Men’s Olympic Semifinal Preview: Canada vs Finland Best Bets

Team Canada pulled off one of the most dramatic comebacks at the 2026 Milan-Cortina Olympic Games. Down a goal with minutes left to play, they recorded a miracle tip-in before closing down Czechia in overtime. Finland had a similar outcome, needing overtime to get past the defensive powerhouse Swiss. Those waves collide in the semifinals, in what’s sure to be a highly contested affair.

Check out our best bets for this pivotal semifinal matchup!

Grant White is a Senior NHL Analyst specializing in data-driven betting strategies. With a focus on advanced analytics, Grant blends years of hockey expertise with a rigorous model-based approach to identify high-value edges. 

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Best Bet: Canada -430

Where to Watch (#4) Finland vs (#1) Canada

• Arena: Milano Santagiulia IHO Arena
• Location: Milan
• Where to Watch: ESPN+
• Date: February 20, 2026
• Time: 8:40 a.m. ET

FIN vs CAN Betting Odds & Team Comparison

FIN vs CAN Win Probability & Prediction Market Trends

Source: Kalshi Prediction Exchange

The Finns and Canadians have both looked strong throughout the Men’s Hockey Tournament, but both were hanging on by a thread in the quarterfinals. While both teams were victorious in their respective matchups, Canada has a clear analytics advantage that it can wield in the semis. 

It’s not reflected in the result, but Canada dictated the pace versus Czechia. They outshot their opponents 41-24, spending most of the time in the attacking zone. It took a power-play tally and a goal with six men on the ice for Czechia to stay close, but the result didn’t reflect the one-sided affair. Granted, the Canadians can’t afford any more sloppy turnovers, but we expect head coach Jon Cooper to right the ship ahead of the semifinals. 

Finland’s effort versus Switzerland was much less decisive. The Swiss built a two-goal lead early, before relenting in the waning moments. The Finns tallied two goals with less than seven minutes to play, before completing the comeback with an overtime winner. Scoring has been an issue for the Finns. Other than an 11-goal outburst versus a deflated Italian side, this team has struggled to find the back of the net. Their prospects of improving their scoring woes don’t look good versus a stout Canadian side. 

The winner of this semifinal matchup will be determined by which team can make the most of their scoring opportunities. In that regard, the Canadians have a decided advantage. We’re backing Canada to continue its march to the Gold Medal Game with a convincing win. 

Note: All odds are subject to change after article publication. Get the most up-to-date odds here.

Best Bet: Connor McDavid to Record 3+ Points +260

The loss of Sidney Crosby will have a profound impact on Canada’s morale. Thankfully, they have several leaders in the dressing room who should offset Crosby’s potential absence. Connor McDavid is the natural candidate to step up. Given his recent performances, we expect him to respond with another game-changing effort. 

Already, McDavid is on a historic pace. Through the first four games of the tournament, McDavid has recorded 11 points, reaching three points in all but one of those contests. Predictably, this correlates with elite production, as McDavid has recorded multiple shots in every contest, including seven versus Czechia. 

Finland plays with a defensive edge, but we saw them cede ground to weaker teams than Canada. They gave up four goals to Slovakia earlier in the tournament, and were outshot 35-24 versus Sweden. They won’t be able to contain Canada’s offense in the semis, and Connor McDavid will lead the charge. 

Canada needs McDavid now more than ever, and we expect him to deliver another victory for Canada. He’s a chalky favorite to record multiple points and as an anytime goal scorer. We’re betting he has another three-point performance up his sleeve, making that our preferred wager in this one.

Men’s Olympic Semifinal Preview: Canada vs Finland Best Bets

• Canada -430
• Connor McDavid to Record 3+ Points +260

Canada entered the knockout round as the top seed, and they should live up to that reputation in the semifinals. We’re taking them to defeat Finland, with Connor McDavid leading the effort with another three-point performance.

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