X-factors for the 2026 MLB Season: NL East

With Opening Day rapidly approaching, the outlook on every team in baseball is evaluated by a clubs potential X-factors.

The players selected from each team come directly from Aram Leighton and Ryan Finkelstein’s discussion a few weeks ago on the Just Baseball Show. Links to each team’s specific breakdown are provided throughout this article.

Let’s break down the NL East edition of X-factors for the 2026 season.

Philadelphia Phillies

X-factors: CF Justin Crawford and LHP Jesús Luzardo

The Philadelphia Phillies are on the hunt for their third straight division title in 2026 — something they have only accomplished twice in club history.

22-year-old Justin Crawford, son of former big leaguer Carl Crawford, is expected to make his major-league debut as the Phillies center fielder. Philadelphia brass was adamant this offseason that it viewed Crawford’s imminent debut as a significant addition to the lineup.

Crawford ranked No. 79 in Just Baseball’s latest Top 100 Prospects list, slashing .334/.411/.452 with seven homers and 46 swipes at Triple-A Leigh in 2025. His 70-grade speed is elite, helping him swipe bags and take away extra-base hits in the gap.

The biggest knock on Crawford is his tendency to avoid pulling the ball and lack of power. However, four of his seven longballs last year came in his final 30 games of the season. Revealing that a shift toward a more power-oriented approach could be possible for the former first-round pick.

Philadelphia will lean on Crawford for positive offensive production to strengthen the back half of their already-potent lineup.

Jesús Luzardo’s first season with Philadelphia was a roller-coaster ride. Luzardo struggled mightily in the middle of the season but excelled at the beginning and the end.

He posted a 2.64 ERA in April, August and September but a dismal 5.42 ERA in May, June and July. At one point, he surrendered 20 earned runs across just two starts.

Despite his inconsistent run prevention, the 28-year-old had a 28.5% strikeout rate that placed him in the 86th percentile among qualified pitchers in 2025. His stuff graded out well, with strong marks in both FIP and xERA at 2.90 and 3.33, respectively. Those are indicators that he ran into some misfortune last season.

The Phillies liked what they saw enough to reward Luzardo with a five-year $135 million extension last week, locking him up before he was set to hit the open market at season’s end.

With ace Zack Wheeler slated to begin the season on the injured list, Luzardo’s performance will be key out of the gate for Philadelphia. Consistency is key, and if Luzardo finds steady production in 2026, he has the ability to compete for National League Cy Young.

Miami Marlins

X-factors: RHP Eury Pérez and RHP Sandy Alcantara

The Miami Marlins’ starting rotation sported a 4.84 ERA in 2025, ranking 26th in baseball. With two potential frontline arms in Eury Pérez and Sandy Alcantara, it would be fair to assume that mark would not be so high.

However, both right-handers underperformed last season leading to the rotation struggling as a whole.

Eury Pérez will not turn 23 until after the season begins and already has 39 big-league starts under his belt. He posted a 4.25 ERA with 105 strikeouts across 95.1 innings in 2025.

Pérez was susceptible to hard contact last season, allowing hard-hit balls 46.5% of the time. This stems from his reliance on a two-pitch mix, which historically does not bode well for starting pitchers given the fact that opposing hitters get to face them multiple times in one game.

If the wiry, 6-foot-8 righty wants to break out in 2026, he will need to develop a third pitch and add it to his arsenal. Pérez mixed in a curveball or changeup at times in 2025 to pair with his primary fastball and slider. Increased reliance on one or both of those two pitches could help unlock his potential and spearhead Miami’s rotation for years to come.

Sandy Alcantara proved that he can be an ace by posting a 2.28 ERA across 228.2 innings. That was 2022. This is 2026.

Since then, Alcantara’s production on the hill has dipped, including missing the entirety of the 2024 season due to injury.

In 2025 he returned pitching to a 5.36 ERA across 31 starts. The right-hander went against his career norms, surrendering frequent hard contact, failing to miss bats and generating fewer ground balls.

2026 is crucial for the 30-year-old, who has a $21 million club option due at season’s end. If he returns to Cy Young-caliber form, that deal will be bargain in today’s market.

When at his best, Alcantara and his sizzling fastball are among the toughest at-bats in baseball. He serves as a marquee example of an X-factor, given that he has proven himself as a frontline ace in the past.

Atlanta Braves

X-factors: 3B Austin Riley and RHP Spencer Strider

The Atlanta Braves’ 2025 season was a flat-out disaster highlighted by the underperformance of two former All-Stars.

Austin Riley has struggled for not one, but two consecutive years. The former top prospect finished in at least the top seven in National League MVP voting every year from 2021-2023. Since that stretch, he has endured back-to-back injury-riddled and disappointing seasons.

Riley posted elite bat speed and solid batted-ball metrics in 2025, despite recording just a 103 wRC+. He has historically been prone to strikeouts, but last season his strikeout rate jumped all the way up to 24.2%. Limiting strikeouts will be crucial for Riley if he wants to bounce back.

If the Braves hope to return to the postseason, they will need Riley to fuel their offensive attack once again.

Spencer Strider has followed an eerily similar path to the aforementioned Sandy Alcantara, with a dominant 2022 campaign and an inability to reach those same heights since. On top of that, Strider made only two starts in 2024 before going down with an injury.

In his return last season, Strider posted a 4.45 ERA across 125.1 innings of work. His strikeout rate dropped alarmingly from as high as 38.3% in 2022 to 24.3% in 2025.

He allowed a significant amount of hard contact, struggled with command and showed dismissed stuff. He looked like a shell of his former self.

With that said, 2026 offers an opportunity for the 27-year-old right-hander to right the ship. Like Riley, Strider will be central to a potential bounce-back season from the Braves as he pairs with Chris Sale atop Atlanta’s rotation.

The outcome of the Braves’ upcoming season may hinge on these two former All-Stars rediscovering their form, as Atlanta looks to return to October for the eighth time in nine years.

New York Mets

X-factors: C Francisco Alvarez and CF Luis Robert Jr.

The New York Mets’ lineup is stocked with X-factor players who are either hoping to return to past performance or to finally break out. Francisco Alvarez and Luis Roberts Jr. are tops of the list.

One of the players seeking that elusive breakout is catcher Francisco Alvarez. Last season was, in many ways, Alvarez’s best at the major-league level, as he slashed .256/..339/.447 popping 11 homers in 277 plate appearances.

The former No. 1 prospect in baseball made major strides with his ability to get on base, walking 9.7% of the time. It was not an easy year for Alvarez, as he endured a midseason demotion to Triple-A and multiple stints on the injured list.

Alvarez reinvented his approach after being demoted to the minors, adopting a more power-focused and patient game plan upon his recall. The adjustments paid off, as he smacked eight home runs and posted a 157 wRC+ after returning to the big-league club.

If Alvarez’s second half success in at the plate in 2025 carries over to 2026, he can be a legitimate middle-of-the-order power threat for New York.

Luis Robert Jr. is not only a major X-factor for the New York Mets but also one of the biggest X-factors in all of baseball. It is difficult to find another player in baseball with a career as up and down as Robert’s.

The 2025 season marked his second consecutive down year after finishing 12th in American League MVP voting in 2023.

Robert’s talent is undeniable, making him a major X-factor for 2026. At the very least, he provides New York with elite defense in center field, power at the plate and strong base-stealing ability.

The 28-year-old has the ability to transform New York’s lineup if he finds success once more in 2026. Signs point to that possibility, as he maintained excellent bat speed and previously demonstrated the ability to barrel the ball at elite levels.

A return to MVP-caliber form would be a luxury for New York, but if Robert can reach that level again, the sky is the limit for the 2026 Mets.

Washington Nationals

X-factors: RHP Cade Cavalli and SS CJ Abrams

The Washington Nationals are the only team in the NL East who look to be not actively competing in 2026. Despite that, the Nationals still have players on their roster who could push the club close to its ceiling with strong individual seasons.

Cade Cavalli was finally healthy last year after missing all of 2023 and 2024 due to injury. He returned in August and made 10 starts to finish the season with a 4.25 ERA across 48.2 innings of work.

Under the hood, the former first-round pick appears poised for a breakout season in 2026 after a strong showing in those 10 starts. Despite undergoing Tommy John surgery and missing two full seasons, Cavalli still averaged 97 MPH on his heater and limited hard contact.

His primary curveball fueled a 55.1% ground-ball rate while also generating swing-and-miss. Cavalli’s fastball-curveball combination can be lethal, as he is able to tunnel the two pitches and have them play off one another effectively.

Washington recently named Cavalli its Opening Day starter, and he has the potential to blossom into the headliner of one of the weakest rotations in baseball.

CJ Abrams had the best season of his young career in 2025, posting a 107 wRC+, smacking 19 homers and stealing 31 bases. Even so, there is still room for the 25-year-old shortstop to grow.

Due to his base-stealing ability, Abrams would be an ideal leadoff hitter if he could reach base more consistently. However, he walked just 5.8% of the time last season and chased too often. Adopting a more patient approach would greatly benefit Abrams.

Abrams also struggled against same-side left-handed pitchers, slashing just .231/.280/.339 versus southpaws in 2025. He posted only a 75 wRC+ in the second half of the season following a 132 wRC+ in the first half.

For a player viewed as a franchise cornerstone in Washington, Abrams has yet to produce consistently on both sides of the ball. His defense at shortstop has also been subpar, as he lacks range and posting a -9 Fielding Run Value in 2025.

The 2026 season will be a pivotal year for Abrams as he looks to finally put together a consistently productive campaign and live up to expectations.

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