NFL · 10 hours ago

ESPN Reveals Projections for Top EDGE Prospects Ahead of 2026 NFL Draft

John Canady

Host · Writer

The Overrated EDGE Rusher: Zion Young, Missouri
Zion Young is a tougher projection compared to some of the other names in this group, with more questions than clear answers. There are flashes to work with, but he may need the right situation and patience to really find his footing early in his career.

SackSEER projection: 16.4 sacks through Year 5
Scouts Inc. ranking: 30
Similar historical prospects: Uchenna Nwosu, Andre Branch

"Young comes out as the most likely to disappoint of the potential first-round prospects. His collegiate sack production was middling, with only 6.5 sacks in his senior year and just five combined sacks in the three seasons before that. His 4.70-second 40 is also fairly average." - Schatz
ESPN Reveals Projections for Top EDGE Prospects Ahead of 2026 NFL Draft
With the draft approaching, ESPN’s Aaron Schatz provides a data-driven look at this edge rusher class through SackSEER projections. It offers insight into which prospects have the profile to translate into pass rushers at the next level and which carry more risk.
David Bailey, Texas Tech
David Bailey looks like the type of edge rusher teams bet on early, with a profile that checks just about every box. He plays with real burst off the edge and has a natural feel for getting home, giving him the kind of upside that can translate quickly on Sundays.

SackSEER projection: 26.6 sacks through Year 5
Scouts Inc. ranking: 7
Similar historical prospects: Khalil Mack, DeMarcus Ware

"Bailey led the FBS with 14.5 sacks last season, and he's clearly the SackSEER favorite for 2026. He's the only prospect in this year's draft who combines excellent collegiate sack production with outstanding workouts, with a 4.50-second 40-yard dash, a 35-inch vertical, and a 10-foot-9 broad jump." - Schatz
Keldric Faulk, Auburn
Keldric Faulk stands out immediately because of his size and how well he moves at that frame. He brings a physical presence, setting the edge, but there’s also more pass rush upside here than you’d expect for a player built like him.

SackSEER projection: 23.5 sacks through Year 5
Scouts Inc. ranking: 24
Similar historical prospects: Preston Smith, Everson Griffen

"Faulk is the heaviest edge rusher in this year's class at 278 pounds. A 35-inch vertical is impressive for a player carrying his weight, as was the 4.67-second 40 he ran at his pro day." - Schatz
T.J. Parker, Clemson
T.J. Parker is an interesting evaluation because the traits are easy to buy into, even if the production hasn’t always been steady. He flashes the kind of bend and closing ability that can make him dangerous if everything clicks at the next level.

SackSEER projection: 23.1 sacks through Year 5
Scouts Inc. ranking: 17
Similar historical prospects: Robert Quinn, Yetur Gross-Matos

"Not to directly compare Parker to the best defensive player in the NFL, but Myles Garrett is an example, as he went from 12.5 sacks as a sophomore to 8.5 as a junior. Jadeveon Clowney went from 13 sacks as a sophomore to only three as a junior." - Schatz
Arvell Reese, Ohio State
Arvell Reese feels like one of the higher ceiling defenders in the class with his athletic profile alone. When he’s playing downhill and attacking, you can see the kind of disruptive presence that teams look for in a modern edge.

SackSEER projection: 23.0 sacks through Year 5
Scouts Inc. ranking: 3
Similar historical prospects: Micah Parsons, Kamerion Wimbley

"Reese had 6.5 sacks last season but only 0.5 sacks as a sophomore in 2024. He did not do the vertical jump or broad jump at the combine, but his 4.46-second 40 was the fastest among the edge rushers." - Schatz
Akheem Mesidor, Miami
Akheem Mesidor brings a more experienced, polished approach compared to some of the younger prospects in this group. He wins with technique and timing, and there’s value in a player who already understands how to affect the quarterback.

SackSEER projection: 21.1 sacks through Year 5
Scouts Inc. ranking: 22
Similar historical prospects: Whitney Mercilus, Aldon Smith

"Mesidor had more sacks last season (12.5 compared with Bain's 9.5), but the SRAM (sack rate as modified) variable takes into account that Mesidor was in his sixth season of college eligibility while Bain was only in his third. Mesidor will be 25 on draft day, while Bain doesn't turn 22 until September." - Schatz
Rueben Bain Jr., Miami
Rueben Bain Jr. has the kind of natural pass-rushing instincts that stand out right away on tape. He plays with good leverage and knows how to win his matchups, giving him a strong foundation to build on at the next level.

SackSEER projection: 21.0 sacks through Year 5
Scouts Inc. ranking: 16
Similar historical prospects: Nick Bosa, Greg Rousseau

"There has been a lot of discussion of Bain's short arm length (30⅞ inches), but that's not something we incorporate into these projections." - Schatz
The Underrated EDGE Rusher: Malachi Lawrence, UCF
Malachi Lawrence feels like the type of prospect who could outperform expectations with the right development. The tools are there, especially as an athlete, and if it all comes together, he could end up being one of the better value picks in this class.

SackSEER projection: 18.5 sacks through Year 5
Scouts Inc. ranking: 78
Similar historical prospects: Joseph Ossai, Jamie Collins Sr.

"Lawrence didn't have great stats in college, with only seven sacks as a senior in 2025. But SackSEER likes him as a sleeper prospect because he was outstanding in his workouts, and thus scores very high on the explosion index. Lawrence ran a 4.52-second 40 with a 40-inch vertical and a 10-foot-10 broad jump." - Schatz
The Overrated EDGE Rusher: Zion Young, Missouri
Zion Young is a tougher projection compared to some of the other names in this group, with more questions than clear answers. There are flashes to work with, but he may need the right situation and patience to really find his footing early in his career.

SackSEER projection: 16.4 sacks through Year 5
Scouts Inc. ranking: 30
Similar historical prospects: Uchenna Nwosu, Andre Branch

"Young comes out as the most likely to disappoint of the potential first-round prospects. His collegiate sack production was middling, with only 6.5 sacks in his senior year and just five combined sacks in the three seasons before that. His 4.70-second 40 is also fairly average." - Schatz
ESPN Reveals Projections for Top EDGE Prospects Ahead of 2026 NFL Draft
With the draft approaching, ESPN’s Aaron Schatz provides a data-driven look at this edge rusher class through SackSEER projections. It offers insight into which prospects have the profile to translate into pass rushers at the next level and which carry more risk.

ESPN Reveals Projections for Top EDGE Prospects Ahead of 2026 NFL Draft

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