a Champions League exit against Slavia Prague.
  • Injury: Grade 1 tear in the right biceps femoris (hamstring).
  • Timeline: Expected recovery is 4 weeks, likely returning in late February.
  • Market Influence: This is his third muscular setback of the 2025/26 season. While the 4-week layoff is relatively short, his “fragility profile” is likely preventing Spain’s odds from shortening further, as his availability is essential for Spain’s ball-retention metrics.
• Lamine Yamal (Winger) | Load Management
  • Latest: Returning to full fitness following a late-2025 groin procedure.
  • Status: Currently being eased back into the rotation to avoid a recurrence of pubic bone inflammation.
  • Market Influence: Analysts view Yamal as Spain’s “X-factor”. His successful return to high-intensity minutes will be a primary catalyst for any positive movement in Spain’s tournament projection.