Predicting the 2026 Super Bowl: Kalshi’s 4 Most Likely Matchups

Super Bowl LX: The Road to Levi’s Stadium

As the NFL playoffs reach their pinnacle, only four teams remain in the hunt for the Lombardi Trophy at Levi’s Stadium on February 8, 2026. The upcoming AFC and NFC Championship Games will determine which two powerhouses emerge to face off in Super Bowl LX. Currently, prediction markets lean toward a showdown between the Seattle Seahawks and the New England Patriots, reflecting high-octane performance from their young stars and veteran leaders.

With the Denver Broncos adjusting to life after a season-ending injury to Bo Nix and the Los Angeles Rams looking to recapture championship magic under Matthew Stafford, the final matchups are far from settled. This article breaks down the most likely Super Bowl LX matchups based on real-time Kalshi data, exploring narratives, efficiency metrics, and the market shifts driving these projections.

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1. New England Patriots and Seattle Seahawks (41% Chance)

Market Brief

The Kalshi prediction market currently identifies the New England Patriots and Seattle Seahawks as the most likely Super Bowl LX matchup, with a dominant 41% probability. This pairing has seen a massive surge in conviction, jumping 27% recently as both teams solidified their status as conference favorites. Market sentiment reflects a “collision of titans," with the Patriots and Seahawks established as frontrunners to advance from Championship Sunday.

What’s Driving the Odds

• Conference Frontrunners: Both the Patriots and Seahawks are favored in their respective AFC and NFC Championship games, making this the “chalk" projection.

• Defensive Prowess: Seattle’s “Dark Side" defense, which has dominated opponents since 2025, is widely regarded by bettors as the most complete unit in the NFL.

• The Maye vs. Darnold Narrative: A matchup between AFC standout Drake Maye and NFC favorite Sam Darnold is a primary storyline driving high-volume trading on this outcome.

2. New England Patriots and Los Angeles Rams (30% Chance)

Market Brief

The potential for a New England Patriots and Los Angeles Rams showdown sits at a 30% probability, representing a significant 18% increase in market confidence. While the Rams are road underdogs in the NFC, their status as dangerous playoff veterans under Sean McVay keeps this matchup at a high premium. This scenario is currently the second most liquid market on Kalshi, reflecting bettors’ belief in Matthew Stafford‘s championship pedigree.

What’s Driving the Odds

• Stafford’s Elite Form: MVP finalist Matthew Stafford is playing arguably the best ball of his career, making the Rams a popular “upset" pick to take down Seattle.

• Super Bowl Rematch Narrative: A Patriots-Rams matchup would be a historic rematch of Super Bowl LIII, a narrative that often drives higher retail trading volume.

• Offensive Firepower: This matchup would feature league-leading offensive talent, including OPOY finalist Puka Nacua and veteran Stefon Diggs.

3. Denver Broncos and Seattle Seahawks (18% Chance)

Market Brief

The probability of a Denver Broncos and Seattle Seahawks matchup currently holds at 18%, but this market is in a state of recalibration. Following a season-ending injury to Broncos QB Bo Nix, this pairing has become more volatile. While Seattle remains a stable half of the equation, Denver’s chances of emerging from the AFC have dampened, causing this matchup’s probability to trail the top two scenarios significantly.

What’s Driving the Odds

• Injury Impact: The market is reacting heavily to the loss of Bo Nix, with Denver’s championship hopes shifting as they transition to the AFC Championship gauntlet.

• NFC West Dominance: The Seahawks’ firm grip on the NFC favorite spot keeps this matchup’s floor higher than other Denver-related pairings.

• Heavy Underdog Status: If this matchup occurs, Denver would likely open as a significant underdog, a factor already being priced into current prediction contracts.

4. Denver Broncos and Los Angeles Rams (13% Chance)

Market Brief

Sitting at 13%, the Denver Broncos and Los Angeles Rams matchup is currently viewed as the most unlikely scenario for Super Bowl LX. This pairing requires two major upsets on Championship Sunday: a Rams road win in Seattle and a Broncos victory over the top-seeded Patriots. Despite the low probability, this market has seen a minor 4% uptick as some contrarian traders look for high-value payouts on a “dual-upset" weekend.

What’s Driving the Odds

• Path of Resistance: This matchup faces the steepest statistical climb, needing both road underdogs to win their respective conference titles.

• Quarterback Dynamics: This scenario centers on veteran Matthew Stafford out-dueling Sam Darnold while the Broncos find a way to overcome the Patriots’ top-ranked defense.

• Volatility Play: The low probability attracts speculative traders betting on the unpredictable nature of postseason football.

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