Best NBA Bets Saturday, February 7: Trends, Predictions & Picks for Tonight

The trade deadline didn’t just shake up rosters – it ripped holes in rotations. That’s the story of this full ten-game board. We’ve got one game where both teams are on a back-to-back (Memphis-Portland), one monster number (Cleveland laying 12.5 in Sacramento), and a couple of spreads that look like they’re still catching up to who’s actually suiting up. We’re 38-27 on the season (4-2 this week), and I’m pressing the spots where the matchup math is clean.

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Best Bet: Oklahoma City Thunder -3.5 (3 units)

Where to Watch the Oklahoma City Thunder vs. Houston Rockets Tonight

• • Arena: Paycom Center

• • Location: Oklahoma City, OK

• • Date: February 7, 2026

• • Time: 03:30 PM ET

NBA Betting Odds Today: Thunder vs. Rockets Moneyline, Spread & Kalshi Probabilities

Odds as of February 07, 2026, at 11:26 AM ET

This is a bet on Oklahoma City‘s identity. They’re first in points allowed (107.9) and first in defensive rating (107.4). That’s the kind of defense that travels to any matchup, even when the offense is missing pieces. We’re confident with this OKC play even with Shai Gilgeous-Alexander missing. And they create extra possessions too – second in turnovers forced (17.3) with the second-best turnover rate on offense (12.3, second).

Houston is good. I’m not denying that. But the market is asking them to hang in a half-court game against the best defense in the league, while they’re already twenty-sixth in made threes (11.2) and twenty-first in turnovers (15.3). That’s a bad combination when the opponent is third in steals (9.9) and thrives on mistakes.

And the spread angle matters. Houston is 3-7 against the spread in their last ten. Oklahoma City isn’t a cover machine lately either, at 4-6 against the spread in their previous ten, but I’m laying a short number because the profile gap is real. First in points (120.2) vs. nineteenth (115.2). First in defense vs. fifth. Give me the team that can win ugly and still separate.

Expert Pick: San Antonio Spurs -10.0 (2 units)

Where to Watch the San Antonio Spurs vs. Dallas Mavericks Tonight

• • Arena: Frost Bank Center

• • Location: San Antonio, TX

• • Date: February 7, 2026

• • Time: 06:00 PM ET

NBA Betting Odds Today: Spurs vs. Mavericks Moneyline, Spread & Kalshi Probabilities

Odds as of February 07, 2026, at 11:26 AM ET

This is where I’m willing to lay it. San Antonio has the two things you want when you’re giving points: a top-ten offense (117.2 points, tenth) and an elite defense (111.9 defensive rating, third). That’s how you build margin. That’s how you keep it.

Dallas walks in with a profile that screams leak. They’re twenty-sixth in offensive rating (111.1) and twenty-eighth in rebounds allowed (47.0). Now put them in a building against a Spurs team that’s second in rebounds (46.5). That’s extra shots for the favorite. That’s how double-digits get covered.

And the timing is brutal for Dallas. The Mavericks just took on a massive trade deadline pivot. Dallas received Khris Middleton, Tyus Jones, and Marvin Bagley III in the three-team deal that sent Anthony Davis to the Washington Wizards. Tonight, Middleton is doubtful, and Jones and Bagley are probable. That’s not continuity. That’s a rotation trying to learn names in the huddle.

San Antonio’s side isn’t spotless either. De’Aaron Fox (soreness) is questionable, and Jeremy Sochan (strain) is questionable. I’m still backing the Spurs because the team-level edges are loud. Third in defensive rating. Second in rebounds. Dallas is also twenty-ninth in made threes (11.0). That’s not the profile I want when I’m trying to trade buckets as a big dog.

The SportsGrid Betting Edge

• • Best Bet (3 units): Oklahoma City Thunder -3.5

• • Expert Pick (2 units): San Antonio Spurs -10.0

Nine games. Two bets. I’m not here to spray the board. I’m here to get to the window with the cleanest edges. Ride with me, or fade me, but don’t sit in the middle and complain when the number lands. Stay ahead of the game and elevate your sports betting experience with SportsGrid.

Data from Blitz. Stats as of February 7.