NHL · 2 hours ago

NHL Best Bets Today: Expert March 17 Picks & Tonight’s Top Value

Grant White

Host · Writer

The NHL Trade Deadline is in the rearview mirror, and only a few weeks separate us from the playoffs! There are still plenty of teams in contention, meaning most of the games from here on out will have some postseason implications. We’re here for all of the drama and nightly action, offering our top betting picks for tonight’s offerings.

Grant White is a Senior NHL Analyst specializing in data-driven betting strategies. With a focus on advanced analytics, Grant blends years of hockey expertise with a rigorous model-based approach to identify high-value edges.

Check out our NHL best bets for March 13!

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Where to Watch New York Islanders vs Toronto Maple Leafs

Stadium: Scotiabank Arena
Location: Toronto, ON
Where to Watch: ESPN+, Sportsnet+
Time: 7:00 p.m. ET

New York Islanders vs Toronto Maple Leafs Betting Odds

Spread: NYI -1.5 (+170) | TOR +1.5 (-215)
Total: Over 5.5 (-135) | Under (+115)
Moneyline: NYI -140 | TOR +120

New York Islanders vs Toronto Maple Leafs Kalshi Odds

Chance: NYI 58% | TOR 44%
Spread: NYI -1.5 Yes 34¢ | No 68¢
Total: Over 5.5 Yes 56¢ | No 46¢

Note: All odds are subject to change after article publication. Get the most up-to-date odds here.

The Toronto Maple Leafs put forth a valiant effort without their captain, Auston Matthews, last time out. Still, they overachieved by a substantive margin and can’t continue to punch above their weight class. That leaves a bettor-friendly advantage in backing the New York Islanders on St. Patrick’s Day.

The Leafs’ metrics have been abysmal. The Atlantic Division basement dwellers have been outplayed in five straight, looking particularly pathetic over their last three. Across that more recent stretch, Toronto has compiled a 32.5% expected goals-for rating. Moreover, they haven’t eclipsed 34.9% in any one of those contests.

The Islanders are trending much more positively. New York has outplayed its opponents in three straight, yielding a robust 60.3% eGF rating. With an actual goals-for rating of 38.4% across the three-game sample, we’re anticipating some more fruitful outcomes for the Islanders in the short term.

We’re using this spot to back the favored Islanders. Toronto has all but given up on the season, and New York is trying to fend off challengers in the Metropolitan Division and wild-card playoff races. The Isles cruise to victory.

Best Bet: Islanders -140

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Where to Watch Boston Bruins vs Montreal Canadiens

Stadium: Bell Centre
Location: Montreal, QC
Where to Watch: ESPN+, Sportsnet+
Time: 7:00 p.m. ET

Boston Bruins vs Montreal Canadiens Betting Odds

Spread: BOS +1.5 (-180) | MTL -1.5 (+150)
Total: Over 6.5 (+100) | Under (-120)
Moneyline: BOS +140 | MTL -165

Boston Bruins vs Montreal Canadiens Kalshi Odds

Chance: BOS 41% | MTL 61%
Spread: MTL -1.5 Yes 39¢ | No 63¢
Total: Over 6.5 Yes 49¢ | No 52¢

Few things rival the intensity of an Original Six matchup. The Montreal Canadiens renew their heated rivalry with the Boston Bruins on Tuesday night, looking to bolster their position in the Atlantic Division standings. We like the Habs’ chances of leaving with the win.

Boston’s recent on-ice performances have been underwhelming. The B’s have fallen below eight high-danger chances in three of their last four, outchancing their opponents in just two of those contests. Counterintuitively, they’ve seen an increase in scoring, rallying six goals over their last two. That imbalance points toward inevitable correction, with goals being harder to come by over the coming weeks.

The Canadiens head into tonight’s contest on a sturdier analytics footing. The playoff hopefuls have eclipsed 11 high-danger chances in three of their previous five, corresponding with sustained output. Over that stretch, the Habs have tallied 15 goals, with all but three of those coming at five-on-five. Considering the Bruins have given up four or more goals in three of their last five, Montreal is in a good position to continue its scoring prowess.

The Bell Centre is an unforgiving venue, and the Habs’ offense is rolling. We’re betting that the Bruins don’t have an answer for Montreal’s scoring, and the Canadiens strengthen their grip on a playoff spot.

Best Bet: Canadiens -165

Where to Watch Buffalo Sabres vs Vegas Golden Knights

Stadium: T-Mobile Arena
Location: Las Vegas, NV
Where to Watch: ESPN+
Time: 7:00 p.m. ET

Buffalo Sabres vs Vegas Golden Knights Betting Odds

Spread: BUF +1.5 (-235) | VGK -1.5 (+180)
Total: Over 6.5 (-110) | Under (-110)
Moneyline: BUF +110 | VGK -130

Buffalo Sabres vs Vegas Golden Knights Kalshi Odds

Chance: BUF 48% | VGK 54%
Spread: VGK -1.5 Yes 34¢ | No 69¢
Total: Over 6.5 Yes 51¢ | No 50¢

At the start of December, even the Buffalo Sabres doubted their chances of making the playoffs. Here we are, a few months later, and the Sabres control their own destiny in the Atlantic Division. Buffalo will be put to the test as it puts its recent 9-1-0 record to the test versus the Vegas Golden Knights.

Buffalo’s run of elite play has been spurred by unstoppable play in both ends of the ice. The Sabres have tallied 18 goals over their last four contests, while giving up just six goals over their past three. Rooted in elite analytics, we have confidence that the Atlantic Division leaders can extend their success in Sin City.

While the Knights have won two straight, we’ve seen them succumb to their own offensive deficiencies in recent weeks. Vegas has seen decreased scoring over its recent schedule, recording two or fewer goals at five-on-five in three of five. With their PDO still above 1.000, that unflattering streak could continue over the coming games.

The Sabres are the superior analytics team, and their recent play is vastly better than what we’re seeing from Vegas. Buffalo is an undeserving underdog, and we’re backing them at plus-money.