Top NBA Player Prop Picks to Target for Tuesday, February 24

The board has a few classic line-didn’t-catch-up spots tonight. One is a role player who keeps clearing a low number. Another is a buy-low under on a scorer whose recent stretch has been rough.

The goal is simple. Grab clean hit-rate trends. Then layer in opponent history and home-road splits to find mispriced numbers.

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The Pick: Brandon Williams Over 12.5 Points

Where to Watch the Brooklyn Nets vs. Dallas Mavericks Tonight

• Arena: Barclays Center
• Location: Brooklyn, NY
• TV: NBA League Pass
• Date: February 24, 2026
• Time: 07:30 PM ET

Odds as of February 24, 2026, at 11:26 AM ET

Brandon Williams enters as a Dallas Mavericks guard with a points line that still sits below his typical production. He’s cleared 12.5 points in 80% of his last five and 90% of his last ten. He’s also on a three-game hit streak. The split is the one concern, with 11.6 points on the road versus 13.6 at home. Still, Brooklyn’s profile fits, allowing 12.2 points versus a 14.0 league average for this matchup bucket, with a 28th-ranked mark.

The Pick: Grayson Allen Over 17.5 Points

Where to Watch the Phoenix Suns vs. Boston Celtics Tonight

• Arena: Phoenix Suns Arena
• Location: Phoenix, AZ
• TV: NBA League Pass
• Date: February 24, 2026
• Time: 09:00 PM ET

Odds as of February 24, 2026, at 11:26 AM ET

Grayson Allen is in a heater, and the market is still offering plus money. He’s hit 17.5 points in 80% of his last five and 70% of his last ten. He’s also riding a four-game hit streak. The range supports it, with a 12.75-point floor and 21.5-point ceiling. Boston has also been a tricky opponent for this line, with Allen clearing it in one of four games versus the Celtics.

The Pick: Wendell Carter Under 9.5 Points

Where to Watch the Los Angeles Lakers vs. Orlando Magic Tonight

• Arena: Crypto.com Arena
• Location: Los Angeles, CA
• TV: NBA League Pass
• Date: February 24, 2026
• Time: 10:30 PM ET

Odds as of February 24, 2026, at 11:26 AM ET

Wendell Carter has been stuck in the mud as a scorer. He’s hit 9.5 points in 20% of his last five and just 20% of his last ten. He had been on a five-game miss streak before scoring 15 against the Clippers on Sunday. The floor is also telling, with an 8.0-point floor against a 9.5 line. The matchup is not screaming get-right either, with Los Angeles allowing 9.9 points in this bucket and ranking 24th. Carter’s season average is 11.3, so this is a form bet, not a talent bet.

The Pick: Jerami Grant Under 20.5 Points

Where to Watch the Portland Trail Blazers vs. Minnesota Timberwolves Tonight

• Arena: Moda Center
• Location: Portland, OR
• TV: NBA League Pass
• Date: February 24, 2026
• Time: 11:00 PM ET

Odds as of February 24, 2026, at 11:26 AM ET

Jerami Grant is priced like a steady twenty-plus scorer, but the recent results say otherwise. He’s cleared 20.5 points in 20% of his last five and 30% of his last ten. The floor is 15.0 points, and the ceiling is 22.0, leaving little margin at this number. The head-to-head history is rough, too, with Grant hitting this line in just two of nine games against Minnesota.

The SportsGrid Betting Edge

This slate has a clean mix. Two overs tied to strong recent hit rates, and two unders where the miss streaks are real. Keep shopping for the best number, especially on plus-money looks.

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Our player prop picks are produced by the SportsGrid NBA editorial team, which is a collaborative unit of basketball and betting experts, data scientists, and market specialists dedicated to uncovering high-probability edges. By combining proprietary predictive modeling with real-time market data, the team distills complex situational trends—including rest advantages, injury impacts, and schedule spots—into actionable bets.

Data from Blitz. Stats as of February 24. This article has been published by Senior Editor Tyler Mason.