NCAAF · 10 hours ago

ESPN Ranks College Football’s 31 One-Loss Teams by Strength of Record Right Now

Harrison Montavon

Host · Writer

NCAA Football: North Dakota State at Air Force
All 31 of these programs have started off the season strong. Which of these one-loss teams has the strongest resume and which one has the best shot at the College Football Playoff?

Which is about to start a dream-ending losing streak?

Hit us up in the comments!
Ohio State Buckeyes quarterback Julian Sayin (10) celebrates a touchdown run by running back Bo Jackson (25) during the NCAA
With the college football season heating up, ESPN's strength-of-record rankings offer a look at which one-loss teams have built the most impressive resumes. ESPN's strength-of-record metric evaluates how difficult it would be for an average Top 25 team to match or exceed a team's record against its schedule.

The 31 teams below are ranked by their ESPN strength-of-record positions, with each team's overall ranking and full ESPN Football Power Index (FPI) profile included.
1. Kentucky Wildcats (5-1)
ESPN Strength of Record: No. 4 nationally (No. 1 among the one-loss teams).

Kentucky's ESPN FPI Profile
- FPI Rank: 30
- Projected Record: 7.9-4.2
- Playoff Probability: 20.7%
- Win Conference Probability: 0.7%
- Win-Out Probability: 0.7%
- Make National Championship Game: 0.5%
2. Alabama Crimson Tide (5-1)gia at Alabama
ESPN Strength of Record: No. 5 nationally (No. 2 among the one-loss teams)

Alabama's ESPN FPI Profile
- FPI Rank: 5
- Projected Record: 10.2-2.3
- Playoff Probability: 81.8%
- Win Conference Probability: 23.6%
- Win-Out Probability: 32.1%
- Make National Championship Game: 20.5%
3. Texas Longhorns (4-1)
ESPN Strength of Record: No. 7 nationally (No. 3 among the one-loss teams).

Texas's ESPN FPI Profile
- FPI Rank: 6
- Projected Record: 9.7-2.6
- Playoff Probability: 74.6%
- Win Conference Probability: 13.8%
- Win-Out Probability: 19.6%
- Make National Championship Game: 17.1%
4. Mississippi State Bulldogs (4-1)
ESPN Strength of Record: No. 10 nationally (No. 4 among the one-loss teams).

Mississippi State's ESPN FPI Profile
- FPI Rank: 27
- Projected Record: 7.6-4.5
- Playoff Probability: 14.1%
- Win Conference Probability: 0.3%
- Win-Out Probability: 0.2%
- Make National Championship Game: 0.5%
5. Wake Forest Demon Deacons (5-1)
ESPN Strength of Record: No. 12 nationally (No. 5 among the one-loss teams).

Wake Forest's ESPN FPI Profile
- FPI Rank: 22
- Projected Record: 9.7-2.8
- Playoff Probability: 29.8%
- Win Conference Probability: 8.8%
- Win-Out Probability: 20.2%
- Make National Championship Game: 0.9%
6. Iowa Hawkeyes (5-1)
ESPN Strength of Record: No. 13 nationally (No. 6 among the one-loss teams).

Iowa's ESPN FPI Profile
- FPI Rank: 23
- Projected Record: 8.8-3.3
- Playoff Probability: 20.4%
- Win Conference Probability: 1.5%
- Win-Out Probability: 5.1%
- Make National Championship Game: 0.7%
7. Ohio State Buckeyes (5-1)
ESPN Strength of Record: No. 14 nationally (No. 7 among the one-loss teams).

Ohio State's ESPN FPI Profile
- FPI Rank: 3
- Projected Record: 10.1-2.6
- Playoff Probability: 76.9%
- Win Conference Probability: 45.1%
- Win-Out Probability: 20.4%
- Make National Championship Game: 22.3%
8. Ole Miss Rebels (4-1)
ESPN Strength of Record: No. 15 nationally (No. 8 among the one-loss teams).

Ole Miss's ESPN FPI Profile
- FPI Rank: 15
- Projected Record: 7.8-4.3
- Playoff Probability: 19.8%
- Win Conference Probability: 1.4%
- Win-Out Probability: 0.5%
- Make National Championship Game: 1.2%
9. Wisconsin Badgers (4-1)
ESPN Strength of Record: No. 16 nationally (No. 9 among the one-loss teams).

Wisconsin's ESPN FPI Profile
- FPI Rank: 37
- Projected Record: 8.4-3.8
- Playoff Probability: 11.8%
- Win Conference Probability: 2.3%
- Win-Out Probability: 2.6%
- Make National Championship Game: 0.3%
10. USC Trojans (6-1)
ESPN Strength of Record: No. 17 nationally (No. 10 among the one-loss teams).

USC's ESPN FPI Profile
- FPI Rank: 19
- Projected Record: 8.4-3.6
- Playoff Probability: 17.0%
- Win Conference Probability: 1.3%
- Win-Out Probability: 0.9%
- Make National Championship Game: 0.7%
11. Houston Cougars (5-1)
ESPN Strength of Record: No. 19 nationally (No. 11 among the one-loss teams).

Houston's ESPN FPI Profile
- FPI Rank: 18
- Projected Record: 9.2-2.9
- Playoff Probability: 23.2%
- Win Conference Probability: 7.9%
- Win-Out Probability: 8.6%
- Make National Championship Game: 1.0%
12. Missouri Tigers (5-1)
ESPN Strength of Record: No. 20 nationally (No. 12 among the one-loss teams).

Missouri's ESPN FPI Profile
- FPI Rank: 17
- Projected Record: 7.9-4.2
- Playoff Probability: 16.0%
- Win Conference Probability: 1.0%
- Win-Out Probability: 0.4%
- Make National Championship Game: 0.8%
13. Tennessee Volunteers (5-1)
ESPN Strength of Record: No. 21 nationally (No. 13 among the one-loss teams).

Tennessee's ESPN FPI Profile
- FPI Rank: 13
- Projected Record: 8.4-3.7
- Playoff Probability: 24.4%
- Win Conference Probability: 1.6%
- Win-Out Probability: 2.4%
- Make National Championship Game: 1.5%
14. Northwestern Wildcats (4-1)
ESPN Strength of Record: No. 23 nationally (No. 14 among the one-loss teams listed).

Northwestern's ESPN FPI Profile
- FPI Rank: 20
- Projected Record: 8.3-3.8
- Playoff Probability: 14.9%
- Win Conference Probability: 0.8%
- Win-Out Probability: 0.8%
- Make National Championship Game: 0.7%
15. Boise State Broncos (5-1)
ESPN Strength of Record: No. 24 nationally (No. 15 among the one-loss teams listed).

Boise State's ESPN FPI Profile
- FPI Rank: 29
- Projected Record: 10.1-1.9
- Playoff Probability: 46.8%
- Win Conference Probability: 67.6%
- Win-Out Probability: 53.5%
- Make National Championship Game: 0.8%
16. Arizona Wildcats (5-1)
ESPN Strength of Record: No. 27 nationally (No. 16 among the one-loss teams listed).

Arizona's ESPN FPI Profile
- FPI Rank: 35
- Projected Record: 8.4-3.7
- Playoff Probability: 6.6%
- Win Conference Probability: 2.0%
- Win-Out Probability: 1.6%
- Make National Championship Game: 0.1%
17. Nebraska Cornhuskers (5-1)
ESPN Strength of Record: No. 28 nationally (No. 17 among the one-loss teams).

Nebraska's ESPN FPI Profile
- FPI Rank: 12
- Projected Record: 8.8-3.3
- Playoff Probability: 20.6%
- Win Conference Probability: 1.6%
- Win-Out Probability: 3.3%
- Make National Championship Game: 1.4%
18. UTSA Roadrunners (5-1)
ESPN Strength of Record: No. 30 nationally (No. 18 among the one-loss teams).

UTSA's ESPN FPI Profile
- FPI Rank: 74
- Projected Record: 8.9-3.5
- Playoff Probability: 4.0%
- Win Conference Probability: 17.8%
- Win-Out Probability: 6.0%
- Make National Championship Game: 0.0%
19. SMU Mustangs (4-1)
ESPN Strength of Record: No. 31 nationally (No. 19 among the one-loss teams).

SMU's ESPN FPI Profile
- FPI Rank: 40
- Projected Record: 8.1-4.1
- Playoff Probability: 4.6%
- Win Conference Probability: 2.5%
- Win-Out Probability: 0.4%
- Make National Championship Game: 0.1%
20. Oklahoma State Cowboys (4-1)
ESPN Strength of Record: No. 32 nationally (No. 20 among the one-loss teams).

Oklahoma State's ESPN FPI Profile
- FPI Rank: 42
- Projected Record: 7.7-4.4
- Playoff Probability: 4.3%
- Win Conference Probability: 2.5%
- Win-Out Probability: 0.6%
- Make National Championship Game: 0.1%
21. Pittsburgh Panthers (5-1)
ESPN Strength of Record: No. 34 nationally (No. 21 among the one-loss teams).

Pittsburgh's ESPN FPI Profile
- FPI Rank: 32
- Projected Record: 8.6-3.5
- Playoff Probability: 6.1%
- Win Conference Probability: 1.9%
- Win-Out Probability: 1.3%
- Make National Championship Game: 0.1%
22. Baylor Bears (4-1)
ESPN Strength of Record: No. 36 nationally (No. 22 among the one-loss teams).

Baylor's ESPN FPI Profile
- FPI Rank: 33
- Projected Record: 7.6-4.5
- Playoff Probability: 6.7%
- Win Conference Probability: 4.3%
- Win-Out Probability: 0.6%
- Make National Championship Game: 0.2%
23. Cincinnati Bearcats (4-1)
ESPN Strength of Record: No. 38 nationally (No. 23 among the one-loss teams).

Cincinnati's ESPN FPI Profile
- FPI Rank: 56
- Projected Record: 6.4-5.6
- Playoff Probability: 0.5%
- Win Conference Probability: 0.2%
- Win-Out Probability: 0.0%
- Make National Championship Game: 0.0%
24. Memphis Tigers (5-1)
ESPN Strength of Record: No. 39 nationally (No. 24 among the one-loss teams).

Memphis's ESPN FPI Profile
- FPI Rank: 54
- Projected Record: 9.8-2.8
- Playoff Probability: 6.3%
- Win Conference Probability: 38.7%
- Win-Out Probability: 16.5%
- Make National Championship Game: 0.0%
25. Duke Blue Devils (4-1)
ESPN Strength of Record: No. 41 nationally (No. 25 among the one-loss teams).

Duke's ESPN FPI Profile
- FPI Rank: 43
- Projected Record: 7.5-4.5
- Playoff Probability: 1.7%
- Win Conference Probability: 0.5%
- Win-Out Probability: 0.2%
- Make National Championship Game: 0.0%
26. Florida Atlantic Owls (4-1)
ESPN Strength of Record: No. 44 nationally (No. 26 among the one-loss teams).

Florida Atlantic's ESPN FPI Profile
- FPI Rank: 98
- Projected Record: 6.8-5.3
- Playoff Probability: 0.1%
- Win Conference Probability: 1.9%
- Win-Out Probability: 0.1%
- Make National Championship Game: 0.0%
27. New Mexico Lobos (4-1)
ESPN Strength of Record: No. 45 nationally (No. 27 among the one-loss teams).

New Mexico's ESPN FPI Profile
- FPI Rank: 38
- Projected Record: 10.6-2.2
- Playoff Probability: 11.2%
- Win Conference Probability: 63.4%
- Win-Out Probability: 38.1%
- Make National Championship Game: 0.1%
28. North Dakota State Bison (5-1)
ESPN Strength of Record: No. 48 nationally (No. 28 among the one-loss teams).

North Dakota State's ESPN FPI Profile
- FPI Rank: 69
- Projected Record: 9.5-2.9
- Playoff Probability: 1.3%
- Win Conference Probability: 14.6%
- Win-Out Probability: 7.3%
- Make National Championship Game: 0.0%
29. Liberty Flames (5-1)
ESPN Strength of Record: No. 52 nationally (No. 29 among the one-loss teams).

Liberty's ESPN FPI Profile
- FPI Rank: 65
- Projected Record: 10.7-2.2
- Playoff Probability: 1.2%
- Win Conference Probability: 69.1%
- Win-Out Probability: 35.9%
- Make National Championship Game: 0.0%
30. Georgia State Panthers (4-1)
ESPN Strength of Record: No. 53 nationally (No. 30 among the one-loss teams).

Georgia State's ESPN FPI Profile
- FPI Rank: 83
- Projected Record: 8.3-3.8
- Playoff Probability: 0.6%
- Win Conference Probability: 8.1%
- Win-Out Probability: 2.1%
- Make National Championship Game: 0.0%
31. Air Force Falcons (4-1)
ESPN Strength of Record: No. 62 nationally (No. 31 among the one-loss teams).

Air Force's ESPN FPI Profile
- FPI Rank: 82
- Projected Record: 8.3-4.0
- Playoff Probability: 0.3%
- Win Conference Probability: 6.0%
- Win-Out Probability: 1.1%
- Make National Championship Game: 0.0%
NCAA Football: North Dakota State at Air Force
All 31 of these programs have started off the season strong. Which of these one-loss teams has the strongest resume and which one has the best shot at the College Football Playoff?

Which is about to start a dream-ending losing streak?

Hit us up in the comments!
Ohio State Buckeyes quarterback Julian Sayin (10) celebrates a touchdown run by running back Bo Jackson (25) during the NCAA
With the college football season heating up, ESPN's strength-of-record rankings offer a look at which one-loss teams have built the most impressive resumes. ESPN's strength-of-record metric evaluates how difficult it would be for an average Top 25 team to match or exceed a team's record against its schedule.

The 31 teams below are ranked by their ESPN strength-of-record positions, with each team's overall ranking and full ESPN Football Power Index (FPI) profile included.