NFL Playoffs: Wild Card Weekend Best Bets

Script writers couldn’t have penned a more dramatic conclusion to the 2025 NFL regular season. After 18 exhilarating weeks, the playoff bracket is set. We’re heading into the postseason armed with a full arsenal of betting data, looking to end the season on a high note.

That starts with Wild Card Weekend. Our best bets are already locked and loaded!

Where to Watch Houston Texans vs Pittsburgh Steelers

• Stadium: Acrisure Stadium
• Location: Pittsburgh, PA
• Where to Watch: ESPN
• Time: Monday 8:15 p.m. ET

Houston Texans vs Pittsburgh Steelers Betting Odds

• Spread: HOU -3.5 (+100) | PIT +3.5 (-120)
  
• Total: Over 39.5 (-105) | Under (-115)
• Moneyline: HOU -175 | PIT +150

Houston Texans vs Pittsburgh Steelers Kalshi Odds

• Chance: HOU 62% | PIT 38%
• Spread: HOU -3.5 Yes 49¢ | No 53¢
• Total: Over 39.5 Yes 49¢ | No 54¢

Note: All odds are subject to change after article publication. Get the most up-to-date odds here.

The Pittsburgh Steelers were stunned following Chris Boswell’s missed point-after attempt. But the football gods had other plans for the eventual AFC North Champions, as Tyler Loop would go on to miss the game-winning field goal as time expired. Now, the Steelers suit up against the Houston Texans on Monday Night Football for a spot in the Divisional Round. 

As we saw in Week 18, Pittsburgh’s game plan relies heavily on structured defensive play. When they abandon their defensive responsibilities, things go askew. However, we’re not anticipating a resounding offensive performance from the Texans. Houston was one of the worst offensive teams in the league, averaging 5.1 yards per play, tied for the ninth-fewest in the league. More concerningly, that benchmark falls to 4.9 as the visitors, putting them at a sincere disadvantage in the hostile environment of Acrisure Stadium. 

Still, the Texans’ defense is a formidable unit. The AFC South runner-ups had the top-ranked total defense, limiting opponents to a paltry 298.8 yards per game. Predictably, this correlates with the second-ranked scoring unit, with Houston limiting its foes to just 17.4 points per game. Even with the return of DK Metcalf, the Steelers can’t be counted on to move the ball consistently at home. 

Bettors will want to target two wagers in this AFC clash. Defense will reign supreme in what’s sure to be a classic slugfest. Naturally, that points us toward the under and the Steelers +3.5 in what will inevitably be a defense-first affair. 

Best Bet: Under 39.5, Steelers +3.5

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Where to Watch Green Bay Packers vs Chicago Bears

• Stadium: Soldier Field
• Location: Chicago, IL
• Where to Watch: Prime Video
• Time: Saturday 8:00 p.m. ET

Green Bay Packers vs Chicago Bears Betting Odds

• Spread: GB +1.5 (-120) | CHI -1.5 (+100)
• Total: Over 46.5 (-110) | Under (-110)
• Moneyline: GB -105 | CHI -115

Green Bay Packers vs Chicago Bears Kalshi Odds

• Chance: GB 50% | CHI 50%
• Spread: CHI -2.5 Yes 46¢ | No 55¢
• Total: Over 46.5 Yes 49¢ | No 52¢

NFC North enthusiasts will be treated to a classic rivalry showdown in the Wild Card Round. The division-winning Chicago Bears host the Green Bay Packers in what should be one of the most entertaining contests of the weekend. The Bears are short favorites, but the Packers are drawing most of the betting action. Our betting allegiances lie with the Bears in this one. 

Green Bay stumbled to the finish line. Injuries were undoubtedly a factor, but that’s unlikely to improve on a short week. Most notably, the Packers lost Micah Parsons on defense and Tucker Kraft on offense, but there are numerous other impact players on the injury report. Parsons’ absence has been felt on the defensive side of the ball, as Green Bay has given up a whopping 392.3 yards per game since the All-Pro defensive stalwart went down with an ACL injury. That plays into Chicago’s strength as an offensive juggernaut. 

Granted, the Bears were held in check in Week 18. However, that has been the exception to an otherwise reliable rule. The NFC North champs finished with the sixth-ranked total and ninth-ranked scoring offense. Despite their recent setback, those benchmarks are both on the rise. Over their last four games, they are up to 26.8 points and 370.0 yards per game, above their season-long marks of 25.9 and 369.2. 

Without pressure on Caleb Williams, the Bears’ offense will exacerbate the Packers’ recent defensive woes. In the end, that is too big a hurdle to overcome. Bettors may want to set their sights on the over, but we like Chicago’s chances of covering the short spread at Soldier Field. 

Best Bet: Bears -1.5

Where to Watch Los Angeles Chargers vs New England Patriots

• Stadium: Gillette Stadium
• Location: Foxborough, MA
• Where to Watch: NBC
• Time: Sunday 8:00 p.m. ET

Los Angeles Chargers vs New England Patriots Betting Odds

• Spread: LAC +3.5 (-105) | NE -3.5 (-115)
• Total: Over 46.5 (-105) | Under (-115)
• Moneyline: NAVY -265 | CIN +215

Los Angeles Chargers vs New England Patriots Kalshi Odds

• Chance: LAC 36% | NE 64%
• Spread: NE -3.5 Yes 51¢ | No 50¢
• Total: Over 45.5 Yes 53¢ | No 48¢

You wouldn’t know it from the betting odds, but the New England Patriots were one of the most dominant teams in the NFL this season. The Los Angeles Chargers will be well-rested, but their AFC counterparts should outmatch them on Sunday. 

The Patriots operate efficiently on both sides of the football. They ranked in the top five in scoring and total offense. The emergence of TreVeyon Henderson has elevated the Pats’ offense. Combined with Drake Maye under center, this is one of the most dynamic offenses in the league. That could be an issue for the Chargers, who have posted deteriorating defensive metrics over the latter stages of the campaign. Over the last three weeks, opponents have combined for 314.0 yards per game, a substantive jump from their 285.2 average. 

Additionally, LA doesn’t possess the offensive firepower to keep pace with its Wild Card hosts. This team put up a below-average 21.6 points per game this season and saw a dramatic dip in production over the latter stages of the campaign. Now firing against one of the top defenses in the conference, we don’t expect the Chargers to break through at Gillette Stadium. 

The Chargers’ reputation as one of the worst playoff teams in history will persist. The upstart Patriots will continue to run roughshod offensively, and there’s nothing the Chargers can do to keep pace. New England escapes Wild Card Weekend with one of the more convincing wins. 

Best Bet: Patriots -3.5

NFL Playoffs: Wild Card Weekend Best Bets

• HOU-PIT Under 39.5
• Steelers +3.5
• Bears -1.5
• Patriots -3.5

We’re heading into Wild Card Weekend with four plays spread across three games. We’re taking the points in Pittsburgh, in what should be a low-scoring affair. Then backing the Bears and Patriots are short home chalk.

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