Texas vs. Florida Odds, Preview & Jadan Baugh's Prop Line

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Florida Faces Questions Against Texas After Stunning South Carolina Loss

Texas enters its matchup with Florida as an 11.5-point favorite, with both teams trying to respond to disappointing losses. Florida fell 38-19 to South Carolina as a double-digit favorite, while Texas lost a game to Oklahoma that it could have won.

Florida’s loss was particularly stunning because the team had appeared to be in a strong bounce-back spot after losing at Missouri. Instead, the Gators played poorly in every phase of the game against South Carolina. The talent remains, but that performance made it difficult to trust Florida heading into this matchup.

Texas has also been difficult to back. The Longhorns were outplayed by Ohio State despite winning, and Arch Manning has not shown much. Florida ranks 115th nationally in pass defense, but its run defense has been better and could potentially slow the Texas rushing attack.

Florida’s offense faces a top-10 Texas defense that allowed Oklahoma to score 27 points. Aaron Fio is also considered unlikely to play, which could leave Florida operating a different type of offense. There is no official word on whether Fio or Tremel Jones will start, though the expectation appears to be Jones.

That uncertainty raises questions about whether the current spread reflects Jones starting. Florida could become tempting if the line reaches two touchdowns, especially because Texas has not consistently blown out talented opponents with Sark and Manning.

The preferred wager is Jaden Baugh to rush for more than 80 yards at +106. After recording at least 136 rushing yards in each of the first four games, Baugh has totaled only 72 yards on 27 carries over the past two games.

Missouri focused on stopping Baugh and forcing Fio to win through the air. Against South Carolina, the game got away from Florida early in the second half. In both cases, the game script limited the rushing attack because Florida was trying to overcome a large deficit.

If Florida can keep the game close, Baugh should receive enough work to clear 80 rushing yards. The key will be whether Florida’s secondary can contain Manning and the Texas offense. In a competitive game, Baugh has a strong chance to produce a performance closer to his early-season totals.