NCAAB · 2 hours ago

2026 NCAA Tournament Elite Eight Best Bets: Picks for Tonight, Mar. 28

David Connelly

Host · Writer

We’ve got a pair of Elite Eight showdowns, with Iowa taking on Illinois and Purdue battling Arizona, each with a trip to the Final Four on the line! Check it out as we prepare you for a thrilling night of college basketball with expert betting insights, matchup analysis, & top picks.

First Four Best Bets Today: Expert Picks for March 28

Year to Date Record: 33-26 | Units: +5.49 units (Minus-money plays are to win one unit, plus-money plays are one unit)

Dave Connelly is SportsGrid’s lead college basketball analyst with over five years of experience covering hoops, including his industry-leading transfer portal rankings and NCAA bracket predictions (seen on Bracket Matrix). An authority in Mid-Major Basketball, Connelly’s expertise extends well beyond the Power 5.

SportsGrid Expert Pick: Illinois -6.5 (-115)

Where to Watch #9 Iowa vs. #3 Illinois

SportsGrid Matchup Page: IOWA vs. ILL
Venue: Toyota Center
Location: Houston, TX
Where to Watch: TBS
Date: March 28, 2026
Time: 6:09 p.m. ET

#9 Iowa vs. #3 Illinois Betting Odds & Market Value

Betting Market	Iowa	Illinois
Moneyline	+240	-300
Spread	+6.5 (-105)	-6.5 (-115)
Total (O/U 138.5)	Over: -115	Under: -105

#9 Iowa vs. #3 Illinois Win Probability & Prediction Market Trends

Market Metric (Kalshi)	Iowa	Illinois
Direct Win Probability	26%	74%
Cover Spread (ILL -7.5)	Yes: 47¢	No: 54¢
Total 138.5 Points	Yes: 51¢	No: 50¢

Real-time market data via Kalshi Prediction Exchange

Illinois’s offense continues to fire on all cylinders, no matter what is thrown at them. A matchup against Houston in their home city for a spot in the Elite Eight would cause almost every offense in the country to crumble at the thought of it. Instead, the Fighting Illini kept a steady head with 1.11 points per possession and an incredibly poised performance from their backcourt of Keaton Wagler and Kylan Boswell.

Holding the Cougars to just 55 points was also their best defensive performance of the season, and if they can get that side of the ball going as well, then this team has the ceiling to win a national championship. There is too much for the Hawkeyes to handle here, and we are happy to lay the spread with a group that could hand 90 on an Iowa team that ranks outside the top 250 nationally in effective field goal percentage allowed.

For more College Basketball picks, check out SportsGrid’s predictive model. Our SportsGrid predictive model doesn’t stop at the spread. See which player props have a 5-star rating tonight. Unlock your betting edge!

SportsGrid Edge: Arizona -5.5 (-104)

Where to Watch #2 Purdue vs. #1 Arizona

SportsGrid Matchup Page: PUR vs. ARIZ
Venue: SAP Center at San Jose
Location: San Jose, CA
Where to Watch: TBS
Date: March 28, 2026
Time: 8:49 p.m. ET

#2 Purdue vs. #1 Arizona Betting Odds & Market Value

Betting Market	Purdue	Arizona
Moneyline	+198	-245
Spread	+5.5 (-118)	-5.5 (-104)
Total (O/U 153.5)	Over: -102	Under: -120

Market Metric (Kalshi)	Purdue	Arizona
Direct Win Probability	31%	69%
Cover Spread (ARIZ -5.5)	Yes: 50¢	No: 51¢
Total 152.5 Points	Yes: 52¢	No: 49¢

It’s impossible to fade Arizona with the way they are playing right now. If they continue to dominate their opponents all the way to a national title for the remainder of the tournament, they will go down as one of the best teams in college basketball history. They feel as complete as any team left in the field, with a perfect blend of talent and experience in both the backcourt and frontcourt to help them attack teams at any pressure point they find over the course of 40 minutes.

While Purdue should be able to hang with their experience and frontcourt size that matches the Wildcats, both Jaden Bradley and Brayden Burries ought to overwhelm Braden Smith and Fletcher Loyeron on the defensive end with their size and athleticism. Arizona feels like a team on a mission, and we are not going to get in the way of their push for their first Final Four since 2001.