NCAAF · 7 hours ago

Phil Steele’s Top 12 College Football Surprise Teams Ahead of Week 10

Sammy Jacobs

Host · Writer

12. TCU Horned Frogs
TCU Team Profile
- Conference: Big 12
- Head Coach: Sonny Dykes (5th Season)
- Offensive Coordinator: Gordon Sammis
- Defensive Coordinator: Andy Avalos
- 2026 Record: 4-4 (2-3)
- Location: Fort Worth, Texas
Week 10 Opponent: Arizona

"I like QB Jaden Craig who transfers in from Harvard and he could have them cutting down on the turnovers and the schedule sets up well for a possible return to the playoffs." - Phil Steele

TCU needs to avoid the 'Dublin Curse' and the season finale at Texas Tech could be a de-facto playoff game, but the path is there.
Phil Steele's Top Surprise Teams
Phil Steele's summer preview magazine annually lists the teams he believes will surprise people in the upcoming football season. He thinks there are 12 teams people should keep an eye on.

Note: The following are Phil Steele's preseason predictions.
1. Alabama Crimson Tide
Alabama Team Profile
- Conference: SEC
- Head Coach: Kalen DeBoer (3rd Season)
- Offensive Coordinator: Ryan Grubb
- Defensive Coordinator: Kane Wommack
- 2026 Record: 6-2 (4-2)
- Location: Tuscaloosa, Alabama
Week 10 Opponent: LSU

"Coach (Kalen) DeBoer took a less talented team to the National title game with Washington and just got a contract extension so the team should be bought in." - Phil Steele

It's a sign of the times to have mighty Alabama as a team to surprise, but the Crimson Tide were smashed by the Indiana Hoosiers in the Rose Bowl. They need to figure out the quarterback position, but Alabama may not drop off the way people think they have.
2. BYU Cougars
BYU Cougars Team Profile
- Conference: Big 12
- Head Coach: Kalani Sitake (11th Season)
- Offensive Coordinator: Aaron Roderick
- Defensive Coordinator: Kelly Poppinga
- 2026 Record: 7-1 (4-1)
- Location: Provo, Utah
Week 10 Opponent: Utah

"This is a complete team and just signed their best recruiting class in history and can make the playoffs and make some enoise once there" - Phil Steele

BYU got a boost when Texas Tech quarterback Brendan Sorsby announced he was not playing college football in 2026. The Cougars were really good in 2025, but couldn't get over the Texas Tech hump. They'll get shots to turn some heads with Notre Dame at home, but they travel to Utah and TCU.
3. Oklahoma Sooners
Oklahoma Team Profile
- Conference: SEC
- Head Coach: Brent Venables (5th Season)
- Offensive Coordinator: Ben Arbuckle
- Defensive Coordinator: Todd Bates
- 2026 Record: 4-4 (2-3)
- Conference: SEC
- Location: Norman, Oklahoma
Week 10 Opponent: Florida

"This is Venebles best team yet, but will not be a preseason Top 10 team so they are a repeat surprise team for me." - Phil Steele

A healthy John Mateer may be the difference between a really solid Oklahoma squad and one that can compete for the SEC title and make a run in the CFP.
4. USC Trojans
USC Trojans Team Profile
- Conference: Big Ten
- Head Coach: Lincoln Riley (4th Season)
- Offensive Coordinator: Luke Huard
- Defensive Coordinator: Gary Patterson
- 2026 Record: 7-2 (4-2)
- Location: Los Angeles, California
Week 10 Opponent: Bye

"The Trojans get Ohio State, Oregon and Washington at home and Riley is 50-7 at home." - Phil Steele

USC is a popular sleeper pick for the CFP, but an injury to starting center Killian O'Connor will raise concerns. If the Trojans can take care of business at home, they'll make the playoffs.
5. Utah Utes
Utah Team Profile
- Conference: Big 12
- Head Coach: Morgan Scalley (1st Season)
- Offensive Coordinator: Kevin McGiven
- Defensive Coordinator: Colton Swan
- 2026 Record: 8-0 (5-0)
- Location: Salt Lake City, Utah
Week 10 Opponent: BYU

"It surprises me that my #5 surprise team is the Utah Utes. Utah was explosive offensively last year with the QB duo of Devon Dampier and Bryd Ficklin and both return." - Phil Steele

Utah breaks in a new head coach for the first time in 20 years, but there is plenty of talent and the schedule sets up well for a run at a Big XII title.
6. SMU Mustangs
SMU Team Profile
- Conference: ACC
- Head Coach: Rhett Lashlee (5th Season)
- Offensive Coordinator: N/A
- Defensive Coordinator: N/A
- 2026 Record: 6-2 (4-2)
- Location: University Park, Texas
Week 10 Opponent: Virginia Tech

"SMU is 22-2 in conference play the last three years and has a great shot at the ACC title game putting them one step from a 2nd Playoff berth in 3 years." - Phil Steele

SMU avoids Miami and Clemson in the regular season, but late trips to Notre Dame and Stanford could trip them up for a second year in a row.
7. Clemson Tigers
Clemson Team Profile
- Conference: ACC
- Head Coach: Dabo Swinney (19th Season)
- Offensive Coordinator: Chad Morris
- Defensive Coordinator: Tom Allen
- 2026 Record: 5-3 (3-2)
- Location: Clemson, South Carolina
Week 10 Opponent: Syracuse

"Swinney's squad is under the radar and he has 7 playoff berths the last 11 years." - Phil Steele

Clemson returning to prominence would be a surprise, but crazier things have happened. Can Dabo Swinney recapture his success from before the NIL Era?
8. Louisville Cardinals
Louisville Team Profile
- Conference: ACC
- Head Coach: Jeff Brohm (4th Year)
- Offensive Coordinator: Brian Brohm
- Defensive Coordinator: N/A
- 2026 Record: 5-3 (4-2)
- Location: Louisville, Kentucky
Week 10 Opponent: Georgia Tech

"The Cards schedule sets up well and they have an explosive RB combo off Isaac and Keyjuan Brown and DE Clev Lubin leads an underrated defense." - Phil Steele

If Ohio State transfer Lincoln Kienholz can be the answer, the Cardinals can be the surprise team in the ACC. Early season matchups with Ole Miss and SMU will dictate how far this team goes.
9. Iowa Hawkeyes
Iowa Hawkeyes Team Profile
- Conference: Big Ten
- Head Coach: Kirk Ferentz (27th Season)
- Offensive Coordinator: Tim Lester
- Defensive Coordinator: Phil Parker
- 2026 Record: 6-2 (3-2)
- Stadium: Kinnick Stadium
Week 10 Opponent: Northwestern

"The Iowa Hawkeyes make this list not because of their overriding talent, but because some how some way HC Kirk Ferentz always has them near the top of the Big 10." - Phil Steele

Iowa was a combined seven points short of upsetting Indiana and Oregon last season. Hank Brown should give their offense some life to help get over the hill.
10. Houston Cougars
Houston Team Profile
- Conference: Big 12
- Head Coach: Willie Fritz (3rd Season)
- Offensive Coordinator: Slade Nagle
- Defensive Coordinator: Austin Armstrong
- 2026 Record: 6-2 (3-2)
- Location: Houston, Texas
Week 10 Opponent: Cincinnati

"QB (Conor) Weigman is back and the Big 12 is known for teams coming out of nowhere and winning the league." - Phil Steele

Trips to Texas Tech and Utah will determine whether or not this team can make the playoff.
11. Tennessee Volunteers
Tennessee Team Profile
- Conference: SEC
- Head Coach: Josh Heupel (6th Season)
- Offensive Coordinator: Joey Halzle
- Defensive Coordinator: Jim Knowles
- 2026 Record: 6-2 (3-2)
- Location: Knoxville, Tennessee
Week 10 Opponent: Kentucky

"Yes, I know the Vols have a first time starting quarterback but Ohio State made the playoffs with Julian Sayin and Notre Dame should have made the playoff with CJ Carr." - Phil Steele

Comparing Faizon Brandon to Julian Sayin and CJ Carr is a reach and Tennessee does not have the supporting talent the Buckeyes and Irish have.
12. TCU Horned Frogs
TCU Team Profile
- Conference: Big 12
- Head Coach: Sonny Dykes (5th Season)
- Offensive Coordinator: Gordon Sammis
- Defensive Coordinator: Andy Avalos
- 2026 Record: 4-4 (2-3)
- Location: Fort Worth, Texas
Week 10 Opponent: Arizona

"I like QB Jaden Craig who transfers in from Harvard and he could have them cutting down on the turnovers and the schedule sets up well for a possible return to the playoffs." - Phil Steele

TCU needs to avoid the 'Dublin Curse' and the season finale at Texas Tech could be a de-facto playoff game, but the path is there.
Phil Steele's Top Surprise Teams
Phil Steele's summer preview magazine annually lists the teams he believes will surprise people in the upcoming football season. He thinks there are 12 teams people should keep an eye on.

Note: The following are Phil Steele's preseason predictions.