NCAAB · 7 hours ago

9 Teams That KenPom Says Can Win the NCAA Tournament

Danny Mogollon

Host · Writer

Who Else?
March Madness Best of the Rest
- The lone No. 2 seed not to qualify for this list, the Purdue Boilermakers have done fine so far. The Big Ten Tournament champs are a real contender thanks to the most-efficient offense per KenPom. However, can they overcome a defense that isn't elite, although getting better, ranked 33rd overall (up from 37th going into March Madness).
- Going in, we thought Arkansas and St. John’s were dangerous teams, and they've done nothing to change our minds.
- The Razorbacks boost the nation's fifth-best offense per KenPom, but their defense could be a problem. Ranked 46th going into the tournament, Arkansas has dropped to 55th defensively.
- Meanwhile, the Red Storm has a top-ten defense (8th to be exact), which allows them to overcome an inconsistent offense. Rick Pitino's team is close. They were 44th on offense going into the Dance and moved up two spots to 42, just outside the top 40. If they play well enough to upset Duke in the Sweet 16, we wouldn't be surprised to see the Johnnies get another bump and sneak onto the list.
9 Teams That KenPom Says Can Win the NCAA Tournament
With the first week behind us, 52 out of 67 NCAA Tournament games are in the books, as we're down to the Sweet 16.

Going into the first round, we identified 11 teams that fulfilled the criteria of a KenPom National Champion. The college basketball guru's database dates back to 1997, and since then, every eventual National Champ has finished in the top 40 in offensive efficiency and the top 25 in defensive efficiency. His metric measures points per 100 possessions, adjusted for pace.

Those 11 teams went 19-3 over the first weekend, with all 11 advancing to the second round, before the Florida Gators, Gonzaga Bulldogs, and Virginia Cavaliers suffered upsets in the second round. That leaves eight programs that fit the bill going into the Round of 16.

Or does it? One team played so well through the opening weekend that they played themselves onto the list.

Let's see how they stack up and who they face next!
1) Michigan Wolverines
Previous Rank: 2

Michigan’s NCAA Tournament Profile
- Record: 33-3 | KenPom Rank: 1
- KenPom Rank: 6
- KenPom Rank: 2
- Region: Midwest | Seed: 1
With a dominant first weekend, the Wolverines have moved up to No. 1 on this list. With Alabama missing a key scorer, the road to the Final Four has gotten even easier for the regular-season Big Ten champs.

Toughest Challengers: Iowa State, Alabama

March Madness Odds:
- Next Game: -10.5 vs. Alabama
- Reach the Final 4: -170
- National Championship: +290
2) Arizona Wildcats
Previous Rank: 3

Arizona’s NCAA Tournament Profile
- Record: 34-2 | KenPom Rank: 2
- KenPom Rank: 4
- KenPom Rank: 3
- Region: West | Seed: 1
Arizona cruised to double-digit wins in each of its first two tournament games. They also saw Gonzaga — the only other KenPom qualifier in their region — get bounced early. That doesn't mean the path is easy, not with Arkansas and potentially Purdue in the way.

Toughest Challengers: Purdue, Arkansas

March Madness Odds:
- Next Game: -8.5 vs. Arkansas
- Reach the Final 4: -130
- National Championship: +400
3) Duke Blue Devils
Previous Rank: 1

Duke’s NCAA Tournament Profile
- Record: 34-2 | KenPom Rank: 3
- Offensive KenPom Rank: 7
- Defensive KenPom Rank: 1
- Region: East | Seed: 1
Survive and advance is just what Duke did, but boy, have they looked vulnerable in doing so. Without their starting point guard, their offense isn't nearly as efficient, and their metrics have taken a slight hit. Moreover, the other three teams in their region are all led by championship-winning coaches. It won't be easy.

Toughest Challengers: UConn, Michigan State, St. John’s

March Madness Odds:
- Next Game: -6.5
- Reach the Final 4: -120
- National Championship: +410
4) Houston Cougars
Previous Rank: 5

Houston’s NCAA Tournament Profile
- Record: 30-6 | KenPom Rank: 4
- KenPom Rank: 10
- KenPom Rank: 4
- Region: South | Seed: 2
It's a tale of two fortunes for Houston. No. 1 seed Florida was knocked out by Iowa, which makes the Cougars the favorite to win the region. That's if they can beat Illinois to advance to the Elite 8. The Illini look like the best three-seed in the bracket.

Toughest Challengers: Illinois, Nebraska

March Madness Odds:
- Next Game: -3.5 vs. Illinois
- Reach the Final 4: +105
- National Championship: +700
5) Illinois Fighting Illini
Previous Rank: NR

Illinois’s NCAA Tournament Profile
- Record: 26-8 | KenPom Rank: 6
- KenPom Rank: 2
- KenPom Rank: 24
- Region: South | Seed: 3
Going into the Big Dance, No. 3 seed Illinois was on the outside looking in, but its defensive metrics were so impressive that they improved enough to crack the list. Their defensive efficiency was ranked 28th prior to the first round and is now 24th going into the Sweet 16, while their offense ranks second. Has anyone looked better? Houston won't be an easy game to win but if they pull off the upset, the Illini become the team to beat in the South.

Toughest Challengers: Houston, Nebraska

March Madness Odds:
- Next Game: +3.5 vs. Houston
- Reach the Final 4: +220
- National Championship: +1500
6) Iowa State Cyclones
Previous Rank: 6

Iowa State’s NCAA Tournament Profile
- Record: 29-7 | KenPom Rank: 7
- KenPom Rank: 17
- KenPom Rank: 5
- Region: Midwest | Seed: 2
Without their best player in the second round, we thought Iowa State might be vulnerable against Kentucky, and they were for a half, before putting on a dominant show to pull away against the Wildcats. As impressive as that was, they will need Joshua Jefferson to make a deep run. They get the six seed in the Sweet 16, but Michigan still looms.

Toughest Challengers: Michigan, Alabama

March Madness Odds:
- Next Game: -4.5 vs. Tennessee
- Reach the Final 4: +300
- National Championship: +1600
7) Michigan State Spartans
Previous Rank: 8

Michigan State’s NCAA Tournament Profile
- Record: 27-7 | KenPom Rank: 9
- KenPom Rank: 22
- KenPom Rank: 13
- Region: East | Seed: 3
The path hasn't gotten any easier for Michigan State, as their odds to reach the Final Four have lengthened; however, should they pull off an upset or two on their way to the Final 4, the books have shortened Sparty's odds to win it all.

Toughest Challengers: Duke, UConn, St. John’s

March Madness Odds:
- Next Game: +1.5 vs. Connecticut
- Reach the Final 4: +500
- National Championship: +3000
8) UConn Huskies
Previous Rank: 7

UConn’s NCAA Tournament Profile
- Record: 31-5 | KenPom Rank: 10
- KenPom Rank: 30
- KenPom Rank: 11
- Region: East | Seed: 2
Another program that ho-hummed their way to the Sweet 16, UConn didn't look like a national title contender through two games, partially due to an injury to their point guard, which has negatively impacted their offensive metrics. If they are to hold off Michigan State, the Huskies will either face top-seeded Duke or a St. John’s squad that has already beaten them twice this season.

Toughest Challengers: Duke, Michigan State, St. John’s

March Madness Odds:
- Next Game: -1.5 vs. Michigan State
- Reach the Final 4: +380
- National Championship: +2500
9) Tennessee Volunteers
Previous Rank: 11

Tennessee’s NCAA Tournament Profile
- Record: 24-11 | KenPom Rank: 14
- KenPom Offense Rank: 31
- KenPom Defense Rank: 14
- Region: Midwest | Seed: 6
They are still a defensive-first team, but Tennessee has seen an uptick in its offensive metrics after winning the first two rounds. The sixth-seeded Vols are the only non-top-three seed on this list. They already "upset" No. 3 Virginia, although they were a slight favorite on the point spread, so maybe that was more about the Cavaliers. With Iowa State next, likely followed by Michigan, Tennessee has the toughest path left among these nine schools.

Toughest Challengers: Michigan, Iowa State, Alabama

March Madness Odds:
- Next Game: +4.5 vs. Iowa State
- Reach the Final 4: +750
- National Championship: +5500
Who Else?
March Madness Best of the Rest
- The lone No. 2 seed not to qualify for this list, the Purdue Boilermakers have done fine so far. The Big Ten Tournament champs are a real contender thanks to the most-efficient offense per KenPom. However, can they overcome a defense that isn't elite, although getting better, ranked 33rd overall (up from 37th going into March Madness).
- Going in, we thought Arkansas and St. John’s were dangerous teams, and they've done nothing to change our minds.
- The Razorbacks boost the nation's fifth-best offense per KenPom, but their defense could be a problem. Ranked 46th going into the tournament, Arkansas has dropped to 55th defensively.
- Meanwhile, the Red Storm has a top-ten defense (8th to be exact), which allows them to overcome an inconsistent offense. Rick Pitino's team is close. They were 44th on offense going into the Dance and moved up two spots to 42, just outside the top 40. If they play well enough to upset Duke in the Sweet 16, we wouldn't be surprised to see the Johnnies get another bump and sneak onto the list.
9 Teams That KenPom Says Can Win the NCAA Tournament
With the first week behind us, 52 out of 67 NCAA Tournament games are in the books, as we're down to the Sweet 16.

Going into the first round, we identified 11 teams that fulfilled the criteria of a KenPom National Champion. The college basketball guru's database dates back to 1997, and since then, every eventual National Champ has finished in the top 40 in offensive efficiency and the top 25 in defensive efficiency. His metric measures points per 100 possessions, adjusted for pace.

Those 11 teams went 19-3 over the first weekend, with all 11 advancing to the second round, before the Florida Gators, Gonzaga Bulldogs, and Virginia Cavaliers suffered upsets in the second round. That leaves eight programs that fit the bill going into the Round of 16.

Or does it? One team played so well through the opening weekend that they played themselves onto the list.

Let's see how they stack up and who they face next!

9 Teams That KenPom Says Can Win the NCAA Tournament

March Madness Best of the Rest

Michigan’s NCAA Tournament Profile

Arizona’s NCAA Tournament Profile

Duke’s NCAA Tournament Profile

Houston’s NCAA Tournament Profile

Illinois’s NCAA Tournament Profile

Iowa State’s NCAA Tournament Profile

Michigan State’s NCAA Tournament Profile

UConn’s NCAA Tournament Profile

Tennessee’s NCAA Tournament Profile

March Madness Best of the Rest

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