2026 NCAA Tournament: Best Bets for Every Friday Sweet 16 Game

We’ve got a loaded Friday evening slate in the NCAA Tournament, featuring a full lineup of March Madness matchups to keep the action rolling! Check it out as we prepare you for an exciting day of college basketball with expert betting insights, matchup analysis, & top picks.

Dave Connelly is SportsGrid’s lead college basketball analyst with over five years of experience covering hoops, including his industry-leading transfer portal rankings and NCAA bracket predictions (seen on Bracket Matrix). An authority in Mid-Major Basketball, Connelly’s expertise extends well beyond the Power 5.

#5 St. John’s vs. #1 Duke

Beyond the box score, St. John’s has shown a real level of toughness and competitiveness that feels up there with the best teams in the country. Outside of a brutal shooting night in Hartford against UConn just over a month ago, it’s difficult to argue they haven’t been one of the best teams in the country, having won 21 of their previous 22 games.

While the Blue Devils have run the table thus far in postseason play since the start of the ACC Tournament, it has been far from convincing, and they have been playing with their food quite a bit recently. A narrow one-point win over Florida State in the ACC Tournament quarterfinals and a first-round scare against Siena. While we won’t call our shot and back the Johnnies outright, we’ll take them with the points and hope for a close game all the way through.

The Pick: St. John’s +6.5 (-106)

#4 Alabama vs. #1 Michigan

If there was a specific roster construction and playstyle that could give Michigan some fits, it would be Alabama. The Crimson Tide certainly have the superior backcourt, and they will be happy to rely on their guards to create offense and chuck up triples, as they always do, ranking highest in the nation in the percentage of field-goal attempts from beyond the arc.

The Pick: Alabama ML (+365)

#3 Michigan State vs. #2 UConn

These offenses are a lot of fun to watch when they are working in full flow. Both Tom Izzo and Dan Hurley operate their teams more as a system than as a collection of individual stars creating opportunities, and it shows in their assist rates. Both teams rank inside the top seven nationally in assist percentage, and we don’t see much resistance from either defense in stopping their opponent from finding open looks and spreading the ball around.

This total feels a touch low as it sits three points below the KenPom projection, so we are going to back the over in this spot with the slight discount.

The Pick: Over 136.5 (-105)

#6 Tennessee vs. #2 Iowa State

It’s easy to ignore the Joshua Jefferson injury after the Cyclones just easily handled Kentucky without him, but we aren’t going to be that short-sighted. Jefferson is one of the most versatile players in college basketball right now, and his absence would be monumental for this matchup. Even if he were to play, he would clearly not be at 100 percent, given what we saw when he injured his ankle in the opening round.

Tennessee is getting offensive rebounds at a historical clip, and the loss of Jefferson is a large blow to Iowa State’s defensive rebounding and overall size. The Volunteers feel live here, and we are happy to take another swing at a dog on the moneyline.

The Pick: Tennessee ML (+152)