NHL Best Bets Today: Expert March 27 Picks & Tonight’s Top Value
Grant White
Host · Writer
The NHL Trade Deadline is in the rearview mirror, and only a few weeks separate us from the playoffs! There are still plenty of teams in contention, meaning most of the games from here on out will have some postseason implications. We’re here for all of the drama and nightly action, offering our top betting picks for tonight’s offerings.
Grant White is a Senior NHL Analyst specializing in data-driven betting strategies. With a focus on advanced analytics, Grant blends years of hockey expertise with a rigorous model-based approach to identify high-value edges.
Check out our NHL best bets for March 27!
Where to Watch Chicago Blackhawks vs New York Rangers
- Stadium: Madison Square Garden
- Location: New York, NY
- Where to Watch: ESPN+
- Time: 7:00 p.m. ET
Chicago Blackhawks vs New York Rangers Betting Odds
- Spread: CHI +1.5 (-180) | NYR -1.5 (+150)
- Total: Over 5.5 (-135) | Under (+115)
- Moneyline: CHI +140 | NYR -155
Chicago Blackhawks vs New York Rangers Kalshi Odds
- Chance: CHI 40% | NYR 59%
- Spread: NYR -1.5 Yes 38¢ | No 63¢
- Total: Over 5.5 Yes 56¢ | No 46¢
Note: All odds are subject to change after article publication. Get the most up-to-date odds here.
There are limited viewing options on the NHL’s Friday night docket. Even though the playoffs are out of the question, there will be some magic on the ice at Madison Square Garden when these two Original Six franchises face off. Analytically, both teams are hanging on by a string, but the Chicago Blackhawks are in a much worse spot than the New York Rangers.
The Connor Bedard era in Chicago is off to a rocky start. In three seasons with the young phenom, the Hawks are an atrocious 75-131-20. Sadly, their 27 wins this season are the most they’ve had over that stretch. Things look even worse when we factor in their recent on-ice metrics. The Blackhawks are getting absolutely pummeled on a nightly basis, outplaying just one of their last eight opponents.
Still, the picture is bleaker than you think. Chicago has an abysmal 34.0% expected goals-for rating and is getting decimated at both ends of the ice. They’ve given up 127 high-danger and 251 scoring chances across the eight-game sample, including a mind-numbing 52 and 96, respectively, over the last two games. To put that in perspective, we typically sound the alarm when teams give up 12 or more, not 26.
Those defensive issues will be exacerbated by a Rangers squad due for an offensive outbreak. New York has tragically underperformed relative to its production metrics, and put up 30 scoring and 12 high-danger chances last time out. With room to grow offensively, we predict a massive swing versus Chicago.
The betting line should continue to move in the Rangers’ favor throughout the day. We’re buying early, backing New York to cruise to victory at home.
Best Bet: Rangers -155
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Where to Watch Detroit Red Wings vs Buffalo Sabres
- Stadium: KeyBank Center
- Location: Buffalo, NY
- Where to Watch: ESPN+
- Time: 7:00 p.m. ET
Detroit Red Wings vs Buffalo Sabres Betting Odds
- Spread: DET +1.5 (-190) | BUF -1.5 (+160)
- Total: Over 5.5 (-135) | Under (+115)
- Moneyline: DET +135 | BUF -155
Detroit Red Wings vs Buffalo Sabres Kalshi Odds
- Chance: DET 41% | BUF 60%
- Spread: BUF -1.5 Yes 38¢ | No 63¢
- Total: Over 6.5 Yes 45¢ | No 56¢
The air is deflating out of the Buffalo Sabres’ tires, and they are at risk of bottoming out at the wrong time of year. The Atlantic Division leaders take on a desperate Detroit Red Wings squad on Friday night, and we don’t think it will end well for the Sabres.
Buffalo built a ton of momentum on its four-game Western Conference road trip, but overperformed relative to its underlying metrics. The Sabres were outplayed in all four games, a trend that persisted in their return to Western New York on Wednesday night. Across the five-game sample, they produced a lackluster 46.6% expected goals-for rating and vastly overachieved with an actual mark of 70.0%. Clearly, regression is looming.
The Red Wings have ceded ground in the Eastern Conference playoff race, but it hasn’t been from lack of effort. Detroit has outplayed five of its previous nine opponents, eclipsing 10 high-danger opportunities in all but four of those games. At the same time, we’ve seen improved efficiency in their defensive end, with the Wings holding four of their last five opponents to nine or fewer quality chances. Altogether, that leaves them with a 54.0% high-danger chance rating over that stretch.
Detroit wields an analytics advantage on Friday night. We expect the Red Wings to ride that to victory, kickstarting the Sabres’ regression.
Best Bet: Red Wings +135
NHL Daily Betting Guide: Best Bets for March 27, 2026
- Rangers -155
- Red Wings +135
We’re closing out the week with a light two-game slate. Nevertheless, we got action in both contests. We’re backing the Rangers as undervalued home chalk and the Red Wings as undeserving underdogs.
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