NCAAF · 1 hour ago

Phil Steele Ranks Top 12 College Football Teams That Will Surprise in 2026

Sammy Jacobs

Host · Writer

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12. TCU Horned Frogs
"I like QB Jaden Craig who transfers in from Harvard and he could have them cutting down on the turnovers and the schedule sets up well for a possible return to the playoffs." - Phil Steele

TCU needs to avoid the 'Dublin Curse' and the season finale at Texas Tech could be a de-facto playoff game, but the path is there.
Phil Steele's Top Surprise Teams
Phil Steele's summer preview magazine annually lists the teams he believes will surprise people in the upcoming football season. He thinks there are 12 teams people should keep an eye on.
1. Alabama Crimson Tide
"Coach (Kalen) DeBoer took a less talented team to the National title game with Washington and just got a contract extension so the team should be bought in." - Phil Steele

It's a sign of the times to have mighty Alabama as a team to surprise, but the Crimson Tide were smashed by the Indiana Hoosiers in the Rose Bowl. They need to figure out the quarterback position, but Alabama may not drop off the way people think they have.
2. BYU Cougars
"This is a complete team and just signed their best recruiting class in history and can make the playoffs and make some enoise once there" - Phil Steele

BYU got a boost when Texas Tech quarterback Brendan Sorsby announced he was not playing college football in 2026. The Cougars were really good in 2025, but couldn't get over the Texas Tech hump. They'll get shots to turn some heads with Notre Dame at home, but they travel to Utah and TCU.
3. Oklahoma Sooners
"This is Venebles best team yet, but will not be a preseason Top 10 team so they are a repeat surprise team for me." - Phil Steele

A healthy John Mateer may be the difference between a really solid Oklahoma squad and one that can compete for the SEC title and make a run in the CFP.
4. USC Trojans
"The Trojans get Ohio State, Oregon and Washington at home and Riley is 50-7 at home." - Phil Steele

USC is a popular sleeper pick for the CFP, but an injury to starting center Killian O'Connor will raise concerns. If the Trojans can take care of business at home, they'll make the playoffs.
5. Utah Utes
"It surprises me that my #5 surprise team is the Utah Utes. Utah was explosive offensively last year with the QB duo of Devon Dampier and Bryd Ficklin and both return." - Phil Steele

Utah breaks in a new head coach for the first time in 20 years, but there is plenty of talent and the schedule sets up well for a run at a Big XII title.
6. SMU Mustangs
"SMU is 22-2 in conference play the last three years and has a great shot at the ACC title game putting them one step from a 2nd Playoff berth in 3 years." - Phil Steele

SMU avoids Miami and Clemson in the regular season, but late trips to Notre Dame and Stanford could trip them up for a second year in a row.
7. Clemson Tigers
"Swinney's squad is under the radar and he has 7 playoff berths the last 11 years." - Phil Steele

Clemson returning to prominence would be a surprise, but crazier things have happened. Can Dabo Swinney recapture his success from before the NIL Era?
8. Louisville Cardinals
"The Cards schedule sets up well and they have an explosive RB combo off Isaac and Keyjuan Brown and DE Clev Lubin leads an underrated defense." - Phil Steele

If Ohio State transfer Lincoln Kienholz can be the answer, the Cardinals can be the surprise team in the ACC. Early season matchups with Ole Miss and SMU will dictate how far this team goes.
9. Iowa Hawkeyes
"The Iowa Hawkeyes make this list not because of their overriding talent, but because some how some way HC Kirk Ferentz always has them near the top of the Big 10." - Phil Steele

Iowa was a combined seven points short of upsetting Indiana and Oregon last season. Hank Brown should give their offense some life to help get over the hill.
10. Houston Cougars
"QB (Conor) Weigman is back and the Big 12 is known for teams coming out of nowhere and winning the league." - Phil Steele

Trips to Texas Tech and Utah will determine whether or not this team can make the playoff.
11. Tennessee Volunteers
"Yes, I know the Vols have a first time starting quarterback but Ohio State made the playoffs with Julian Sayin and Notre Dame should have made the playoff with CJ Carr." - Phil Steele

Comparing Faizon Brandon to Julian Sayin and CJ Carr is a reach and Tennessee does not have the supporting talent the Buckeyes and Irish have.
12. TCU Horned Frogs
"I like QB Jaden Craig who transfers in from Harvard and he could have them cutting down on the turnovers and the schedule sets up well for a possible return to the playoffs." - Phil Steele

TCU needs to avoid the 'Dublin Curse' and the season finale at Texas Tech could be a de-facto playoff game, but the path is there.
Phil Steele's Top Surprise Teams
Phil Steele's summer preview magazine annually lists the teams he believes will surprise people in the upcoming football season. He thinks there are 12 teams people should keep an eye on.

Final

Blue Jays +146, U 8.5

BOS

1

TOR

2

Final

Mets +130, O 8.5

NYM

8

ATL

5

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