MLB · 9 hours ago

Top Notes From the Blue Jays’ ZiPS Projections for 2026

SportsGrid Contributor Just Baseball

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The American League East division is going to be very competitive in 2026, with nearly all of its teams in strong positions to contend for the postseason.

The Toronto Blue Jays have had one of the most impressive offseasons in baseball, and they are widely-regarded as favourites to win the division and defend their AL Pennant.

Projections can be, at times, a fickle thing that may not stand the test of time. However, this is exactly what projections are: educated predictions based on statistics to provide insight into a team’s potential success or failure over a given season.

The Blue Jays were projected by many sources to miss the playoffs last season, and they ended up reaching Game 7 of the World Series, so they’ve certainly defied expectations before.

ZiPS, created by Dan Szymborski of FanGraphs, is a widely-used MLB projection model that is revered as one of the best of its kind. In case you may be unfamiliar, here is Major League Baseball’s explanation of ZiPS:

Now, having established what ZiPS is and where the Blue Jays stand heading into the 2026 season, here are some ZiPS player projections worth focusing on for the reigning AL champs this year.

Position Players

Vladimir Guerrero Jr. might have an even better season than he did last year – After yet another incredible season from the Blue Jays’ franchise cornerstone first baseman, Toronto fans got a taste of what the next 14 seasons might look like for Guerrero as a Blue Jay.
ZiPS projects Guerrero to surpass his performance from the 2025 regular season in home runs (32), RBI (102), and wRC+ (145) with a slashline of .291/.376/.512. He had a record-setting postseason last year in which he set several franchise records, and he’ll be looking to lead this team again in 2026.

He’s projected to finish with 4.5 WAR, which would be Guerrero’s third time surpassing the 4.0 fWAR mark in his career thus far. This could be the biggest season of his career, and we could see Guerrero challenge for the AL MVP yet again. Age and performance comparisons to the likes of Albert Pujols illustrate the prowess at the plate that Guerrero will use to terrorize the league.

Kazuma Okamoto acclimates quite well in his first season in MLB – A pillar among the best hitters in Japan’s NPB, Okamoto will make his MLB debut in 2026 with the Toronto Blue Jays after signing a four-year, $60 million deal this offseason.
Okamoto is projected to slug 23 home runs, drive in 82 runs, and slash .251/.337/.463 in his first MLB season. Of course, that’s a far cry from his .327/.416/.598 slashline in NPB last season; ZiPS projects him to adjust to MLB pitching well, but not to the same level of success that he experienced in Japan.

A 2.9 WAR projection certainly indicates talent at the MLB level, especially since the first year of Okamoto’s deal will be more of a transitional period for the right-handed slugger. Toronto won’t be expecting him to greatly surpass these projections, but would certainly be glad for him to perform at or above this level.

Ernie Clement comes down to earth – Single-season playoff hit leader Ernie Clement enters the 2026 season with a bona fide starting role in the big leagues for the first time in his MLB career. He was one of the strongest and most consistent players on the Jays’ roster last year, especially in October, and his performance will be critical to their success in 2026 and beyond.
Unfortunately for Clement and the Jays, ZiPS doesn’t see him building upon his historic postseason performance. It projects he’ll post a 92 wRC+ with a .269/302/.392 slashline and a 2.5 WAR in 2026. However, one has to believe he’ll have a strong chance to outperform at least the .269 batting average outlined for him here.

Andrés Giménez bounces back from a tough 2025 – Giménez had what was debatably the worst year of his MLB career last season, posting a .210/.285/.313 slashline (.598 OPS) and failing to reach 20+ doubles, 60+ RBI, and 20+ stolen bases for the first time since 2021. Simply put, Giménez was bad last season, and the Blue Jays expect a heck of a lot more production from someone making upwards of $15 million in 2026.
ZiPS projects Giménez will come close to reaching all of the marks mentioned above in terms of offensive metrics and slash .249/.315/.376. His projected 3.0 WAR would bring him right back on track with his career standards, and the Blue Jays direly need him to improve his performance from last year going forward.

Pitchers

The starting rotation is strong but not *elite* – Coming into the 2026 season, Toronto boasts one of the most interesting rotations in baseball, led by Kevin Gausman, Trey Yesavage, Dylan Cease, and Cody Ponce, and with further options including Max Scherzer, José Berríos, Eric Lauer, and Shane Bieber (once he’s back from injury).
ZiPS projects that Gausman, Cease, Bieber, and Yesavage will all put up an ERA+ of 110 or above, putting them in ‘good but not elite’ territory. Toronto will need to rely on strong performances from names like Ponce and Yesavage, who have proven to have very strong skill sets but need to show it in the regular season for the Blue Jays.

Trey Yesavage‘s first full season will be a good one – Yesavage was the talk of the league in 2025 as he worked his way from Single-A Dunedin to striking out hitters at ridiculous levels in the World Series. He will be under pitch and inning limits, at least at the start of this season, but he’ll still be the same Yesavage that dominated hitters of all levels last year.
He’s projected to toss 109.0 innings in 2026 with a 3.88 ERA, 116 strikeouts, and a 3.79 FIP. Yesavage has never had a strikeout rate of less than 25% at any level of the minor leagues or MLB, and ZiPS has him continuing this streak this season.

A strong early contender for 2026 AL Rookie of the Year, Yesavage will be tested harder than ever this season, and he’ll look to continue the success he saw in the postseason last year. The Blue Jays will look for his projected 1.8 WAR to be a low estimate of his abilities if he gets a strong body of work in 2026.

Free agent acquisition Dylan Cease becomes Toronto’s new ace – The Jays’ new star pitcher is coming hot off a strong 2025 performance, being the only pitcher in baseball to have struck out 200+ batters in each of the last five seasons.
ZiPS has him falling just short of continuing this streak in 2026 with only 192 projected strikeouts for Cease, but that said, the system’s 164.2 innings projection would be the lowest total of Cease’s career since 2020. It has him tossing to a strong 3.61 ERA and leading Toronto’s pitching staff with 3.6 WAR, potentially earning himself the title of the Blue Jays’ new ace.
Jeff Hoffman asserts himself as the Jays’ closer – Hoffman had an up-and-down campaign in 2025, being on the mound for some of the worst moments of Toronto’s season and some of the best. He threw 68.0 innings with a 4.37 ERA. He locked down 33 saves, but was still very unreliable at times last year.
ZiPS projects Hoffman to have a more consistently strong season in 2026, posting a 3.38 ERA over about 61.0 innings with a 74/23 strikeout-to-walk ratio. While this wouldn’t be the most momentous performance, it would show that he’s ready and able to hold Toronto’s closer role. This role has come under some speculation, but Hoffman’s got all the tools to prove himself worthy of keeping it.