Iowa Hawkeyes 2026 College Football Preview & Predictions

Iowa has been among the most consistent programs in college football. In the ten full seasons since 2015 (6-2 in 2020), only five programs have won at least eight games every season. The Hawkeyes are in a group that includes Ohio State, Michigan, Georgia, and Alabama. Impressive.

Iowa Hawkeyes Snapshot

• 2025 Record: 9-4 (6-3) | Big Ten Finish: 6th (tied)
• P. Poll: No. 22 | Coaches Poll: No. 22 | SP+: No. 22
• Head Coach: Kirk Ferentz (28th Year) | Record: 221-149 | At Iowa: 209-128
• Offensive Coordinator: Tim Lester (3rd Year)
• Defensive Coordinator: Phil Parker (15th Year/28th at Iowa)

The Hawkeyes have won at least six games in 24 of the past 25 years, and over the past ten seasons, the defense has allowed fewer than 20 points per game each year. Kirk Ferentz is entering his 28th season, as is Phil Parker, including his 15th as the defensive coordinator. That’s unheard-of continuity in today’s college football.

Iowa Futures Odds (DraftKings)

• Regular Season Wins: OVER 7.5 -140 | UNDER 7.5 +120
• Conference Wins: OVER 4.5 -140 | UNDER 4.5 +120
• National Championship Odds: +14000 | CFB Playoff Odds: +900
• B1G Championship Odds: +4200 | To Reach B1GCG: +1800

The sportsbooks are projecting eight regular-season wins for the Hawkeyes, which is exactly what they won in 2024 and 2025, when they went 8-4 going into their bowl game. With the same odds for OVER and UNDER 7.5 regular-season wins as 4.5 conference wins, they are expecting Iowa to sweep their three out-of-conference games. As for the playoffs, they are a long shot, and at +4200 to win the B1G, the Hawkeyes are clearly the fifth of five teams with odds worse than +260 and better than +13500.

Iowa Preview: Why You Should Buy

• 4-Deep at Running Back
• 2 Starting Caliber Tight Ends
• Increased Talent at WR

Iowa’s best teams have depth at running back and a potentially elite tight end. Leading rusher Kamari Moulton is back after rushing for 878 yards (5.2 YPC), with Xavier Williams (5.8 YPC) and Nathan McNeil (4.6 YPC) very capable backups. That didn’t stop them from adding FCS All-American L.J. Phillips (1,921 yards, 19 TDs), a 225-pound bowling ball from South Dakota. TE DJ Vonnahme broke out with team bests, 29 receptions for 434 yards (15 YPC) as a redshirt freshman. Back from injury is TE2 Addison Ostrenga (46 receptions in 2023-24).

Wide receiver has typically been the weakness of this roster (along with QB). That might not be the case in 2025. There’s a ridiculous amount of buzz surrounding Tony Diaz (67-881-11) from Texas-Rio Grande (FCS). Junior Reece Vander Zee has elite size (6’4” and 220 pounds) and has flashed his potential when healthy. KJ Parker had a strong spring, and Evan James (65-796-7) is another intriguing FCS transfer. The sophomores provide depth.

Iowa Preview: Why You Should Sell

• Returning Production: 104th Nationally (44 percent)
• Must Replace All 4 Defensive Linemen
• Must Replace 4 Players in Their Back 7
• Top 3 Tacklers Gone (7 of Top 9)

Remember when we talked about Iowa’s continuity? About that. Of the 36 offenses and defenses in the Big Ten, 18 have at least 50 percent of their production back. Only one unit has fewer than 45 percent back: Phil Parker’s defense (40 percent). The biggest concern is upfront, where the Hawkeyes are used to bringing back talent and depth. Only two defensive linemen with more than three tackles in 2025 are back, and none of the top four has started a college football game.

They brought in some FCS guys, but as others have said, you’re not money-balling the defensive line. Not in the Big Ten. If you include the projected starting linebackers, they’re up to seven career starts for the front seven. They return one of the team’s 26 sacks and three of their 31 pressures, including no sacks and one pressure from their front four. Parker’s teams rely on generating pressure from their front four, which allows them to drop seven in coverage. This is a lot to replace in one season. Who is CB2, and who plays “Cash" are two more questions on D.

Iowa Breakout Player: EDGE Defenders

• Kenneth Merrieweather: 14 Tackles, 1 QB Hurry, 1 TFL
• Iose Epenesa: 5-Star Recruit 2025 Class
• Joseph Anderson: 4-Star Recruit 2024 Class
• Kahmari Brown: Coastal Athletic-Best 12 sacks (3 FF)

The Hawkeyes need two, if not three, of these players to break out. If not, they’re in serious trouble. Kenneth Merrieweather is the next in line. He played in all 13 games last season and 18 in his career, so he’s the most experienced at this level. Iose Epenesa looks to live up to the name and his recruiting ranking, and is Iowa’s only five-star on the roster. The Hawkeyes rarely get players with his level of talent, so when they do, it’s important they hit. Joseph Anderson is another top recruit, while Elon transfer Kahmari Brown has done it before, but will his FCS success carry over to the Big Ten? They will all get their chance.

Iowa X-Factor: Offensive Line

• 2 Top Starters Back
• 3 Starters Gone to the NFL (Drafted Between 2nd-5th Round)

The offensive line returns a pair of All-Big Ten performers in Kade Pieper and Trevor Lauck, with Piper getting preseason All-American love from the AP, Walter Camp, On3, and Athlon. This position unit isn’t the typical X-Factor, as it has a pretty established floor. However, replacing three NFL Draft picks, including two Day 2 selections in Logan Jones and Gennings Dunker, won’t be easy. If Piper shifts inside from guard to center, it means Lauck at left tackle is the only starter back at the same position.

Among those competing for a starting job in 2026 are guard Leighton Jones, who was solid in 11 games as a reserve last season, and Lucas Allgeyer, who saw some game action as a true freshman, not common in the trenches. The right tackle is likely Jack Dotzler, who was beat out by Lauck for left tackle last season but still played in all 13 games. I expect this group will be good. But how good? Slightly above-average or Joe Moore Award caliber could be the difference between two or three outcomes.

Iowa Schedule Analysis

• SP+ SOS Rank: 34
• Phil Steele Toughest Schedules: 57

By Big Ten standards, Iowa’s schedule is among the easiest. The easiest according to Phil Steele. They should race to a 3-0 start with home games against Northern Illinois, Northern Iowa, and a down Iowa State team. In conference, they play only one of the B1G 3, hosting Ohio State. But really, if you’re Iowa, you’d probably rather have anyone else on the schedule come to Kinnick, where the Hawkeyes are tough to beat.

Their game against OSU is sandwiched between trips to Michigan and Washington, which has to be one of the toughest three-week stretches any team in the country faces. The back half of the schedule features home games against Wisconsin, Purdue, and Nebraska, with road games at Minnesota, Northwestern, and Illinois. None of those road games will be easy.

Iowa Best Bet, Long Shot, and Prediction: OVER/UNDER 7.5 Wins

• Win Total: UNDER 7.5 (+120 @ DraftKings)
• Best Bet: UNDER 7.5 (+120 @ DraftKings)
• Long Shot: Exactly 7 wins (+330 @ DraftKings)

If you’ve been following my B1G Bets columns over the past few seasons, then you know I am bullish on the Hawkeyes more often than not. There might not be a coach I’ve trusted or backed more than Phil Parker. But man, they lost a lot of production from last season’s team, so even with an easier schedule, I’m not sold that they’re getting to eight wins.

Despite the consistency we talked about at the top, during the aforementioned 10-year run, Iowa won seven regular-season games in 2022 and 2017, so it’s not unheard of. Having to replace the most production lost in the Big Ten without a monster portal or recruiting class is a tough ask. Especially with lingering uncertainty about who the quarterback will be, even as we approach Week 1. This feels like a rebuilding season. If they start 0-3 in Big Ten play as we expect, going 4-2 against their final six games sounds right, with some potential hedge opportunities.