NHL Best Bets Today: Expert March 16 Picks & Tonight’s Top Value
Grant White
Host · Writer
The NHL Trade Deadline is in the rearview mirror, and only a few weeks separate us from the playoffs! There are still plenty of teams in contention, meaning most of the games from here on out will have some postseason implications. We’re here for all of the drama and nightly action, offering our top betting picks for tonight’s offerings.
Grant White is a Senior NHL Analyst specializing in data-driven betting strategies. With a focus on advanced analytics, Grant blends years of hockey expertise with a rigorous model-based approach to identify high-value edges.
Check out our NHL best bets for March 13!
Where to Watch Pittsburgh Penguins vs Colorado Avalanche
- Stadium: Ball Arena
- Location: Colorado, CO
- Where to Watch: ESPN+
- Time: 9:30 p.m. ET
Pittsburgh Penguins vs Colorado Avalanche Betting Odds
- Spread: PIT +1.5 (-125) | COL -1.5 (+105)
- Total: Over 6.5 (-120) | Under (+100)
- Moneyline: PIT +190 | COL -225
Pittsburgh Penguins vs Colorado Avalanche Kalshi Odds
- Chance: PIT 34% | COL 67%
- Spread: COL -1.5 Yes 47¢ | No 55¢
- Total: Over 6.5 Yes 53¢ | No 48¢
Note: All odds are subject to change after article publication. Get the most up-to-date odds here.
The Pittsburgh Penguins are in the middle of a five-game road trip that begins and ends in Carolina. Now three games into the trip, the Pens are off to a respectable 1-1-1 start. Still, they face their toughest challenge yet when they take on the Colorado Avalanche on Monday. The betting market has written the Penguins off, but they should give the Avs more than they can handle.
Pittsburgh’s offense is operating at peak efficiency. Over their last five games, the Penguins have tallied 18 goals, with 10 of those coming at five-on-five. More importantly, that output is grounded in elite production. The playoff hopefuls are averaging 10.2 high-danger chances per game across that stretch, eclipsing 10 in three of five. Likewise, they’re up to 24.2 scoring chances per game, reaching 24 in all but two of those outings.
At the same time, Colorado has iced a diminishing product. The Avs are down to 8.6 quality chances over their last five, recording five or fewer opportunities in two of those contests. Predictably, that correlates with decreased output, with the Avalanche scoring two or fewer goals at five-on-five in all but one of those games.
The Avs will inevitably see an increase in production and scoring, but that boost is unlikely to come against a Pens side that has given up just 13 quality chances over its last two. At the current price, the betting advantage lies in backing the visitors. ,
Best Bet: Penguins +190
Deke the sportsbooks and score with SportsGrid’s free NHL Picks and NHL Player Props.
Where to Watch Los Angeles Kings vs New York Rangers
- Stadium: Madison Square Garden
- Location: New York, NY
- Where to Watch: ESPN+
- Time: 7:00 p.m. ET
Los Angeles Kings vs New York Rangers Betting Odds
- Spread: LAK -1.5 (+200) | NYR +1.5 (-275)
- Total: Over 5.5 (-125) | Under (+105)
- Moneyline: LAK -115 | NYR -105
Los Angeles Kings vs New York Rangers Kalshi Odds
- Chance: LAK 52% | NYR 49%
- Spread: LAK -1.5 Yes 30¢ | No 71¢
- Total: Over 5.5 Yes 54¢ | No 47¢
The Los Angeles Kings are another team that’s deep into a road trip, playing their fifth and final away game on Monday night. However, this inter-conference showdown versus the New York Rangers features an extra layer of intrigue. Days before the Olympic roster freeze, the Rangers traded Artemi Panarin to the Kings. The Breadman makes his triumphant return to Manhattan, where he’ll receive a less-than-welcome reception. Still, we predict Panarin and the Kings leave with the last laugh.
LA has been playing exceptional hockey of late. The Kings have outplayed their opponents in four of six, a stretch that includes only three wins. Across that sample, they’ve eclipsed 11 high-danger opportunities in all but one of those contests, while outchancing their opponents each time out. Naturally, we’re betting that trend continues against a Rangers team that ranks among the worst in the league.
New York’s struggles this season are well-documented. Sitting last in the Eastern Conference, the Rangers’ lackluster efforts are also captured in their underlying metrics. The Metropolitan Division basement dwellers have been outplayed in five of six, compiling a 46.6% expected goals-for rating over that stretch. Moreover, they’ve given up 23 high-danger chances over their last two, with both opponents reaching double-digits.
The Rangers’ defensive miscues will come back to haunt them against their former offensive star. We’re betting the Kings have no problem running up the score at Madison Square Garden.
Best Bet: Kings -115
Where to Watch Calgary Flames vs Detroit Red Wings
- Stadium: Little Caesars Arena
- Location: Detroit, MI
- Where to Watch: ESPN+, Sportsnet+
- Time: 7:00 p.m. ET
Calgary Flames vs Detroit Red Wings Betting Odds
- Spread: CGY +1.5 (-165) | DET -1.5 (+140)
- Total: Over 5.5 (-125) | Under (+105)
- Moneyline: CGY +150 | DET -175
Calgary Flames vs Detroit Red Wings Kalshi Odds
- Chance: CGY 38% | DET 63%
- Spread: DET -1.5 Yes 41¢ | No 61¢
- Total: Over 5.5 Yes 53¢ | No 48¢
Curiously, the Calgary Flames have seemingly gotten better after they moved on from some of their top players at the deadline. While they are walking an unsustainable path, we predict they have at least one more offensive outburst on tap when they take on the Detroit Red Wings in the Motor City.
The Flames’ offense is scorching hot right now. With 15 goals over their previous five contests, the Flames are getting production and scoring from across their lineup. Still, that has come at the expense of their defensive integrity. Four of those five opponents have recorded four or more goals, with Calgary allowing a whopping 22 goals over the five-game sample. Both of those trends should continue against the Red Wings.
The Red Wings have been playing an equally irresponsible brand of hockey in their own end. Four of their past eight opponents have recorded at least 13 high-danger chances, with the Wings outchancing their foes on just three occasions. However, we have seen them turn a corner in their offensive performance, reaching 11 or more quality opportunities in three of their previous five games.
The Flames and Red Wings will trade chances all night. Given their offensive proficiency and carefree defensive play, this will inevitably lead to a high-scoring affair at Little Caesars Arena. The sharpest bettors will want to get a piece of the over in Detroit.
Best Bet: CGY-DET Over 5.5 -125
NHL Daily Betting Guide: Best Bets for March 16, 2026
- Penguins +190
- Kings -115
- CGY-DET Over 5.5 -125
We’re kicking off the week with three Monday night plays. We’ve got the Penguins and Kings on the moneyline, adding the over between the Flames and Red Wings.
Stay ahead of the game and elevate your sports betting experience with SportsGrid.
