Why Luis Rengifo Will Help Brewers Fans Forget Caleb Durbin

The Milwaukee Brewers have been the class of the NL Central for years now. Four of the last five division titles have gone to the Crew, as well as five of the last eight.

The formula for success is pretty similar from year to year. Assemble a strong pitching staff, play strong defense, and be smart on the bases. Make prudent free agent signings and trades to ensure a high floor for the roster every year and let one of the top managers in the league handle the rest.

The team’s offensive success has varied from year to year, but 2025 saw plenty of production across the roster. The Brewers scored 806 runs, which was good for third best in all of MLB behind only the New Yankees and championship-winning Los Angeles Dodgers.

Milwaukee had 11 players who played in at least 60 games reach a wRC+ over 100 on the season. One of those players was third baseman Caleb Durbin, who had a 105 wRC+ in what would be his rookie season. It was a pleasant surprise after a rough start for the team at the position.

With an open competition there going into the season, the Brewers manned third base with a platoon of two of the hottest spring training hitters: Vinny Capra and Oliver Dunn. The results were, to say the least, substandard.

Capra would go just three for his first 49 to start the season. Dunn wouldn’t fare much better, going six for his first 36. It didn’t take long for the team to make a change.

Durbin, whom the Brewers acquired in a trade for closer Devin Williams the previous offseason, would be called up in the middle of April, taking the place of Dunn. And that was pretty much that.

The 25-year-old would end up stabilizing the position, playing 136 games and slashing .256/.334/.387 with 25 doubles, 11 homers, 53 RBI, and 18 steals. He’d finish third in NL Rookie of the Year voting, just ahead of teammate Isaac Collins. The Brewers had found their third baseman.

Caleb Durbin Was the Brewers’ Third Baseman of the Future….Until he Was Not

The Brewers are a team built around young talent all over the diamond. Of the 13 position players who appeared in at least 50 games for Milwaukee last year, 11 of them were under the age of 30.

And for a while, it seemed like a vast majority of them would be coming back for the 2026 season. Coming into the new year, only one of those 11 players had moved on to a different team – Collins, who was traded to the Royals for reliever Angel Zerpa.

Without much competition for playing time, it seemed logical that Durbin was all set to be the team’s third baseman of the future. The near future, at the very least, considering some of the depth at the position in the minors, but potentially the long-term as well if he earns it.

Then, like a flash, he was gone, not to mention several other third base options. Less than a week before pitchers and catchers reported across the league, Durbin and two teammates, Andruw Monasterio and Anthony Seigler, were shipped off to the Red Sox for starter Kyle Harrison.

And with that, all of the third base production from 2025 was gone. Neither Capra nor Dunn, who had originally handled the job, remains in the Brewers organization either.

Talk moved to how the team would staff third base. Shifting Joey Ortiz back to third base, where he originally played for the team during his 2024 rookie season, was the most commonly proposed solution.

Instead, the Brewers went external. A week after Durbin was moved, the team signed free agent Luis Rengifo to a one-year, $3.5 million contract.

The signing wasn’t exactly inspiring to Brewers fans at first, as Rengifo is coming off one of his worst offensive seasons as a pro. In 147 games, he slashed a mere .238/.287/.335 with a 73 wRC+, all his worst marks since 2021.

It’s easy to assume that Milwaukee might suffer a drop in offensive production at third base this year, and that just could still be what happens. There are reasons to believe, though, that Rengifo could have the same, if not better, type of season that Durbin had last year.

Luis Rengifo Can Pick up Right Where Durbin Left Off

Though Rengifo had a rough go of it last year, he actually had some decent success prior to that. In fact, he had a 115 wRC+ in 2022 and a 118 wRC+ in 2023, both higher marks than Durbin had in his rookie season. Even Rengifo’s 2021 season was above average with a wRC+ of 102.

But that’s just one statistical comparison. How can we get the best idea of what Rengifo looks like at his best compared to Durbin last year, considering we’re looking at different sample sizes and varying amounts of games played per season?

No way is perfect, but for this exercise, we’re going to use 162-game averages. For Rengifo, it’ll be from his combined performance from 2022-24, and for Durbin, we’ll apply it to last year.

Here is the comparison by the numbers:

In this comparison, Durbin is more proficient in getting on base, hitting doubles, and limiting strikeouts. Rengifo, however, is more of a hit and slugging machine. Seeing as he plays for the Brewers now instead of the Angels, that could translate to additional runs and/or RBI.

And some underlying metrics show that there’s a chance to return to form. While Rengifo isn’t a Statcast darling, many important numbers weren’t suffering more than normal despite his poor performance.

Rengifo’s average exit velocity, hard hit rate, xwOBA, chase rate, and whiff rate were all almost right at or better than his career averages. At 29 years old and still in his prime, there is plenty of reason to believe he can bounce back by sticking to his game.

Of course, one has to consider the defensive aspect as well. For his career, Rengifo has been a below-average fielder at third base with -6 Defensive Runs Saved and -18 Outs Above Average over 1,417+ innings. Durbin was much more serviceable at +5 DRS and +2 OAA over 1,060+ innings.

That said, Durbin was also thought of as a below-average defender at third when he was acquired by the Brewers. Their fielding coordination coaches will look to execute a similar turnaround with Rengifo.

The Venezuelan won’t be the only one to man third base for Milwaukee. David Hamilton, who was acquired in the Durbin trade, got the Opening Day start and will see some time there in his utility role.

But the bulk of the workload should go to Rengifo as he takes the reins from Durbin. And while it wasn’t the sexiest replacement in the world, it could pay more dividends for the Brewers than most expect.

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