Top NBA Player Prop Picks to Target for Friday, February 27
Tyler Mason
Host · Writer
A couple of these boards are screaming for a simple approach. Ride the guys sitting at five-of-five form. Then take shots at plus money where the market is still hanging a line that has not shown up lately.
That creates a clean four-pack tonight. Two high-confidence overs with perfect recent form. Two fades where the last week has been rough and the market hasn’t caught up.
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The Pick: Jarrett Allen Over 8.5 Rebounds
Where to Watch the Detroit Pistons vs. Cleveland Cavaliers Tonight
- Arena: Rocket Mortgage FieldHouse
- Location: Cleveland, OH
- TV: ESPN
- Date: February 27, 2026
- Time: 7:00 PM ET
| Betting Metric | Value | Implied Probability |
| Consensus Moneyline | -144 | 59.0% |
Odds as of February 27, 2026, at 11:26 AM ET
Jarrett Allen walks in with the cleanest recent profile on the board. He has cleared 8.5 rebounds in five of his last five games. That is the kind of streak worth paying for. The line is still sitting under double-digit boards at 8.5, which keeps the path simple. Allen also shows a stable scoring base with 15.5 points, hitting in three of his last five, so he is not living on rebounds alone. At -144, this is a consistency tax, but the form supports it.
The Pick: Nic Claxton Over 10.5 Points
Where to Watch the Boston Celtics vs. Brooklyn Nets Tonight
- Arena: Barclays Center
- Location: Brooklyn, NY
- TV: NBA League Pass
- Date: February 27, 2026
- Time: 7:30 PM ET
| Betting Metric | Value | Implied Probability |
| Consensus Moneyline | -104 | 51.0% |
Odds as of February 27, 2026, at 11:26 AM ET
Nic Claxton is sitting on a perfect heater at this number. He has cleared 10.5 points in five of his last five games. The price is basically a coin flip at -104, which is rare for a five-of-five trend. The line is also modest for a player showing that kind of scoring floor. This is the type of over that does not need a perfect matchup. It just needs the same role to hold.
The Pick: Tobias Harris Under 13.5 Points
Where to Watch the Detroit Pistons vs. Cleveland Cavaliers Tonight
- Arena: Rocket Mortgage FieldHouse
- Location: Cleveland, OH
- TV: ESPN
- Date: February 27, 2026
- Time: 7:00 PM ET
| Betting Metric | Value | Implied Probability |
| Consensus Moneyline | +100 | 50.0% |
Odds as of February 27, 2026, at 11:26 AM ET
Tobias Harris is being priced as if his scoring has been steady. It has not. He has cleared 13.5 points in one of his last five games, yet the under is still sitting at even money. That is the edge. Harris has also been doing his work elsewhere, with 5.5 rebounds, hitting in five of his last five. That matters because it hints at a stat-line shift. If the boards are coming, the points do not have to. At +100, the under does not need perfection to be profitable.
The Pick: Shai Gilgeous-Alexander Under 1.5 Three-Pointers Made
Where to Watch the Oklahoma City Thunder vs. Denver Nuggets Tonight
- Arena: Paycom Center
- Location: Oklahoma City, OK
- TV: ESPN
- Date: February 27, 2026
- Time: 9:30 PM ET
| Betting Metric | Value | Implied Probability |
| Consensus Moneyline | -130 | 56.5% |
Odds as of February 27, 2026, at 11:26 AM ET
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander is still being dealt a three-point line that has not been cashing. He has gone over 1.5 three-pointers made in zero of his last five games. Yet the market is pricing this at only -130, implying a 56.5% chance — a number that feels far too low given a perfect zero-of-five recent trend. That is the bet. This is not a fade of his overall production, either. Gilgeous-Alexander has still cleared 28.5 points in three of his last five and 38.5 points, rebounds, and assists in three of his last five. The scoring is there. The threes have not been.
The SportsGrid Betting Edge
Tonight’s card is about letting recent form do the heavy lifting. Two overs come with five-of-five momentum. Two unders come with plus-money pricing against cold trends.
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Our player prop picks are produced by the SportsGrid NBA editorial team, which is a collaborative unit of basketball and betting experts, data scientists, and market specialists dedicated to uncovering high-probability edges. By combining proprietary predictive modeling with real-time market data, the team distills complex situational trends—including rest advantages, injury impacts, and schedule spots—into actionable bets.
Data from Blitz. Stats as of February 27. This article has been published by Senior Editor Tyler Mason.
