Dallas Mavericks vs Minnesota Timberwolves Best NBA Bet: Expert Pick For Feb 20

The market is basically begging you to lay it with the Minnesota Timberwolves tonight. Minnesota is -13.5 at home with a cartoonish -710 moneyline, and it’s not subtle why. The Dallas Mavericks walk into Target Center sitting at 1-9 in their last ten road games, and they’re doing it without Cooper Flagg.

This is a post-break reset spot, and I’m treating it like one. Both teams have had over a week’s rest, so there’s no schedule excuse. This is just Minnesota’s depth and two-way profile versus a Dallas roster missing its top-end ceiling.

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Best Bet: Minnesota Timberwolves -13.5 (-110) (3 units)

Where to Watch the Dallas Mavericks vs. Minnesota Timberwolves Tonight

Minnesota is built to win these games by margin. They’re 4th in points at 119.7 and 7th in offensive rating at 118.1, which is exactly what you want when you’re laying a big number. They can score without needing a perfect half-court night. And they’re not a run-and-gun fraud either. Minnesota is 9th in defensive rating at 113.4 and 12th in points allowed at 114.8, so Dallas doesn’t get any easy breathing room.

Now look at what Dallas is bringing to the table. The Mavericks are 22nd in points at 113.9, 26th in offensive rating at 111.0, and a brutal 29th in made threes at 10.9. That last one matters. Big spreads get scary when the dog can bomb threes and backdoor you late. Dallas doesn’t have that profile. And the injury list is the knockout punch: Cooper Flagg (midfoot) is out. Flagg’s season line matters here too – he’s at 20.4 points, 6.6 rebounds, and 4.1 assists per game – and that’s a lot of creation and shot-making to replace.

The situational angle lines up, too. Minnesota is 7-3 at home with 6-4 against the spread in their last ten. Dallas is 1-9 on the road with 3-7 against the spread in their last ten. That’s the exact split I want when the number is inflated. The better team is also the more trustworthy team in this specific environment.

The risk is obvious: -13.5 is a big ask in the NBA. Garbage time is real. If Minnesota gets up twenty, you’re sweating bench minutes and late fouls. Dallas also has enough competent bodies to compete for stretches, especially if Max Christie (ankle) and Daniel Gafford (ankle) end up playing. But the way Dallas scores – or doesn’t score – is why I’m still stepping on the gas. Bottom-two in made threes plus a bottom-five offense by rating is how you lose by fifteen without it ever feeling dramatic.

The SportsGrid Betting Edge

This is a simple handicap with sharp edges. Minnesota can score (119.7 points per game) and defend (113.4 defensive rating), while Dallas is 1-9 on the road without Flagg. I’m laying it. 

Our picks against the spread are produced by the SportsGrid NBA editorial team, which is a collaborative unit of basketball and betting experts, data scientists, and market specialists dedicated to uncovering high-probability edges. By combining proprietary predictive modeling with real-time market data, the team distills complex situational trends—including rest advantages, injury impacts, and schedule spots—into actionable bets. 

Data from Blitz. Stats as of February 20. This article has been published by Editor-in-Chief Daniel Mogollon.