2026 NCAA Tournament: Best Bets for Every Thursday Sweet 16 Game

We’ve got a loaded Thursday evening slate in the NCAA Tournament, featuring a full lineup of March Madness matchups to keep the action rolling! Check it out as we prepare you for an exciting day of college basketball with expert betting insights, matchup analysis, & top picks.

Dave Connelly is SportsGrid’s lead college basketball analyst with over five years of experience covering hoops, including his industry-leading transfer portal rankings and NCAA bracket predictions (seen on Bracket Matrix). An authority in Mid-Major Basketball, Connelly’s expertise extends well beyond the Power 5.

#11 Texas vs. #3 Purdue

We just aren’t seeing how this Texas team is going to stop one of the most efficient offenses in the KenPom era. Purdue’s offense has some elite shooters at all parts of the floor, and they take care of the ball well.

The Boilermakers are also incredibly disciplined when it comes to letting their opponents reach the line. They rank in the top ten nationally in distribution of opponent points coming at the charity stripe, while Texas ranks in seventh in the country in free-throw rate. If the B1G Tourney champs are going to take away free throws, one of Texas’s best offensive weapons, then there just isn’t a way for the ‘Horns to hang in this spot.

The Pick: Purdue -7.5 (-115)

#9 Iowa vs. #4 Nebraska

We are going to continue to back the Hawkeyes on their surprising run through the South region. They face a familiar foe in Big Ten rival Nebraska for the third time this season, splitting their regular-season matchups.

Bennett Stirtz will be the best player on the court in this game, and he will almost certainly bounce back from his poor showing against Florida. Head coach Ben McCollum is putting his coaching chops on full display in this tournament, and he is not someone you want to be fading right now. Take the plus-money on Iowa here.

The Pick: Iowa ML (+105)

#4 Arkansas vs. #1 Arizona

Arizona currently ranks 14th in the distribution of points from inside the arc, while it ranks fourth nationally in offensive rebounding rate. Their bully-ball style is a nightmare matchup for Arkansas. There is nobody in the paint for Arkansas that makes us feel like they will be able to contain the trio of bigs in Koa Peat, Motiejus Krivas, and Tobe Awaka in this matchup.

Dominating with frontcourt size has been the name of the game for Arizona this season. While Darius Acuff Jr. will get his buckets and continue to keep Arkansas in the game early on, the Wildcats are the more complete team that is on a mission to make it to Indianapolis for the first time in Tommy Lloyd‘s career.

The Pick: Arizona -7.5 (-122)

#3 Illinois vs. #2 Houston

Perhaps the matchup of the Sweet 16, and it could be the best environment of the weekend as well. Houston gets to play this matchup just 2.4 miles from its campus in the Toyota Center, where the fans will surely take over the venue and make it a de facto home game for the Cougars. That said, we are going to rock with the “road" underdogs in this spot in Illinois.

The Illini’s offense is operating at a ridiculous level of efficiency right now, and they match up well here with Houston. Their offensive rebounding and size could give the Houston defense some fits, and they prioritize limiting turnovers and taking care of the ball, something Houston heavily relies upon. Take the dog to crack Kelvin Sampson’s defense and pull off the upset here.

The Pick: Illinois ML (+130)